2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Fancy1001]

I'm sure that'll work out better than the last one.

https://i.postimg.cc/G2BCqfG9/B74-E856-D-84-D5-48-D3-8-B78-9-AAAEB9-DD71-F.png

Is every system going to aim for FL this year lol? Even the phantom CAG from few days back had a good number of runs towards peninsular FL...

Please don't get my hopes up.

[skyline385]

The operational 18Z GFS has two more potential Cat 2/3 systems in the EPAC lol, kinda hilarious if the EPAC manages 3 strong systems before the NATL figures itself out

With the current setup (ofc it can change being this far out) regarding the ridging, it looks like anything that does develop would go into Mexico or deep STX. I don’t really believe what the GFS is saying about the active Pacific. Doubt that comes to fruition.

The first system is already on the EURO and ICON not just the GFS so there is very decent model support here.

[ThomasW]

The operational 18Z GFS has two more potential Cat 2/3 systems in the EPAC lol, kinda hilarious if the EPAC manages 3 strong systems before the NATL figures itself out

I'd be willing to bet on that solution not panning out. In La Nina, as we all know, GFS frequently spits out runs like that, only for the storms to be limited to TS due to unfavourable base state, usual dry air problems, etc. You never know though.

[wxman57]

I will enjoy the next week of quiet tropics worldwide. May be a slight chance of an East Pac fish storm next week, but that's it. Time for some days off after Wednesday. Atlantic should remain quiet for quite a while.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I will enjoy the next week of quiet tropics worldwide. May be a slight chance of an East Pac fish storm next week, but that's it. Time for some days off after Wednesday. Atlantic should remain quiet for quite a while.

A little bit early to start jinxing stuff, no?

But yeah - NATL should be relatively quiet barring some subtropical shenanigans until we get the next strong Kelvin wave towards the latter half of the month. Could see another flurry of activity then.

Not sure on the Eastern Pacific, though - entirely possible we end up with another land threat before the month is out, given the typical synoptic steering patterns this time of year. That potential EPac fish could easily become caught up in a strong trough that opens a northward exit.

Also, there was a signal in modeling we may end up with a SHEM storm, which would be quite the shock. Don't currently believe in it happening, given the time of year.

[Kingarabian]

The operational 18Z GFS has two more potential Cat 2/3 systems in the EPAC lol, kinda hilarious if the EPAC manages 3 strong systems before the NATL figures itself out

I'd be willing to bet on that solution not panning out. In La Nina, as we all know, GFS frequently spits out runs like that, only for the storms to be limited to TS due to unfavourable base state, usual dry air problems, etc. You never know though.

It's normal to have early season EPAC activity regardless of ENSO.

[aspen]

EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all show the potential for a CAG Caribbean system early next week, along with an EPac system. The EPS is very bearish about both systems; the 12z GEFS and GEPS both favor the Caribbean system, although the operational 12z GFS only shows the EPac system. Could be another Agatha-Alex situation coming up.

[Cpv17]

EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all show the potential for a CAG Caribbean system early next week, along with an EPac system. The EPS is very bearish about both systems; the 12z GEFS and GEPS both favor the Caribbean system, although the operational 12z GFS only shows the EPac system. Could be another Agatha-Alex situation coming up.

The op GFS now has the CAG system.

[skyline385]

18Z GEFS

[TallyTracker]

18Z GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/exlTC2C.png

That looks like about 60/40 split between a Caribbean genesis versus an EPAC genesis. Considering the time of year, I’d still lean toward an EPAC genesis as conditions there are likely to be more favorable.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I will enjoy the next week of quiet tropics worldwide. May be a slight chance of an East Pac fish storm next week, but that's it. Time for some days off after Wednesday. Atlantic should remain quiet for quite a while.

You done jinxed it lol.

[skyline385]

This 06Z GEFS is kinda ridiculous

[aspen]

This 06Z GEFS is kinda ridiculous

https://imgur.com/N9ZZpTf

I’ve never seen the entire Gulf covered in dark orange ensemble members. The number of Atlantic members went up while EPac members stayed the same or went down a bit compared to the 06z GEFS. The GEPS also has a lot of support for something forming on the Atlantic side of Central America, and all global models show a CAG forming in 5-8 days. I think odds are quite good for some kind of CAG-relayed TCG next week.

[ChrisH-UK]

This 06Z GEFS is kinda ridiculous

https://imgur.com/N9ZZpTf

It's the GEFS, it doesn't have a clue so it's spraying it out to see what sticks.You will see things get refined over time, also the area that it starts from Columbia to Nicaragua anything spawning from there will tend to move westward in to the East Pacific.

[skyline385]

From what i recall, more variability in the ensemble members is desired and was one of the defining features of GEFS V13 (feel free to correct me on the version number if i misremember). So It's splitting out members with such a large variation because it is designed to do that. And to add to this, GEPS is doing the same as well, it had a whole group of members aiming for SFL in the last run.

Anyways here is the full plot, it is definitely one of the more crazy plots i have seen.

[wxman57]

GFS really blew it with the hurricane that was supposed to be striking the northern Gulf coast in May. I don't trust it now. Euro has nothing in the next 10 days, which seems more likely.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1533784116704985088

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1533784116704985088

Oh great, this again: figuring out whether the Euro is overestimating the ridge or the GFS is under-estimating it. Very similar to the late May storm situation that the Euro was right about. Maybe it’ll be right about this one too.

[aspen]

Both the 12z GFS and CMC have development on both sides of Central America, and the 12z GEFS is as crazy as the 06z. It starts to light up in the SW Caribbean on next Sunday/Monday, suggesting that perhaps development could be sparked by one of the newly emerged tropical waves interacting with a CAG, if that’s even possible.

[skyline385]

Both the 12z GFS and CMC have development on both sides of Central America, and the 12z GEFS is as crazy as the 06z. It starts to light up in the SW Caribbean on next Sunday/Monday, suggesting that perhaps development could be sparked by one of the newly emerged tropical waves interacting with a CAG, if that’s even possible.

Think a weak BOC system is the most likely outcome right now