2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[skyline385]

Confirmed happy hour GFS hates Florida

[Kingarabian]

Those vertical tracks look so weird.

[weeniepatrol]

Confirmed happy hour GFS hates Florida

https://i.imgur.com/5o7sCaI.png

someone take this model out back and put it down like old yeller

[Category5Kaiju]

Roses are red
Violets are blue
GFS blows up a storm
It's May, not October.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Roses are red
Violets are blue
GFS blows up a storm
It's May, not October.

More like
Roses are red
Violets are blue
GFS blows up a storm
Like we knew it would do

(it's supposed to rhyme...I wont tell anyone)

[Monsoonjr99]

If the GFS does verify with this system forming on the Atlantic side, I'd imagine it'd probably be something similar to Alberto 2018 (and nowhere near as strong as what the GFS has been showing for too many runs now).

[skyline385]

00Z actually has slightly weaker ridging than 18Z over the Caribbean...

yea this run is headed straight for FL

EDIT:

[AtlanticWind]

Moisture
accompanying this wave is expected to increase the chances for
showers in the eastern Caribbean through at least Tue night.
Looking ahead, broad low pressure may develop across the western
Caribbean late in the week.

From NHC tropical discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

[zzh]

This is different from Alberto in 2018. Alberto formed from "baroclinic CAG" with some subtropical characteristics whereas this thing is fully tropical.

[NotSparta]

These 970s runs are the GFS's major biases this time of year all rolled into one. Central America MJO/CCKW bias probably makes the CCKW a little too strong, weak ridging bias means the general CAG/TW disturbance is more likely to favor the Atlantic, overactive convective feedback makes a vortmax spin up pretty quickly, and the dumping of outflow to create an upper anticyclone, clearing shear, is another thing I've found the GFS likes to do. There is definitely some potential for something but if anything comes out of this it'd likely be weak and sheared, as usual for May

[skyline385]

These 970s runs are the GFS's major biases this time of year all rolled into one. Central America MJO/CCKW bias probably makes the CCKW a little too strong, weak ridging bias means the general CAG/TW disturbance is more likely to favor the Atlantic, overactive convective feedback makes a vortmax spin up pretty quickly, and the dumping of outflow to create an upper anticyclone, clearing shear, is another thing I've found the GFS likes to do. There is definitely some potential for something but if anything comes out of this it'd likely be weak and sheared, as usual for May

Agree with your points and I remember Andy said the same things on twitter a few days ago as well but even the EPS had a few members at Cat 1/2 in the last run and EURO has been much more conservative than the GFS the last couple of years.

[skyline385]

Meanwhile, Euro 0Z doubling down on the ridge. So GFS went for a slightly weaker one whereas the EURO went for a stronger one compared to the previous run

[DorkyMcDorkface]

So from what I've seen both the GFS and Euro have essentially doubled down on their scenarios tonight. No significant progress has been made where one model caved to the other in terms of which basin could harbor formation (I am not saying the Euro will radically change to show a hurricane in the Gulf like the GFS by the way). I still lean towards the Euro's solution of a dominant vortmax in the EPAC which could form into a brief TC there before getting slung into Central America, but with the GFS still in disagreement it still isn't guaranteed. Of course as I mentioned before, both models could end up eventually converging on showing the entire gyre getting buried into CA with no cyclogenesis on either side rendering all of this moot.

[South Texas Storms]

I find it hard to believe we'll see tropical development in the western Caribbean next weekend. Besides knowing that this is a common GFS bias, it essentially has little to no model support. The global models which have done best in other basins so far this year (ICON and Canadian) continue to show no Atlantic development. This sure looks like another GFS phantom storm. It's been a common occurrence in other basins with this model so far this year as well.

[FireRat]

The GFS run showing the FL hit on 5/25 is about as bizarre as it gets, wow. Somehow the model thinks it's October instead lol, I'd give it a low chance of even coming close to fruition.

Time will tell though

[kevin]

06z GFS:

[InfernoFlameCat]

okay wow that is actually no longer fantasy. Still think it will die in CA if it does form. Very interesting.

[aspen]

The GFS sure does want Alex to be a May version of Wilma. Pretty much the same track, except it’s further west in the Caribbean. If anything does form, a realistic upper limit will probably be a moderate/strong TS like Alberto ‘18.

[BobHarlem]

For what it's worth, no mention of this system int he first 2022 Tropical Weather Outlook that was issued just now.