2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2541 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 01, 2022 6:20 am

:uarrow: :uarrow:
Image
06z GFS... Continues showing a low/TS/STS in the Bahamas in @4 days then moving W near FL then OTS...
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2542 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 01, 2022 6:58 am

Blown Away wrote::uarrow: :uarrow:
https://i.imgur.com/kHVy8Xg.gif
06z GFS... Continues showing a low/TS/STS in the Bahamas in @4 days then moving W near FL then OTS...


And another one passing over PR. We expect a big rain event here this weekend but hopefully with no strong winds.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2543 Postby SFLcane » Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:28 am

Potent hybrid system there.. certainly some impacts across Florida. Maybe some coastal flooding with the King Tides

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2544 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:04 am

cycloneye wrote:
Blown Away wrote::uarrow: :uarrow:
https://i.imgur.com/kHVy8Xg.gif
06z GFS... Continues showing a low/TS/STS in the Bahamas in @4 days then moving W near FL then OTS...


And another one passing over PR. We expect a big rain event here this weekend but hopefully with no strong winds.


Image

Yes, I zoomed out. Looks like a big low pressure gyre bringing gusty winds & rain all over Caribbean, Bahamas, SE CONUS...
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2545 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:28 am

*this not the lemon that the NHC has outlined now*

There is a major blowup in the GEFS signal for a system in the W. Atlantic sometime during the middle of this month.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2546 Postby HuracanMaster » Wed Nov 02, 2022 12:52 pm

Gfs has a 960ml monster doing a burnout just south of PR going N NE. Fantasy land range though 360hrs
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2547 Postby Jr0d » Wed Nov 02, 2022 2:41 pm

HuracanMaster wrote:Gfs has a 960ml monster doing a burnout just south of PR going N NE. Fantasy land range though 360hrs


The Canadian ensembles are also hinting at somethig, Definately fantasy land for now, but something to keep an eye on after the potential hybrid system is finished doing whatever it does.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2548 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Nov 04, 2022 7:57 am

All attention is focused on the orange (and understandably so), but it's also intriguing to see how the GFS has been rather interested about the prospect of a stronger mid-November Caribbean system.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2549 Postby Stormybajan » Sat Nov 05, 2022 1:18 pm

Lmao not sure whats going on with the 12z GFS this run, but looks like anywhere from the northern Venezuelan coast, Grenada, Trinidad and Barbados need to invest in a boat over the next 2 weeks :lol: :lol: :lol: surely doesnt happen?
Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2550 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Nov 05, 2022 3:54 pm

Stormybajan wrote:Lmao not sure whats going on with the 12z GFS this run, but looks like anywhere from the northern Venezuelan coast, Grenada, Trinidad and Barbados need to invest in a boat over the next 2 weeks :lol: :lol: :lol: surely doesnt happen?
https://i.postimg.cc/J0bP0GHx/ezgif-com-gif-maker.gif

if this actually happens, just like what GFS shows in this round, I delete my account from this community :lol: :roll:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2551 Postby aspen » Sat Nov 05, 2022 6:00 pm

18z GFS develops the same wave as the 12z GFS, although it’s slower to do so and only becomes a TC in the SWCar. In other words, similar to Julia, except it stalls out in the medium range. This wave reaches the Lesser Antilles in just 4-5 days and should be monitored closely.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2552 Postby kevin » Sat Nov 05, 2022 6:35 pm

18z GFS wants to do an Eta repeat.. Luckily still very far away.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2553 Postby gatorcane » Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:54 pm

We will be watching for development until Thanksgiving according to the GEFS :roll:

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2554 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sun Nov 06, 2022 10:38 pm

I think another Caribbean hurricane is possible before this season finally ends. These La Nina years are notorious.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2555 Postby FireRat » Sun Nov 06, 2022 10:59 pm

Hurricane Mike wrote:I think another Caribbean hurricane is possible before this season finally ends. These La Nina years are notorious.


Honestly wouldn't surprise me if this season continues into December. Crazy, I know.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2556 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:10 pm

The GFS and CMC show a vigorous wave heading west in the long-range with the CMC further south.

GFS:
Image

CMC:
Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2557 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:59 pm

A little more defined on the 18Z GFS also going out to the very long-range. A bit rare to have a tropical wave make it that far west at that latitude this time of year:

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2558 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Nov 12, 2022 6:46 pm

gatorcane wrote:A little more defined on the 18Z GFS also going out to the very long-range. A bit rare to have a tropical wave make it that far west at that latitude this time of year:

https://i.postimg.cc/XqbMPjxW/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh192-300.gif


Wouldn't surprise me considering how delayed this season seems to be lol :lol:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2559 Postby FireRat » Sat Nov 12, 2022 7:24 pm

gatorcane wrote:A little more defined on the 18Z GFS also going out to the very long-range. A bit rare to have a tropical wave make it that far west at that latitude this time of year:

https://i.postimg.cc/XqbMPjxW/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh192-300.gif


Owen is that you? :lol:

Yeah, in 2022 anything is possible!
Interesting track of that system too
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2560 Postby LarryWx » Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:02 am

FireRat wrote:
gatorcane wrote:A little more defined on the 18Z GFS also going out to the very long-range. A bit rare to have a tropical wave make it that far west at that latitude this time of year:

https://i.postimg.cc/XqbMPjxW/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh192-300.gif


Owen is that you? :lol:

Yeah, in 2022 anything is possible!
Interesting track of that system too


There's a weak to moderate signal on the various ensemble runs for something in the SW Caribbean from next weekend into early to mid next week fwiw. The 0Z GFS fwiw actually has a strong TS there then. Keep in mind that it will be pretty late in November by then. But it being La Niña during the active era, one never knows even though the odds are low (under 10%). The SW Caribbean remains the #1 most concentrated area for genesis though with less and less activity:

Nov 11-20 geneses 1851-2015: add 2016's MH Otto to this
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/nov_11_20.png

Nov 21-30 geneses:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/nov_21_30.png
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