2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2621 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 24, 2022 1:29 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:Interesting that the GFS has been insisting on a late-season system in the central Pacific since yesterday.



The models do agree on a robust disturbance, but I don't know about a CPAC minimal hurricane this late in a La Nina. Maybe something weak forming is a possibility. Even then, it'll need to be a very well defined system to be named or even recognized by the CPHC.Think 40-45kts or higher.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2622 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Nov 25, 2022 11:40 am

GFS still insists on the CPAC storm.
It shows a hurricane in 90 hours.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2623 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun Nov 27, 2022 5:15 pm

The models seem to have dropped the storm and looking at the conditions with the shear it's unlikely to become much. There is a wave that is curling up in the area as you can see on this loop.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2624 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 28, 2022 10:08 am

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2625 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 30, 2022 11:58 am

12z GFS appears to be delayed because of the model upgrade
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2626 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 02, 2022 9:30 am

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2627 Postby ChrisH-UK » Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:11 pm

GFS and ECMWF are showing it up in their models however the problem will be the shear as the shear if forecasted to be 50 knots.

ECMWF 10m wind 108hr
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GFS 10 Wind 108hr
Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2628 Postby Teban54 » Sat Dec 03, 2022 1:00 am

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2629 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:00 am

All models are in good agreement that the strong low pressure center will develop. The low is currently about 1000 miles ESE of Bermuda. It's already there. Easy to see the rotation. Currently, it's at the end of a cold front. The only question is whether or not the NHC will call it a subtropical storm, a tropical storm, or a hurricane.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2630 Postby shah83 » Sat Dec 03, 2022 1:19 pm

Doesn't look like a bad chance of a hybrid storm affecting NW Europe like Ophelia17?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2631 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 03, 2022 2:48 pm

shah83 wrote:Doesn't look like a bad chance of a hybrid storm affecting NW Europe like Ophelia17?


I don't think it will be a hybrid storm as it nears NW Europe in 8-9 days. By the time it nears the Azores next Saturday, it will be a large extratropical (occluded) low pressure area.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2632 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Dec 03, 2022 7:59 pm

Wow, it's still there on the GFS, CMC, and Euro.

Maybe there's actually a chance that we see the first December bona fide tropical system in a while. If I recall from earlier this year, the Storm2k user AlphatoOmega was pretty interested in the possibility of having such a kind of system this year.... :eek:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2633 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun Dec 04, 2022 1:38 pm

72 hours out looks good on the wind at 10m but the 200mb-850mb shear is 50+

Image

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2634 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun Dec 04, 2022 1:51 pm

Here is a 3 hour loop of the area in question, looks like it's starting to curl up.

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