2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Kingarabian]

Euro and CMC appear to be backing off further EPAC development after Howard.

[cycloneye]

August 25. Is after the 20th date of the bell.

[PTrackerLA]

I have a gut feeling the models will come alive by next week as they all get into the August 20th-August 25th time frame. 12z GFS could be the first real sign, we'll see.

[mcheer23]

CPC has a moderate confidence of Tropical Development Aug 17-23rd
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/gth_full.png

[SFLcane]

CPC has a moderate confidence of Tropical Development Aug 17-23rd
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/gth_full.png

Wonder what that is based on?

[Ubuntwo]

CPC has a moderate confidence of Tropical Development Aug 17-23rd
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/gth_full.png

Wonder what that is based on?

Later in the period, one or more easterly waves propagating over West Africa remain favored in ensemble guidance, where there is also multi-model agreement indicating Rossby wave activity and enhanced convection in the OLR anomaly fields over the tropical Atlantic. While some probabilistic TC tools are less supportive of TC potential in the MDR, a moderate confidence area is posted over the MDR for week-2, which coincides with a sharp climatological uptick in TC activity over the Atlantic by mid-August. Should the MJO show better signs or organization over the Indian Ocean later in August, this also historically favors increased chances for TC development in the Atlantic basin.

In the Euro and GFS ensemble products, an uptick in MDR activity begins during the latter portion of week two.

[Blown Away]

GEFS on climo time and says switch on @August 20th...

[skyline385]

CPC has a moderate confidence of Tropical Development Aug 17-23rd
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/gth_full.png

Wonder what that is based on?

Later in the period, one or more easterly waves propagating over West Africa remain favored in ensemble guidance, where there is also multi-model agreement indicating Rossby wave activity and enhanced convection in the OLR anomaly fields over the tropical Atlantic. While some probabilistic TC tools are less supportive of TC potential in the MDR, a moderate confidence area is posted over the MDR for week-2, which coincides with a sharp climatological uptick in TC activity over the Atlantic by mid-August. Should the MJO show better signs or organization over the Indian Ocean later in August, this also historically favors increased chances for TC development in the Atlantic basin.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/1006639593346580571/unknown.png

In the Euro and GFS ensemble products, an uptick in MDR activity begins during the latter portion of week two.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/1006639390690377898/ecmwf-alt.png
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/1006640277768904755/unknown.png

What's kinda interesting is that the regular EPS has slightly dopped off in activity in the last few runs compared to the weekly. Both are also doing that thing where it is overdeveloping some waves inland which are seen entering the Atlantic as a TD or even a TS at high latitudes. It will probably change come next week I am guessing but its interesting seeing the EPS backtrack slightly when CPC is expecting an uptick in activity.

Today's run:


Last weekly:

[NDG]

Will definitely have to wait until at least the end of August for anything to develop across the MDR. The same Euro which had it right with 97L struggling & fighting a dry air environment shows continuing dry air intrusions across the MDR from the mid latitudes.

[jlauderdal]

Will definitely have to wait until at least the end of August for anything to develop across the MDR. The same Euro which had it right with 97L struggling & fighting a dry air environment shows continuing dry air intrusions across the MDR from the mid latitudes.

https://i.imgur.com/Xs4yGKX.gif

I dont recall ever seeing this much dust in our skies, it started yesterday afternoon. it's like the desert here..hot, dry and breezy. Dry is relative of course.

[jaguars_22]

ICON wants to spin up a quick storm for Texas Sunday!!!

[Wampadawg]

ICON wants to spin up a quick storm for Texas Sunday!!!

That would be great we sure need it

[Teban54]

12z GFS has a 999mb system in the subtropics next week:

[DorkyMcDorkface]

12z GFS has a 999mb system in the subtropics next week:

https://i.postimg.cc/Hk4qx6Nb/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh120-366.gif

Appears to originate from 97L interestingly enough.

[LarryWx]

Will definitely have to wait until at least the end of August for anything to develop across the MDR. The same Euro which had it right with 97L struggling & fighting a dry air environment shows continuing dry air intrusions across the MDR from the mid latitudes.

https://i.imgur.com/Xs4yGKX.gif

Saying "Will definitely have to wait until at least the end of August for anything to develop across the MDR" seems premature to me. Saying possibly or even likely waiting til the end of August is one thing, but definitely no TC in the MDR at least til the end of August? It may happen but we are far from knowing that with certainty. When you say at least the end of August, do you mean the last few days like, say, August 26th-27th or so? If so, that obviously could happen, but saying it definitely will is another thing. Or do you just mean late August, like 8/20+? Even having none in the MDR by 8/20 is still far from a certainty. Keep in mind when I ask these questions that I'm not one who has been hyping this season nor do I want a hyper season.

[skyline385]

12z GFS has a 999mb system in the subtropics next week:

https://i.postimg.cc/Hk4qx6Nb/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh120-366.gif

Appears to originate from 97L interestingly enough.

Funny how the warm subtopics seem to be more favourable than the MDR right now


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[Steve]

12z GFS has a 999mb system in the subtropics next week:

https://i.postimg.cc/Hk4qx6Nb/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh120-366.gif

Appears to originate from 97L interestingly enough.
https://i.ibb.co/rs9YmZz/ezgif-com-gif-maker-5.gif

Funny how the warm subtopics seem to be more favourable than the MDR right now


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Yeah it’s kind of been that way much of the last few years. We’ve seen plenty of storms intensifying at landfall and/or moving north of 27/28N.

[Steve]

ICON wants to spin up a quick storm for Texas Sunday!!!

That’s earlier than I thought if there was going to be anything near Texas, it would be middle of next week. Small chance that the MJO moving into Phase 2 this Friday or Saturday could help something spin up. There’s plenty of Gulf moisture to work with as a tropical wave interacts with a frontal boundary. It’s already rained 3x in New Orleans today so far, and we just went under a flash flood warning. I’m watching the dark grey clouds and rain move this way.

I still think it’s a small chance. And you never know with ICON as it sometimes beats the big boys in sniffing out development.

[Wampadawg]

ICON wants to spin up a quick storm for Texas Sunday!!!

That’s earlier than I thought if there was going to be anything near Texas, it would be middle of next week. Small chance that the MJO moving into Phase 2 this Friday or Saturday could help something spin up. There’s plenty of Gulf moisture to work with as a tropical wave interacts with a frontal boundary. It’s already rained 3x in New Orleans today so far, and we just went under a flash flood warning. I’m watching the dark grey clouds and rain move this way.

I still think it’s a small chance. And you never know with ICON as it sometimes beats the big boys in sniffing out development.

Looks like the NAM is sniffing something as well

[Wampadawg]

The ICON is still a believer in a shortie for Sunday?!