2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

In regards to that first wave, 12z GFS is just slower with development but still develops it. That's a dangerous scenario.

The 12Z GEFS says that the 12Z GFS' much slower movement of this AEW is a major outlier as it has the most active members far (over 1,000 miles) to the WNW of the 12Z GFS. Also, it doesn't have the weaker high that the 12Z GFS has in the central Atlantic. While not as alarmingly threatening as the 6Z GEFS, it is still another GEFS run with at least several members making it to the western basin with strong TCs.

12z is way weaker than 06z run. 06z was garbage fantasy it seems.

[aspen]

12z CMC vs 12z GFS. Two areas that develop in the latter appear in the former, but the CMC is so incredibly conservative this year that it doesn't produce any bonafide TCs.
Red is the WCar/Gulf disturbance/system, blue is the AEW that emerges next week, and purple is Wave 31, which doesn't even seem to appear on the CMC at all. Wave 31 looks like it merges with the later wave on the 12z GFS.

[Hammy]

12z CMC vs 12z GFS. Two areas that develop in the latter appear in the former, but the CMC is so incredibly conservative this year that it doesn't produce any bonafide TCs.
Red is the WCar/Gulf disturbance/system, blue is the AEW that emerges next week, and purple is Wave 31, which doesn't even seem to appear on the CMC at all. Wave 31 looks like it merges with the later wave on the 12z GFS.
https://i.imgur.com/rDydpYC.png
https://i.imgur.com/CKQe1No.png

https://i.imgur.com/NsQMbzB.png
https://i.imgur.com/lfaShVs.png

Purple is on the CMC around 15N 35W, albeit barely

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS, 0zGEFS,0z ECENS:



Less members, (like ECENS), but still 4 strong members heading wnw towards SFL

[LarryWx]

12z GEFS, 0zGEFS,0z ECENS:
https://i.ibb.co/L0vpj78/cchn.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/GR6QdjG/ccho.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/PcXPzkz/cchp.jpg

Less members, (like ECENS), but still 4 strong members heading wnw towards SFL

Yeah, other than the scary 6Z GEFS, this 12Z GEFS is about as high a threat to FL/SE US as any other GEFS run to date. So, whereas not as scary, it still suggests the potential threat of something bad. Also, the string of threatening GEFS runs in a row is getting long.

[LarryWx]

 The 12Z Euro is sticking with the idea that this lead AEW won't develop. So, the GFS suite continues to be largely on an island for that wave.

Update:  The 12Z Euro has no TC anywhere in the basin on its entire 10 day run.

[NDG]

Then the latest 12z Euro comes in and throws cold ice water on all of us with zero development over the next 10 days

[Cpv17]

Then the latest 12z Euro comes in and throws cold ice water on all of us with zero development over the next 10 days

It’s the Euro. I’m not surprised.

[Comanche]

In regards to that first wave, 12z GFS is just slower with development but still develops it. That's a dangerous scenario.

Development west of 60 is really dangerous, the long trackers get big headlines but west of 60 causes the most significant problems overall. The Atlantic is going to produce major hurricanes this year albeit a little late for some board members.

Something very different about this year that people should be made extremely aware of is the likelihood of extended power outages, due to a lack of transformers/power grid replacement parts. First landfall will use up most on the on-shelf equipment. The second landfall and beyond will be in trouble, so plan accordingly.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/power-comp ... 1659351601

[lsuhurricane]

12z Euro Ensembles are all over the place. Definite uptick for the GOM system.

image removed - personal use ONLY

[AutoPenalti]

[quote="lsuhurricane"]12z Euro Ensembles are all over the place. Definite uptick for the GOM system.

Seems like a bit less bullish than 06z

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has issues spinning up TC’s too fast in every basin with a monsoon trough. Given both AEW’s in the MDR appear to interact with such monsoon trough, they could be overdoing it here.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Then the latest 12z Euro comes in and throws cold ice water on all of us with zero development over the next 10 days

This is why the OP doesn't tell the full story; even though it shows no significant developments there must be waves/disturbances on the model which have triggered a response from the EPS, or else this map would be completely dead.

[Spacecoast]

12z ECMF Genesis tracks show two potentials.. (al53 / al55). Some members did not meet UAlbany minimum criteria

[skyline385]

Then the latest 12z Euro comes in and throws cold ice water on all of us with zero development over the next 10 days

This is why the OP doesn't tell the full story; even though it shows no significant developments there must be waves/disturbances on the model which have triggered a response from the EPS, or else this map would be completely dead.

