2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2601 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2022 12:10 pm

12z CMC also develops.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2602 Postby Blown Away » Fri Nov 18, 2022 1:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z CMC also develops.

https://i.imgur.com/IgmFvw9.gif


GFS/CMC have something wobbling around the Caribbean in @10 days. Based on the previous model runs no idea which direction it may go if it develops.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2603 Postby Blown Away » Fri Nov 18, 2022 2:53 pm

Image
12z GEFS
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2604 Postby SFLcane » Fri Nov 18, 2022 2:55 pm

Blown Away wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z CMC also develops.

https://i.imgur.com/IgmFvw9.gif


GFS/CMC have something wobbling around the Caribbean in @10 days. Based on the previous model runs no idea which direction it may go if it develops.


Better not be north with 2,000 kts of shear near the conus. Caribbean though still fair game I guess.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2605 Postby gatorcane » Fri Nov 18, 2022 6:30 pm

This does not looks like a phantom as development is from the vigorous wave over the South-Central Atlantic as you can see from the 18Z GFS 0-192 hour animation:

Image

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2606 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2022 6:52 pm

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2607 Postby LarryWx » Fri Nov 18, 2022 8:43 pm

Climo says extremely unlikely, but fwiw I count a rather notable 6 of the 52 (12%) 12Z EPS members with a TS in the W Car between 11/27 and 12/3. That compares to only 1, 3, and 0 on the prior three long range runs. That is not exactly what one would expect to see that late in the season on the EPS. On the GEFS or GEPS, 12% wouldn't be notable.

Til 12Z today, this was purely a GFS out in fantasy land storm. But the 12Z CMC had something and now the EPS is possibly doing a little sniffing fwiw.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2608 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 19, 2022 7:07 am

Most active GEFS run yet, in the very long-range.

Note the month is really December: :double:

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2609 Postby kevin » Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:08 am

I know it's long-range GEFS, but still this has to be one of the busiest December runs I've ever seen for the Atlantic.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2610 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:23 am

What particularly interests me about this future system in the WCAR later this month is how even the CMC seems quite bullish with it (at least on the most recent run). Also, the system looks to be a slow-moving system, unlike systems like Lisa or Julia before.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2611 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:57 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The 12z GFS strikes again with a WCar Hurricane! :double:

It's still Long-Range. Each round has a different intensity and route. I think the GFS should stop showing this phantom hurricane within the next 7 - 13 runs.

Yes, but...
See CMC
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2612 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 19, 2022 2:28 pm

The 12Z GFS shows a cutoff low over the Eastern CONUS in about 5 days instead of a deep long-wave trough like the Euro and CMC show and the last several runs of the GFS. Might need to throw out that GFS run. A deeper CONUS trough will create a better upper-level env in the Western Caribbean for development with anticylonic flow.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2613 Postby blp » Sat Nov 19, 2022 7:12 pm

The EPS is much more active.

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2614 Postby LarryWx » Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:02 am

blp wrote:The EPS is much more active.

https://i.ibb.co/G01kV3B/eps-lowlocs-watl-42.png


On the run you're referring to (yesterday's 12Z EPS), I see two hurricanes (both threaten far south FL/Keys) and a TS. The 0Z doesn't appear to have any hurricanes, but I see 6 members that appear to be at TS strength (sub 1,000 mb), four of which threaten far south FL. I still consider the chance for TCG from this to be low though somewhat interesting, especially for the end of Nov.

The 12Z ICON has a very weak low in the SW Caribbean late this week that moves NW into the NW Caribbean next weekend with slight strengthening.

The models continue to suggest much lower than average shear/200 mb winds in the Caribbean for the rest of November. Thus there's a slight chance for TCG, which isn't typical at all for then. Typically the chance is near zero.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2615 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 20, 2022 12:34 pm

GFS and CMC have turned quiet and looks like the last 2022 name was Nicole.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2616 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Nov 20, 2022 1:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:GFS and CMC have turned quiet and looks like the last 2022 name was Nicole.


