2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

How do ya explain the latest GFS run??
Movie Trailer: A NWS flunky, with some grudge against Purto Rico, acid tripping during his triple-shift at work who goes on to feed bad data into the upcoming forecast model run.

Speaking of acid tripping, have you seen the 6Z GFS with it having a second storm do a "wrong way Lenny" BEFORE it has the first one then make a u-turn and do something similar?

But to be more serious about a potential 2nd storm, the model consensus is suggesting that a 2nd TC may form in or near the SW Caribbean during the first few days of November. That includes the 0Z UKMET and yesterday's 12Z UKMET in addition to other models like the Euro, ICON, and GFS. The EPS, GEFS, and GEPS also are suggesting this has a good chance to occur in early November.

So, as crazy as it may sound, don't be surprised if both Lisa and Martin form in the Caribbean next week.

[Teban54]

How do ya explain the latest GFS run??
Movie Trailer: A NWS flunky, with some grudge against Purto Rico, acid tripping during his triple-shift at work who goes on to feed bad data into the upcoming forecast model run.

Speaking of acid tripping, have you seen the 6Z GFS with it having a second storm do a "wrong way Lenny" BEFORE it has the first one then make a u-turn and do something similar?

But to be more serious about a potential 2nd storm, the model consensus is suggesting that a 2nd TC may form in or near the SW Caribbean during the first few days of November. That includes the 0Z UKMET and yesterday's 12Z UKMET in addition to other models like the Euro, ICON, and GFS. The EPS, GEFS, and GEPS also are suggesting this has a good chance to occur in early November.

So, as crazy as it may sound, don't be surprised if both Lisa and Martin form in the Caribbean next week.

Don't forget the orange in the open Atlantic! The two Caribbean storms could be named Martin and Nicole.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS retains the idea of a possible 2nd TC (if the initial Car mandarin low actually has TCG) in or near the SW Caribbean in early November.

[aspen]

Now there’s pretty much nothing on the 18z GFS. I would usually chalk this up to the GFS’ issues in the Caribbean where it sometimes creates over complicated gyres out of phantom vorticity that don’t end up verifying, but this time, other models are showing a similar setup.

[LarryWx]

Now there’s pretty much nothing on the 18z GFS. I would usually chalk this up to the GFS’ issues in the Caribbean where it sometimes creates over complicated gyres out of phantom vorticity that don’t end up verifying, but this time, other models are showing a similar setup.

And it still has the 2nd low form in the SW Caribbean in early Nov (11/4). Let's see what this crazy model does with it.
Answer: very little as it kills it quickly in SA

[LarryWx]

The model consensus based on the latest runs of each model (12Z, 6Z, 0Z) continues to suggest a weak low in the SW Caribbean ~November 3rd. This is not Invest 95L and could be a future 96L. This includes the 12Z runs of the ICON, CMC, GFS. Euro, UKMET, and JMA. The GFS is another run that does a "wrong way Lenny" with it as it takes it ENE to near W PR. Take that with a huge grain, of course.

[Zonacane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1586034695938056193




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1585824249314320384

[MetroMike]

The 12Z GFS is quite active after 1st week of Nov. Not sure if any of this is related to current 95L.

[Category5Kaiju]

The 12Z GFS is quite active after 1st week of Nov. Not sure if any of this is related to current 95L.

Imagine if that happens as modeled

Would be one of the most active, if not the most active November ever recorded

[aspen]

All models show an area of low pressure forming in the SW Caribbean in 5-6 days, and then possibly getting pulled to the NE. Some develop this, some don’t.

[LarryWx]

The model consensus based on the latest runs of each model (12Z, 6Z, 0Z) continues to suggest a weak low in the SW Caribbean ~November 3rd. This is not Invest 95L and could be a future 96L. This includes the 12Z runs of the ICON, CMC, GFS. Euro, UKMET, and JMA. The GFS is another run that does a "wrong way Lenny" with it as it takes it ENE to near W PR. Take that with a huge grain, of course.

For the 3rd-4th day in a row, the 12Z model consensus (every model actually including ensembles) has a potential Invest 96-L with a new sfc low forming in the SW Caribbean on 11/3. Most of the models keep it weak though the Icon gets it a bit stronger further NW. The GFS as usual has the wildest solution with it having a H hitting Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, and Daytona Beach.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS is kind of similar to hurricane Gordon in 1994 just further south with the weird bends

[LarryWx]

18Z GFS takes the weak low that forms in the SW Caribbean on 11/3 and has a similar solution to the 12Z except that it hits Bermuda instead of Daytona Beach for the final landfall shown on the run. Taking with a gigantic grain because it is the GFS. Regardless of what the GFS shows, all models are still showing a weak low forming on 11/3 in the SW Caribbean, which would probably need to be watched as that is the most climo favored location in the entire basin in early November:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/nov_1_10.png

0Z: GFS I'll just withhold commenting on it right now.

Ditto to the umpteenth power for the 6Z GFS

[Category5Kaiju]

Hmm, interesting. GFS is now pretty bullish with 95L but also drops the idea of a strong early November northeast tracking storm.

[Jr0d]

It looks like there fairly good model consensus for a Nor'Easter/Large sub tropical system to develops near Florida early next week, then ride up the coast.

Something I will keep a close eye on. Regardless of development, it seems like there will be windy conditions for the Powerboat races in Key West next week.

[Hurricane Mike]

I'm still not taking my eye off the Caribbean until the end of November. La Nina years require extra vigilance watching.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm still not taking my eye off the Caribbean until the end of November. La Nina years require extra vigilance watching.

And past historical events can only tell so far as to what to expect in a given hurricane season, especially given how every season is different.

With how delayed activity has seemed to be this year, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this year features some strong late November system.

[BobHarlem]

12z CMC and GFS showing something forming off Florida/Bahamas late next week into early the week after.

[Category5Kaiju]

12z CMC and GFS showing something forming off Florida/Bahamas late next week into early the week after.

Quite the active November look from the recent CMC

[AJC3]

12z CMC and GFS showing something forming off Florida/Bahamas late next week into early the week after.

There's a very strong signal in the global models that a cut off 500mb low will form over over or near the Bahamas in 3-4 days. In fact, the GFS/CMC/ECM are in remarkable agreement with the 500MB pattern 12Z FRI. However, they differ pretty significantly with how fast the surface low develops (2-4 days later) and where it tracks. The 12Z ECM was by far the earliest in developing and retrograding the low, followed by the CMC and then the GFS, nearly 2 days later.

The stacked system will likely get trapped beneath a ridge to the north and retrograde west toward the FL east coast or SOFL out around days 7-10, potentially becoming a STS in the process. Still a long way off before details start to become a little clearer, but it's definitely worth watching how the models trend over the next few days. At the very least, I think we'll see a near gale force low develop in that area by early next week.