2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

For this same AEW (#40) just off Africa, the 12Z UKMET now has it:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 12.9N 48.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2022 144 13.2N 49.2W 1009 30

[kevin]

This season so far has been really weird with respect to the models. On the one hand many of the models were very active but backed down once the timespan reduced. Tbh that happens in many seasons so that's not the anomaly. The weird thing is that the storms that do form this year often form out of the blue with middling or a lack of model support. It's happened now with Danielle and Fiona. Danielle went from 0%/0% to 60%/70% in 12 hours. And Fiona went from 70%/70% directly to a TS. Colin also sort of popped out of nowhere. Maybe I'm in a confirmation bias loop, but the models seem to be performing worse this season with TC genesis than in other recent seasons.

[tolakram]

This season so far has been really weird with respect to the models. On the one hand many of the models were very active but backed down once the timespan reduced. Tbh that happens in many seasons so that's not the anomaly. The weird thing is that the storms that do form this year often form out of the blue with middling or a lack of model support. It's happened now with Danielle and Fiona. Danielle went from 0%/0% to 60%/70% in 12 hours. And Fiona went from 70%/70% directly to a TS. Colin also sort of popped out of nowhere. Maybe I'm in a confirmation bias loop, but the models seem to be performing worse this season with TC genesis than in other recent seasons.

Makes sense though, doesn't it? We are in a pattern (background state) that is rare for the Atlantic and the models are only as good as the data going in AND the calculations chosen to run. In my amateur opinion anyway.

[Iceresistance]

BREAKING NEWS: Week 1 outlooks for Global hazards have been officially retired, it has been replaced by week 2 and week 3 outlooks now, here's the first new one.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gth_full.png

[Europa non è lontana]

It's that time of year again! Mediterranean TCs on fantasy-range 00z GFS, 12z Euro, and 00z UKMET, all in different areas of the Mediterranean and at different times At most, it's a sign to keep eyes on the models now that we're in the active phase of the Mediterranean, not anything more significant than that.

[ChrisH-UK]

The ECMWF has a storm coming from Africa north of Cabo Verde this weekend.

[Steve]

Kind of hard for a slower season for us not on all hours of the day to keep up with where to post what these days. It’s been a hair slower but we knew we would get to NS 5/6/7 by peak day. It was 5. It should be clear we would be around NS 9 or 10 by the end of the month. Might be only 7 or 8, so again behind. But I said last system coming up watch the pattern for something getting sucked into New England or Canada before the season is over. Waiting on EC which I won’t see until tomorrow am. But if it concurs, all major models will get Fiona into eastern Canada. Most of the reputable globals have a gulf system to close out the month. By mid week we will hit the 7 day window and get an idea if there really will be a US or Mexico threat next week.

[Teban54]

While all eyes are on Fiona and 98L now, there's good support from deterministic models that another tropical wave exiting Africa on 9/22 may develop into a brief TS, while moving N offshore Africa.

Euro, CMC and ICON already started developing this a few runs ago, but now 12z GFS is onboard. The fact that it's only 3 days out, and that GFS didn't have the issues of phantom MDR storms like Euro/ICON had earlier this season, makes me think this one has a higher chance of verifying.

12z GFS has a 994 mb peak, 6z Euro 999, and 12z ICON 996.

[Iceresistance]

While all eyes are on Fiona and 98L now, there's good support from deterministic models that another tropical wave exiting Africa on 9/22 may develop into a brief TS, while moving N offshore Africa.

Euro, CMC and ICON already started developing this a few runs ago, but now 12z GFS is onboard. The fact that it's only 3 days out, and that GFS didn't have the issues of phantom MDR storms like Euro/ICON had earlier this season, makes me think this one has a higher chance of verifying.

12z GFS has a 994 mb peak, 6z Euro 999, and 12z ICON 996.

Well . . . what if that system steals the name 'Hermine' and unleashes the 'I' curse as Ian to 98L?

[canefan]

Hello? We have multiple models showing a Gulf or FL strike and the board is crickets???

[Category5Kaiju]

Hello? We have multiple models showing a Gulf or FL strike and the board is crickets???

All talk about that system has migrated to the 98L model specific thread, it seems. I can assure you that once we near October and future systems start to pop up on models, then this thread will become much more active again.

[cane5]

Hello? We have multiple models showing a Gulf or FL strike and the board is crickets???

I think we have all been lulled asleep. There has been this hanging trough that could pull up what will most likely be a weather event for possibly South Florida.

[jlauderdal]

Hello? We have multiple models showing a Gulf or FL strike and the board is crickets???

We see it, no worries.

[tolakram]

Hello? We have multiple models showing a Gulf or FL strike and the board is crickets???

Canefan, you ok? As we have for the last 10+ years when a storm becomes an invest it moves to the active basin forums. The thread is right here. https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=123005

[Category5Kaiju]

Apparently, the last GFS run wants us to have Lisa by October 7

[Iceresistance]

Apparently, the last GFS run wants us to have Lisa by October 7

That would be a huge comeback after the August shutout. My new best analog is 2010 from that run.

[kevin]

How active do you want the next 2 weeks to be?
GEFS: "Yes"

[jlauderdal]

How active do you want the next 2 weeks to be?
GEFS: "Yes"

https://i.imgur.com/K23Q3Gf.png

Peak season displaced about 2 weeks, how does that affect the "end" of the season, we will see.

[NotSparta]

How active do you want the next 2 weeks to be?
GEFS: "Yes"

https://i.imgur.com/K23Q3Gf.png

Ok who spilled their spaghetti all over the Atlantic

[Iceresistance]

Tropical Tidbits has a unusual message, never seen anything like that before.

Due to high traffic this week, you may experience slow page and image load times