2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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skyline385
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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#441 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 24, 2022 2:34 pm

Image

12Z EURO much more believable for June

Image

That's a lot of members in the Gulf
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#442 Postby SFLcane » Tue May 24, 2022 2:49 pm

Lots of broad/sloppy lows. Classic June Gulf system
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#443 Postby Cpv17 » Tue May 24, 2022 3:54 pm

SFLcane wrote:Lots of broad/sloppy lows. Classic June Gulf system


Wouldn’t this be the third year in a row we’ve had an EPAC crossover into the BOC around this same time of year?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#444 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 24, 2022 3:58 pm

12Z ensembles, couple of strong members on the Euro.

Image
Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#445 Postby Cpv17 » Tue May 24, 2022 4:08 pm



57 is pretty confident this will just get buried into Mexico :wink:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#446 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 24, 2022 4:15 pm

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#447 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 24, 2022 4:29 pm

Cpv17 wrote:


57 is pretty confident this will just get buried into Mexico :wink:

Cpv17 wrote:


57 is pretty confident this will just get buried into Mexico :wink:


Well it does suit climo pretty well

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#448 Postby Teban54 » Tue May 24, 2022 4:56 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Lots of broad/sloppy lows. Classic June Gulf system


Wouldn’t this be the third year in a row we’ve had an EPAC crossover into the BOC around this same time of year?

Claudette and Dolores last year just developed from two halves of the same gyre separately. They're not crossovers (i.e. Claudette did not develop from the remnants of Dolores).
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#449 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue May 24, 2022 5:06 pm

SFLcane wrote:Lots of broad/sloppy lows. Classic June Gulf system


Strongly agreed. This is a classic scenario for June, especially with EPAC energy involved.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#450 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue May 24, 2022 5:18 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:


57 is pretty confident this will just get buried into Mexico :wink:

Cpv17 wrote:


57 is pretty confident this will just get buried into Mexico :wink:


Well it does suit climo pretty well

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220524/17a6b914516a0a13784eb06754772308.jpg


Audrey 1957 really stands out 8-)
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#451 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue May 24, 2022 5:20 pm

Something looks like it could develop in the Bay of Campeche on either May 31 or June 1.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#452 Postby aspen » Tue May 24, 2022 5:48 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:Something looks like it could develop in the Bay of Campeche on either May 31 or June 1.

Or we could see something off of the SEUS coast just a few days later. The GFS has been showing that for the last few runs. Odds are we’ll get something in the first week of June from that very strong enhanced Kelvin Wave.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#453 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 24, 2022 5:50 pm

18Z GFS at it again :lol:

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#454 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 24, 2022 8:33 pm

GFS does not look like it has a clue beyond the next 5-7 days, but I take notice when the Euro indicates a low in the BoC next Tue-Wed. However, both models indicate a quite hostile environment north of the BoC. The low on the Euro looks subtropical after day 7. For now, I'd say maybe a 20% chance of Alex in the BoC next Wed-Thu. Nothing to indicate anything strong. Possibly a weak, sheared TS. If it tracks north, the environment is very hostile. I'll be in San Antonio for a presentation next Tuesday and we have 4 drills to present on Wednesday. Good timing... NOT!
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#455 Postby Cpv17 » Tue May 24, 2022 10:40 pm

wxman57 wrote:GFS does not look like it has a clue beyond the next 5-7 days, but I take notice when the Euro indicates a low in the BoC next Tue-Wed. However, both models indicate a quite hostile environment north of the BoC. The low on the Euro looks subtropical after day 7. For now, I'd say maybe a 20% chance of Alex in the BoC next Wed-Thu. Nothing to indicate anything strong. Possibly a weak, sheared TS. If it tracks north, the environment is very hostile. I'll be in San Antonio for a presentation next Tuesday and we have 4 drills to present on Wednesday. Good timing... NOT!


I don’t think many people would complain about south Texas getting a sloppy ts to give us some drought/heat relief.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#456 Postby Hurricane2021 » Tue May 24, 2022 11:13 pm

GFS is forecasting a Sub-940 mbar hurricane in 120 hours and a brutal weakening before landfall in Mexico :double: :lol:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#457 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 24, 2022 11:52 pm

Hurricane2021 wrote:GFS is forecasting a Sub-940 mbar hurricane in 120 hours and a brutal weakening before landfall in Mexico :double: :lol:


Also keeps pushing the remnants into the Caribbean
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#458 Postby kevin » Wed May 25, 2022 5:11 am

GFS is very aggressive with the storm in the EPAC. Both the euro and GFS consistently form it and NHC also puts 5 day formation chance at 80%, but the euro is a lot weaker (980ish mbar) than GFS. Here's 06z GFS +114 hrs.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#459 Postby N2FSU » Wed May 25, 2022 6:20 am

0Z Euro Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#460 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 25, 2022 7:10 am

Cpv17 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:GFS does not look like it has a clue beyond the next 5-7 days, but I take notice when the Euro indicates a low in the BoC next Tue-Wed. However, both models indicate a quite hostile environment north of the BoC. The low on the Euro looks subtropical after day 7. For now, I'd say maybe a 20% chance of Alex in the BoC next Wed-Thu. Nothing to indicate anything strong. Possibly a weak, sheared TS. If it tracks north, the environment is very hostile. I'll be in San Antonio for a presentation next Tuesday and we have 4 drills to present on Wednesday. Good timing... NOT!


I don’t think many people would complain about south Texas getting a sloppy ts to give us some drought/heat relief.


Given the strong west to east flow across the Gulf, it's unlikely we'll get any moisture out of this system.
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