Keep in mind the deterministic model is running at much higher resolution than the ensembles, it’s very easy to get disturbances when running at coarse resolutions. There are also 50 members in the ensembles and some activity amongst 20-30% members isnt reason enough to dismiss the deterministic model completely imo. The ensembles also have random perturbations introduced when initialising to allow for variations amongst different members, these perturbations effect the solutions as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NDG]

Then the latest 12z Euro comes in and throws cold ice water on all of us with zero development over the next 10 days

This is why the OP doesn't tell the full story; even though it shows no significant developments there must be waves/disturbances on the model which have triggered a response from the EPS, or else this map would be completely dead.
https://i.ibb.co/5n6t4Lt/ecens-2022-08-17-12-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows-1.png

Keep in mind the deterministic model is running at much higher resolution than the ensembles, it’s very easy to get disturbances when running at coarse resolutions. There are also 50 members in the ensembles and some activity amongst 20-30% members isnt reason enough to dismiss the deterministic model completely imo. The ensembles also have random perturbations introduced when initialising to allow for variations amongst different members, these perturbations effect the solutions as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, I would also say that is a small amount of ensembles showing development per disturbance considering that there are 50 members.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Then the latest 12z Euro comes in and throws cold ice water on all of us with zero development over the next 10 days

This is why the OP doesn't tell the full story; even though it shows no significant developments there must be waves/disturbances on the model which have triggered a response from the EPS, or else this map would be completely dead.
https://i.ibb.co/5n6t4Lt/ecens-2022-08-17-12-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows-1.png

Keep in mind the deterministic model is running at much higher resolution than the ensembles, it’s very easy to get disturbances when running at coarse resolutions. There are also 50 members in the ensembles and some activity amongst 20-30% members isnt reason enough to dismiss the deterministic model completely imo. The ensembles also have random perturbations introduced when initialising to allow for variations amongst different members, these perturbations effect the solutions as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I never said disregard the deterministic entirely, it should be taken into account yes, but even with the aforementioned issues you mentioned with the EPS it is still notable that members are picking up on development of some sort within the basin in multiple areas. That signal can't just be there solely out of a resolution bias. Even with less than half of the suite showing any sort of development it is still worth paying attention to, especially since within this range it is still a decent value.

[Cpv17]

This is why the OP doesn't tell the full story; even though it shows no significant developments there must be waves/disturbances on the model which have triggered a response from the EPS, or else this map would be completely dead.
https://i.ibb.co/5n6t4Lt/ecens-2022-08-17-12-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows-1.png

Keep in mind the deterministic model is running at much higher resolution than the ensembles, it’s very easy to get disturbances when running at coarse resolutions. There are also 50 members in the ensembles and some activity amongst 20-30% members isnt reason enough to dismiss the deterministic model completely imo. The ensembles also have random perturbations introduced when initialising to allow for variations amongst different members, these perturbations effect the solutions as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I never said disregard the deterministic entirely, it should be taken into account yes, but even with the aforementioned issues you mentioned with the EPS it is still notable that members are picking up on development of some sort within the basin in multiple areas. That signal can't just be there solely out of a resolution bias. Even with less than half of the suite showing any sort of development it is still worth paying attention to, especially since within this range it is still a decent value.

The operational Euro shouldn’t be used to detect genesis. Don’t care how high of a resolution it has.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS, which was already much quieter than the GEFS on prior runs especially considering it has ~51 members, was even quieter than earlier runs.

 From a pure model forecasting standpoint, this is a fun scenario since there's a pretty stark contrast between the sometimes bullish GFS suite and the very bearish Euro and just about all other models. So, will the Euro and other non-GFS models as well as those saying the lead wave wouldn't develop due to dryness score forecasting points regarding this AEW or will the GFS suite score a surprise "upset" win in being somewhat bullish on its own? We should know the answer for sure over the next couple of days. Some of the other bears may feel they already know the answer. We'll see!

[skyline385]

12Z GEFS still had some members developing despite the lack of activity on 12Z GFS. 18Z solutions are coming in now lets what it brings, If 18Z GFS also shows a lack of activity then expect the ensembles to start back-tracking soon. On the other hand, if 18Z GFS brings the systems back then 12Z could probably be called an anomalous run for now