2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[gatorcane]

The GEFS says Happy October!

[jlauderdal]

The GEFS says Happy October!

If we had a signal like that in august, we would have 200 posts about it today, at least.

[toad strangler]

Hopefully SFLcane will be breaking out his ghost images in a week

[SFLcane]

Hopefully SFLcane will be breaking out his ghost images in a week

Hmmm maybe but it’s potentially not a ghost I think it’s picking up on one of these waves currently in the central Atlantic. The environment looks very ripe in the Caribbean if anything decides to take advantage. The focus is now close to home so we’ll see.

[skyline385]

Looks like another GFS ghost, can see the wave in the MDR not make it to the Caribbean followed by some spurious vorticity spin up near CA.

[SFLcane]

Looks like another GFS ghost, can see the wave in the not make it to the Caribbean followed by some spurious vorticity spin up near CA.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_z850_vort_watl_fh120-300.gif

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1576178416478396417

[SFLcane]

EPS dropped it, interestingly.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.postimg.cc/NFPSp1MR/B22-A0158-165-F-48-FF-AA09-0930-DE262-BF0.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/R04m3Ln0/92329915-9287-4-E57-A6-AD-AF885556-EA06.jpg

Wow, that run really has no mercy on Florida

[toad strangler]

EPS dropped it, interestingly.

Spooky

[skyline385]

This is a good time to post this

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1568279982136299520

[SFLcane]

This is a good time to post this

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1568279982136299520?s=20&t=Xl5lWM2Uuf4h_WV_NfmemQ

Lol we get it Could be a ghost but it’s certainly time to watch the Caribbean as the environment is going to be very favorable if anything makes it in there. Also this area is favored by Phil k and is likely to see above above average activity sometime this month. The genesis seed is potentially the tropical wave near 40 west. We shall see

[skyline385]

This is a good time to post this

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1568279982136299520?s=20&t=Xl5lWM2Uuf4h_WV_NfmemQ

Lol we get it Could be a ghost but it’s certainly time to watch the Caribbean as the environment is going to be very favorable if anything makes it in there. Also this area is favored by Phil k and is likely to see above above average activity sometime this month. The genesis seed is potentially the tropical wave near 40 west. We shall see

You don't have to tell me that, been saying for months that the Caribbean needs to be watched at this season

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 5#p3001915

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 8#p2988658

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9#p2985329 (called out Ian a month ago )

However, the current spin up still looks like a ghost from the vorticity plot I posted above.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1576216288925741056

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1575958722567774209

[GCANE]

Wave hitting Virgin Islands Oct 10 looks interesting

[cycloneye]

Wave hitting Virgin Islands Oct 10 looks interesting

Why is interesting?

[SFLcane]

[Stormybajan]

https://i.postimg.cc/ZRTDbj33/ADF6-FAAE-BB6-B-47-C4-B06-E-0-F152-BD12-B44.gif

Hmmmm I wonder if this will be enough to trigger a lemon this evening or tonight? GFS is very aggressive with it, forms a brief TD in 48 hours on the 00z run. Degenerates into a tropical wave again but then reforms near the leeward islands...strange run. Been watching this wave for a couple days and will continue to watch it especially given its getting convectively active now.

[Hurricaneman]

What the GFS has been doing through the last few days of runs is splitting the wave in two sending one piece north of PR while the southern half forms in the western Caribbean on a later date, my thinking is something forms in between

[Hurricaneman]

My thoughts on the 0zGFS is that the northern low is a phantom while the western Caribbean is the real deal since the GFS ensembles and Euro and it’s ensembles agree with the western Caribbean system