2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 01, 2022 7:22 am

All about the model scenarios during 2022 will be posted here. Let's see if there are upgrades to some of them.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:26 am

It is certainly intriguing that both global major global models (ECMWF and GFS) see a very slim chance of development around January 12 at 40W 30N. These might be bogus model runs, so we need to see more runs.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:00 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:It is certainly intriguing that both global major global models (ECMWF and GFS) see a very slim chance of development around January 12 at 40W 30N. These might be bogus model runs, so we need to see more runs.

https://i.postimg.cc/hG3ScDPr/ecmwf-uv850-vort-atl-6.png
https://i.postimg.cc/Jhh1fDm0/gfs-z850-vort-atl-21.png


Obviously chances are low but how crazy would it be to get Alex in January for the 2nd time in a row?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#4 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:39 am

2016 repeat? :lol:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#5 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:25 am

If Alex just somehow does its usual thing and be this crazy anomaly and form in January again, then maybe we should just retire "Alex" and replace it with another A name like "Adam," "Arnold," or "Archer." Let's see if the List 2 A storm continues its uncanniness thing....oh wait, but we need Alex and Alex only to do that, getting rid of him would only minimize the fun :D :D :D
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#6 Postby Teban54 » Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:25 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:If Alex just somehow does its usual thing and be this crazy anomaly and form in January again, then maybe we should just retire "Alex" and replace it with another A name like "Adam," "Arnold," or "Archer." Let's see if the List 2 A storm continues its uncanniness thing....oh wait, but we need Alex and Alex only to do that, getting rid of him would only minimize the fun :D :D :D

Make Alex a female name and move it to another list instead. :lol:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#7 Postby aspen » Fri Jan 07, 2022 1:08 pm

The Azores storm shows up on the 12z GFS, CMC, and ICON. The 12z Euro hasn’t loaded up that much yet.

I’m starting to regret being one of the three people to put “no” on the Alex poll…
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#8 Postby Teban54 » Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:12 pm

aspen wrote:The Azores storm shows up on the 12z GFS, CMC, and ICON. The 12z Euro hasn’t loaded up that much yet.

I’m starting to regret being one of the three people to put “no” on the Alex poll…

12z Euro has it too.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:19 pm

I may have to close the Alex poll much earlier than March 31rst. :D
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#10 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Jan 07, 2022 5:26 pm

The 18Z GFS does not develop this. This might have been nothing but a false positive.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#11 Postby aspen » Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:46 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:The 18Z GFS does not develop this. This might have been nothing but a false positive.

ICON is stronger, and this is just one model run. The vorticity that developed into a TC on the 06z and 12z runs is still there.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#12 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:10 pm

I'm just ready to grab my popcorn and watch 2022 pull another 2016 and be the 8th consecutive season to have a NS before June 1 (oh, and I do wonder whether such an event would hypothetically cause the WMO to decide to change to official start date of the Atlantic season to May 15..)
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 08, 2022 6:58 am

00z ECMWF very weak with it.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#14 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:28 am

The 06Z GFS and the 00Z CMC both solidly develop this system. The 00Z ECMWF and 06Z ICON both barely develop this system. This system is all but gone on the 00Z ECENS ensembles; the 06Z GEFS ensembles actually have not loaded yet. Regardless, chances were always very slim for development; the ECMWF gave this system a 5-10% chance of developing into a tropical storm.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#15 Postby aspen » Sat Jan 08, 2022 8:48 am

cycloneye wrote:00z ECMWF very weak with it.

https://i.imgur.com/nG2vlSF.gif

We might have another area to watch for development a few days after this first disturbance, going northbound from the Greater Antilles. The GFS shows it too.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#16 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Jan 08, 2022 3:16 pm

There is more model disagreement; the GFS, ECMWF, and ICON all develop this system; but the CMC refuses to develop it. As the 12Z GFS sees it, this system will form as an area of disturbed weather on January 9, detach from an extratropical low on January 10, and become a (sub)tropical cyclone on January 11. However, given the time of year, the marginal SSTs for development, and the lack of strong model consensus, development is still very unlikely; but it is still within the realm of possibility. If things get interesting, the NHC might mark a lemon for this system.

In 6-7 days, another area of low pressure around 70W 35N might try to develop into a (sub)tropical cyclone. According to the 12Z GFS, a disorganized set of thunderstorms will move off the coast of South Carolina on January 13 and form a bona fide tropical cyclone a day later. SSTs are more only marginal for subtropical development, and given the time of the year, development is unlikely. However, it is another area of potential development.
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Realistically, neither system will probably develop. The ECMWF gives both systems a 5-10% chance of development each, which means that the chance of neither system developing is 81.00-90.25%.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 09, 2022 11:33 am

12z GFS has it a little bit more strong.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#18 Postby Hurricane2021 » Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:32 am

Last edited by Hurricane2021 on Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#19 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:45 am

Hurricane2021 wrote:https://twitter.com/miguel__crf/status/1482344015945162752?t=qz_tEzls8pIA-pb6BjtRoA&s=19


 https://twitter.com/miguel__crf/status/1482344015945162752




I fixed it for you ;)
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#20 Postby Hurricanehink » Sun Jan 16, 2022 12:23 pm

What is the latest from the models about the south west Indian ocean? We are close to record territory for the latest beginning to a season there.
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