2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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skyline385
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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#401 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 17, 2022 11:56 pm

And GFS finally figured it out, pushed it out into the EPAC!!!
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#402 Postby Meteophile » Wed May 18, 2022 1:18 am

With a system in the GOM developing right after. Still Not a good scenario.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#403 Postby Nimbus » Wed May 18, 2022 7:31 am

Meteophile wrote:With a system in the GOM developing right after. Still Not a good scenario.


My Tampa bay area lawn could use some rain.
Not sure why the GFS is bringing the moisture in with 968 - 979 Millibar surface pressures though?
The 250 mb Aether winds appear to provide a significant insurgency?

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#404 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 18, 2022 7:37 am

First 12, or so, days of the GFS are now believable. No Gulf hurricane next week.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#405 Postby hurricane2025 » Wed May 18, 2022 8:21 am

Always remember fellows 10 days or more usually fantasy land don’t buy the hype unless you have euro/gfs usually on board at the same time and sometimes that’s still wrong
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#406 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 18, 2022 1:15 pm

GFS continues to say "never mind" in the 12z run. Big surprise...
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#407 Postby Cpv17 » Wed May 18, 2022 1:25 pm

The CMC now has some action in the Gulf at days 9 & 10.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#408 Postby Nimbus » Wed May 18, 2022 2:48 pm

Cpv17 wrote:The CMC now has some action in the Gulf at days 9 & 10.


Nothing below 1000 Mb's though.

I checked into talking tropics to see if I needed to start my season prep early.
The batteries in my APC power backup were checked last summer and still good for an hour of run time.
This spring the watt meter on my UPS has been fluctuating like a door opening and closing?
I think at 6 years old the batteries are starting to draw more current with the trickle charging circuitry.
Ordered some batteries just in case.
I'm not going near the gas station till we are in a cone with these prices.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#409 Postby Fancy1001 » Wed May 18, 2022 6:21 pm

I guess that means the 7 year pre-season streak will come to an end.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#410 Postby Fancy1001 » Wed May 18, 2022 6:28 pm

We could technically continue it as an off-season streak if we get a storm in December though.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#411 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed May 18, 2022 6:33 pm

Fancy1001 wrote:I guess that means the 7 year pre-season streak will come to an end.


Not just yet: subtropical development is hard to forecast
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#412 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed May 18, 2022 6:48 pm

The 18zGFS is showing a storm forming around June 1st but if I’m a betting man the second week of June is when I feel Alex will show up and yes that would break the streak of years with a pre June storm
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#413 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed May 18, 2022 8:12 pm

We could get some pre-season development in about a week from now. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show an area of low pressure moving into the middle of the Atlantic circa May 23. While development chances for this particular system are very slim, this is the best chance of pre-season subtropical development so far.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#414 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu May 19, 2022 6:29 pm

That 18z GFS run was very fun to watch
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#415 Postby Cpv17 » Thu May 19, 2022 7:18 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:That 18z GFS run was very fun to watch


That’s about the time I’m predicting a tc to form. The first or second week of June I think is a decent bet for genesis.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#416 Postby zzh » Thu May 19, 2022 7:25 pm

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Long range EPS & GEFS. Possible CAG development around first week of June .
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Re: RE: Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#417 Postby skyline385 » Thu May 19, 2022 8:24 pm

zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/FEfg7vg.png
https://i.imgur.com/zKbjzlm.png
Long range EPS & GEFS. Possible CAG development around first week of June .


The timing does match

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1527288213567483908


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#418 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri May 20, 2022 5:11 am

We could see an STS out of this:

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#419 Postby Blown Away » Fri May 20, 2022 6:25 am

Image
06z GFS creating EPAC & Caribbean model canes in the long range.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#420 Postby aspen » Fri May 20, 2022 8:01 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/GHkfPfB.gif
06z GFS creating EPAC & Caribbean model canes in the long range.

That’s right around when the really strong CCKW passes through, so the GFS is right about the possibility of TCG on both sides of Central America during that timeframe, but once again is getting too excited.
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