2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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weeniepatrol
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2301 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:14 am

00z GEFS..

Image

00z EPS..

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2302 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:52 am


Euro operationl has a very stout ridge in place which in most years I would say this late int he season is probably wrong. However, this is 2022 and we had a late start so lets see.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2303 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:18 am

Not that the GFS is to be trusted at 300 hours plus but the 06z run spins up a sub 930mb hurricane in the Western Caribbean. Of course, it very well could be a phantom. Let’s hope that’s the case. After Ian I think it’s fair to say that most would be happy to see the season be over.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2304 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:47 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:Not that the GFS is to be trusted at 300 hours plus but the 06z run spins up a sub 930mb hurricane in the Western Caribbean. Of course, it very well could be a phantom. Let’s hope that’s the case. After Ian I think it’s fair to say that most would be happy to see the season be over.


Unfortunately I can honestly say we are just getting started being specific with the Caribbean. We got lots more coming potentially.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2305 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:36 am

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2306 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:48 am

6z GEFS

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2307 Postby crownweather » Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:40 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:Not that the GFS is to be trusted at 300 hours plus but the 06z run spins up a sub 930mb hurricane in the Western Caribbean. Of course, it very well could be a phantom. Let’s hope that’s the case. After Ian I think it’s fair to say that most would be happy to see the season be over.


I actually said that exact thing late last night. I'd be more than happy if Ian is it for the season. I'm just drained and feel like I've had the crap beat out of me.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2308 Postby zzzh » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:51 am

Models are showing a MDR cruiser in October :lol:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2309 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:51 am

crownweather wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Not that the GFS is to be trusted at 300 hours plus but the 06z run spins up a sub 930mb hurricane in the Western Caribbean. Of course, it very well could be a phantom. Let’s hope that’s the case. After Ian I think it’s fair to say that most would be happy to see the season be over.


I actually said that exact thing late last night. I'd be more than happy if Ian is it for the season. I'm just drained and feel like I've had the crap beat out of me.


Basically the same here, my gut has sunk really hard like what it did when Ida made landfall in 2021.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2310 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:52 am

zzzh wrote:Models are showing a MDR cruiser in October :lol:


If this verifies, I would say "Oh no, here we go again . . . "
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2311 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:53 am

zzzh wrote:Models are showing a MDR cruiser in October :lol:


Euro correcting hard and fast

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2312 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:05 am

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1575508404738527232


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2313 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:14 am

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1575512426979524610


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2314 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:27 am



We also anticipate well above-median October-November Caribbean
Accumulated Cyclone Energy.


:eek:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2315 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:59 am

Sigh

Image


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2316 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:10 pm

skyline385 wrote:Sigh

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220929/8280df14281262dea8bc114514e8b3a7.jpg


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CA food there.. Lets hope. That track by the way is ridiculous.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2317 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:19 pm

SFLcane wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Sigh

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220929/8280df14281262dea8bc114514e8b3a7.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


CA food there.. Lets hope. That track by the way is ridiculous.

Having a hard time believing in this ridging setup for October

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2318 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:20 pm

SFLcane wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Sigh

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220929/8280df14281262dea8bc114514e8b3a7.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


CA food there.. Lets hope. That track by the way is ridiculous.


Seriously doubt that track. Would think it would head north instead. A bit concerning we are seeing a signal for another hurricane in the Western Caribbean.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2319 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:22 pm

skyline385 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Sigh

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220929/8280df14281262dea8bc114514e8b3a7.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


CA food there.. Lets hope. That track by the way is ridiculous.

Having a hard time believing in this ridging setup for October

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220929/7f88fd30048ad401e275e21c472fdb00.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Ya, I don’t look at any 500mb past 5 days and that’s pushing it. Should be a deep trough in There somewhere.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2320 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:24 pm

skyline385 wrote:Sigh

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220929/8280df14281262dea8bc114514e8b3a7.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


There's already chatter about development being a sincere possibility, but for now this kind of timeframe is just too far out. We will keep a weary eye out on the Caribbean though
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