Hmm, wonder why they dropped the system; after all, while hard to believe wasn't there supposed to be an abnormally favorable CCKW period during that timeframe and a reduction in shear (as Larrywx pointed out)? I can't say for certain, but who knows if this is like those moments when the models hint at development, drop it, and then redevelop it as the time comes closer
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2617 Postby LarryWx » Sun Nov 20, 2022 2:55 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
cycloneye wrote:GFS and CMC have turned quiet and looks like the last 2022 name was Nicole.


Hmm, wonder why they dropped the system; after all, while hard to believe wasn't there supposed to be an abnormally favorable CCKW period during that timeframe and a reduction in shear (as Larrywx pointed out)? I can't say for certain, but who knows if this is like those moments when the models hint at development, drop it, and then redevelop it as the time comes closer


The GFS likely dropped it because the earlier runs very likely had phantoms (the chances of an actual TC from this remain very low based on history) and it is sensing reality as it gets closer in time. Just like when it had run after run with a hurricane, including some majors, in the eastern Caribbean prior to Lisa. The GFS has a strong bullish bias for genesis.
That being said, there still remains a very low chance for a TC based mainly on the EPS still showing some members with a TC. Very low chance as opposed to near zero chance. Very low like 5% or so. Yes, shear is forecasted to be well below normal for November.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2618 Postby LarryWx » Sun Nov 20, 2022 4:27 pm

LarryWx wrote:
blp wrote:The EPS is much more active.

https://i.ibb.co/G01kV3B/eps-lowlocs-watl-42.png


On the run you're referring to (yesterday's 12Z EPS), I see two hurricanes (both threaten far south FL/Keys) and a TS. The 0Z doesn't appear to have any hurricanes, but I see 6 members that appear to be at TS strength (sub 1,000 mb), four of which threaten far south FL. I still consider the chance for TCG from this to be low though somewhat interesting, especially for the end of Nov.

The 12Z ICON has a very weak low in the SW Caribbean late this week that moves NW into the NW Caribbean next weekend with slight strengthening.

The models continue to suggest much lower than average shear/200 mb winds in the Caribbean for the rest of November. Thus there's a slight chance for TCG, which isn't typical at all for then. Typically the chance is near zero.


The 12Z EPS is significantly quieter. I could find only one 12Z EPS member (2% of the members) with a TS+ vs 6 on the 0Z and 3 on yesterday's 12Z. Chances remain very low and appear to be dropping even further to just a couple of percent or so.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2619 Postby LarryWx » Mon Nov 21, 2022 4:39 pm

LarryWx wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
blp wrote:The EPS is much more active.

https://i.ibb.co/G01kV3B/eps-lowlocs-watl-42.png


On the run you're referring to (yesterday's 12Z EPS), I see two hurricanes (both threaten far south FL/Keys) and a TS. The 0Z doesn't appear to have any hurricanes, but I see 6 members that appear to be at TS strength (sub 1,000 mb), four of which threaten far south FL. I still consider the chance for TCG from this to be low though somewhat interesting, especially for the end of Nov.

The 12Z ICON has a very weak low in the SW Caribbean late this week that moves NW into the NW Caribbean next weekend with slight strengthening.

The models continue to suggest much lower than average shear/200 mb winds in the Caribbean for the rest of November. Thus there's a slight chance for TCG, which isn't typical at all for then. Typically the chance is near zero.


The 12Z EPS is significantly quieter. I could find only one 12Z EPS member (2% of the members) with a TS+ vs 6 on the 0Z and 3 on yesterday's 12Z. Chances remain very low and appear to be dropping even further to just a couple of percent or so.


Followup: Even quieter on today's 12Z EPS with no TCs that I can find. I think it is now pretty safe to say the season is over as I no longer even feel there's a couple of % chance for another TS. You can never say never with absolute certainty, but it is about as close as you're going to get to saying that in a La Nina in late November.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2620 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Nov 23, 2022 7:32 pm

Interesting that the GFS has been insisting on a late-season system in the central Pacific since yesterday.

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