2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS is making a lot of noise in the WC Caribbean 10/26+. During that period, the 0Z GFS has a surface low in that area. 11 of the last 13 and every one of the last nine La Niña seasons had significant western basin land impacts from a late OCT or Nov system. Just a suggestion to not bet on no more significant land impact this season just yet. We're in a different era now.

It has been somewhat consistent too

Seven runs later and the GEFS is still noisy in the WC Caribbean next week along with about every other gfs run. Obviously could be a phantom as the last released Euro suite was very quiet.
Anyone know why no Euro updates since 0Z?

[AnnularCane]

The 0Z GEFS is making a lot of noise in the WC Caribbean 10/26+. During that period, the 0Z GFS has a surface low in that area. 11 of the last 13 and every one of the last nine La Niña seasons had significant western basin land impacts from a late OCT or Nov system. Just a suggestion to not bet on no more significant land impact this season just yet. We're in a different era now.

It has been somewhat consistent too

Seven runs later and the GEFS is still noisy in the WC Caribbean next week along with about every other gfs run. Obviously could be a phantom as the last released Euro suite was very quiet.
Anyone know why no Euro updates since 0Z?

I was running through the GFS a little while ago just for the heck of it and saw a tropical-looking swirly thing heading northward from the direction of somewhere in the Caribbean sometime around Halloween. Same thing?

(It was the 18Z and about two weeks out, so trying not to get too excited or anything. I think. )

[LarryWx]

It has been somewhat consistent too

Seven runs later and the GEFS is still noisy in the WC Caribbean next week along with about every other gfs run. Obviously could be a phantom as the last released Euro suite was very quiet.
Anyone know why no Euro updates since 0Z?

I was running through the GFS a little while ago just for the heck of it and saw a tropical-looking swirly thing heading northward from the direction of somewhere in the Caribbean sometime around Halloween. Same thing?

(It was the 18Z and about two weeks out, so trying not to get too excited or anything. I think. )

Yes. But the genesis on the model is next week.

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF has not been out today because of this. Banner at Tropical Tidbits.

October 18: Public ECMWF data has not updated since the agency migrated to a new datacenter. Troubleshooting underway.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GFS is the 2nd run in a row with a flooding threat for southern Dominican Republic mid next week along with a possible 2nd run in a row with a later Bermuda hit. Watching this closely. Quite possibly a ghost since little or no support from other models. Also, 0Z GEFS not as active as recent runs so far.

[WiscoWx02]

06Z GFS pulling a wrong way Lenny in the Caribbean end of the month…gotta love the GFS sometimes.

[MetroMike]

06Z GFS pulling a wrong way Lenny in the Caribbean end of the month…gotta love the GFS sometimes.

Yes a hurricane that loses steering and gets stuck near the islands. Wonder if the Euro sees it as it is being hidden as far as I know.

[LarryWx]

06Z GFS pulling a wrong way Lenny in the Caribbean end of the month…gotta love the GFS sometimes.

The details of this run are really unrealistic with two TCs, including a ridiculous monster and a tiny TS that both rapidly develop seemingly out of thin air, that hit the Virgin Islands just 3 days apart.

Although these are quite possibly all just ghosts especially since there's little support from other models (though I haven't seen a Euro in 24 hours) and the GFS likes to produce ghosts often, this is the third GFS run in a row with Caribbean TCG as well as an impactful storm next week fwiw. Also, 11 of the last 13 Niña seasons, the last nine Niña seasons, and 2/3 of La Niña seasons since 1964 have had an impactful TC either during late OCT or in NOV.

[LarryWx]

06Z GFS pulling a wrong way Lenny in the Caribbean end of the month…gotta love the GFS sometimes.

The details of this run are really unrealistic with two TCs, including a ridiculous monster and a tiny TS that both rapidly develop seemingly out of thin air, that hit the Virgin Islands just 3 days apart.

Although these are quite possibly all just ghosts especially since there's little support from other models (though I haven't seen a Euro in 24 hours) and the GFS likes to produce ghosts often, this is the third GFS run in a row with Caribbean TCG as well as an impactful storm next week fwiw. Also, 11 of the last 13 Niña seasons, the last nine Niña seasons, and 2/3 of La Niña seasons since 1964 have had an impactful TC either during late OCT or in NOV.

1. 12Z GFS is 4th in a row that has TCG S of Hispaniola mid next week fwiw. This is also the 3rd of the last 4 with a flooding threat from heavy rainfall for that island as it comes in there as a hurricane.

2. The 12Z UKMET has weak TCG Sunday morning 200 miles off the SE US and it then moves slowly to just off NC as of 144:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 31.5N 75.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.10.2022 96 31.5N 75.5W 1008 32
0000UTC 24.10.2022 108 32.2N 74.3W 1010 34
1200UTC 24.10.2022 120 33.9N 73.6W 1012 29
0000UTC 25.10.2022 132 35.5N 73.8W 1011 28
1200UTC 25.10.2022 144 35.9N 74.5W 1011 20

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro is back on TT, but the EPS is still out.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro is back on TT, but the EPS is still out.

Oct 19: ECMWF + EPS plots are updating again. "EC-fast" + "EPS-fast" data remain out-of-date due to ECMWF supercomputer migration until further notice.

[Category5Kaiju]

12z GFS thinks we could see a considerable Caribbean system sometime next week

[MarioProtVI]

12z GFS thinks we could see a considerable Caribbean system sometime next week

Most likely a ghost considering bias

[LarryWx]

12z GFS thinks we could see a considerable Caribbean system sometime next week

Most likely a ghost considering bias

I feel it could easily be a ghost due to a lack of support from other models, but I'm not betting heavily one way or the other since it is La Niña in the Caribbean in late October, which has seen a good number of geneses and the % of La Niña seasons with late OCT or NOV geneses there has increased in recent decades.

The 12Z GEFS does have quite a bit of activity in the Caribbean next week but it could be just a bunch of ghosts. I'm curious to see what the 12Z Euro suite shows. As of yesterday's Euro suite, there was almost nothing.

Per 12Z Euro through 174: this GFS system has been given a name, "Casper".

Update as of 6Z 10/20 run: While GEFS runs still look active overall mid to late next week, they also look "Casperish" as there's no EPS support. We'll see.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS has a hurricane in the Caribbean in the fantasy range.

[ChrisH-UK]

Off the coast of Florida might be a place to watch this weekend. Most of the models have a disturbed weather off the coast of Florida forming a low and the head north, the winds in the models varies around the 30-35 knot but doesnt show it getting a closed circulation.

This is CMC's run

[LarryWx]

12z GFS thinks we could see a considerable Caribbean system sometime next week

Most likely a ghost considering bias

I feel it could easily be a ghost due to a lack of support from other models, but I'm not betting heavily one way or the other since it is La Niña in the Caribbean in late October, which has seen a good number of geneses and the % of La Niña seasons with late OCT or NOV geneses there has increased in recent decades.

The 12Z GEFS does have quite a bit of activity in the Caribbean next week but it could be just a bunch of ghosts. I'm curious to see what the 12Z Euro suite shows. As of yesterday's Euro suite, there was almost nothing.

Per 12Z Euro through 174: this GFS system has been given a name, "Casper".

Update as of 6Z 10/20 run: While GEFS runs still look active overall mid to late next week, they also look "Casperish" as there's no EPS support. We'll see.

Regarding the many GFS/GEFS runs with Caribbean TS+ next week, a Casper is confirmed. It now appears that the next real Caribbean TC would be in November, if any at all. The last two gfs runs have a H in there late in their runs. They're highly likely just ghosts, but I'm not counting out something impactful forming at some point in Nov. based on La Niña seasons of recent decades.

[Category5Kaiju]

Most likely a ghost considering bias

I feel it could easily be a ghost due to a lack of support from other models, but I'm not betting heavily one way or the other since it is La Niña in the Caribbean in late October, which has seen a good number of geneses and the % of La Niña seasons with late OCT or NOV geneses there has increased in recent decades.

The 12Z GEFS does have quite a bit of activity in the Caribbean next week but it could be just a bunch of ghosts. I'm curious to see what the 12Z Euro suite shows. As of yesterday's Euro suite, there was almost nothing.

Per 12Z Euro through 174: this GFS system has been given a name, "Casper".

Update as of 6Z 10/20 run: While GEFS runs still look active overall mid to late next week, they also look "Casperish" as there's no EPS support. We'll see.

Regarding the many GFS/GEFS runs with Caribbean TS+ next week, a Casper is confirmed. It now appears that the next real Caribbean TC would be in November, if any at all.

The only thing is, this system doesn't necessarily seem to pop out of some spurious WCAR convection. If anything it can be traced to a tropical wave that enters the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Thankfully, is very long range.

[LarryWx]

I feel it could easily be a ghost due to a lack of support from other models, but I'm not betting heavily one way or the other since it is La Niña in the Caribbean in late October, which has seen a good number of geneses and the % of La Niña seasons with late OCT or NOV geneses there has increased in recent decades.

The 12Z GEFS does have quite a bit of activity in the Caribbean next week but it could be just a bunch of ghosts. I'm curious to see what the 12Z Euro suite shows. As of yesterday's Euro suite, there was almost nothing.

Per 12Z Euro through 174: this GFS system has been given a name, "Casper".

Update as of 6Z 10/20 run: While GEFS runs still look active overall mid to late next week, they also look "Casperish" as there's no EPS support. We'll see.

Regarding the many GFS/GEFS runs with Caribbean TS+ next week, a Casper is confirmed. It now appears that the next real Caribbean TC would be in November, if any at all.

The only thing is, this system doesn't necessarily seem to pop out of some spurious WCAR convection. If anything it can be traced to a tropical wave that enters the Caribbean.

I was referring to something forming in the Caribbean next week, something that many GFS runs had while other models had nothing. Many of these fake TC geneses were for near OCT 26-7. Now the GFS has dropped the idea of TCG next week in the Caribbean. So, that is pretty much confirmed to have been a ghost.

The last two GFS runs have a H in the Caribbean after next week. That's something new and highly likely just another ghost considering the GFS' love for ghosts especially late in its runs. However, I'm not counting out the possibility of something impactful forming at some point in November based on the increased November activity of La Niña seasons in recent decades.