2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[skyline385]

Pretty bullish 12Z EPS with one member going straight through Florida, also lots of members through PR and DR

[toad strangler]

Two strong waves on operational ECMWF.

https://i.imgur.com/c12jm7g.gif

What is interesting is that instead of the wave getting weaker in the Caribbean, it is getting stronger.

It's just barely crossed into the Caribbean at end of run but something to watch.

[MHC Tracking]

[Category5Kaiju]

Jeez, no wonder why the Euro is optimistic about that particular MDR system...

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.imgur.com/mCesakn.png

Jeez, no wonder why the Euro is optimistic about that particular MDR system...

I hope if something forms, it stays weak and comes to Texas. My area is about 33% of it's normal annual rainfall this year.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Pretty bullish 12Z EPS with one member going straight through Florida, also lots of members through PR and DR

https://i.imgur.com/dVRAbzA.png

EPS says a CCKW will be propagating across the MDR late this month, so that's probably what the operational is hinting at with those strong waves. Could help give them a little boost.

[cycloneye]

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://i.imgur.com/icIFc6d.gif

When theGFS or GEFS shows future possible MDR activity, meh. When the Euro does,

[Category5Kaiju]

This potential future MDR system reminds me a bit of Elsa due to its decently low latitude. Only this time, I feel that with the relaxed trades, it may not be an exact Elsa-2.0 repeat, especially considering Elsa was blasted with speed shear due to the fast trades last year.

[NotSparta]

https://i.imgur.com/icIFc6d.gif

When theGFS or GEFS shows future possible MDR activity, meh. When the Euro does,

Should be inversed. As last year showed us a lot of the time the EPS is stronger with MDR waves at long ranges

[aspen]

How do the forecast trades around the time that strong wave tries to develop/reaches the Lesser Antilles compare to the trades when Emily ‘05 formed and reached the Caribbean?

Right now I’m expecting something similar to either Bret ‘17 (typical weak early season storm) or Beryl ‘18/Elsa ‘21 (low-end hurricane with a small core that gets ripped apart) at the most, if this even forms.

[NotSparta]

How do the forecast trades around the time that strong wave tries to develop/reaches the Lesser Antilles compare to the trades when Emily ‘05 formed and reached the Caribbean?

Right now I’m expecting something similar to either Bret ‘17 (typical weak early season storm) or Beryl ‘18/Elsa ‘21 (low-end hurricane with a small core that gets ripped apart) at the most, if this even forms.

On the 12z Euro I guesstimated the speed of the vortmax, seemed somewhere around 15kt. Think it was a little slower for Emily.

Agreed probably won't become that strong if anything, it's late June/early July in a climatologically unfavored place. Usually don't get much in a place like that

[Deshaunrob17]

How do the forecast trades around the time that strong wave tries to develop/reaches the Lesser Antilles compare to the trades when Emily ‘05 formed and reached the Caribbean?

Right now I’m expecting something similar to either Bret ‘17 (typical weak early season storm) or Beryl ‘18/Elsa ‘21 (low-end hurricane with a small core that gets ripped apart) at the most, if this even forms.

This a really good point. I would love see Emily / Dennis case study .. I know SST was hella warm but what about the rest

[Category5Kaiju]

How do the forecast trades around the time that strong wave tries to develop/reaches the Lesser Antilles compare to the trades when Emily ‘05 formed and reached the Caribbean?

Right now I’m expecting something similar to either Bret ‘17 (typical weak early season storm) or Beryl ‘18/Elsa ‘21 (low-end hurricane with a small core that gets ripped apart) at the most, if this even forms.

This a really good point. I would love see Emily / Dennis case study .. I know SST was hella warm but what about the rest

The Caribbean iirc also had abnormally low shear during that timeframe. Getting a July Cat 3 is rare, but getting a July Cat 4 and 5 is exceptionally rare. I'm sure there is a good reason to this aside from favorable ssts, reduced trades, etc. However, I can't definitively say that just because it happened then and is rare means it cannot happen again, whether it's this season or in a future year. But yeah, I was a 4-year-old babbling toddler when Dennis and Emily happened, so I personally do not know the intricacies behind how exactly they happened, at least from a wx tracker's perspective. Would love to research it more though if possible.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Are these model runs tracking the wave that just came off? That wave looks really robust. It also has a very sharp axis

[cycloneye]

Are these model runs tracking the wave that just came off? That wave looks really robust. It also has a very sharp axis

There it is.

[Category5Kaiju]

Are these model runs tracking the wave that just came off? That wave looks really robust. It also has a very sharp axis

There it is.

https://i.imgur.com/UZsH3vx.gif

The left wave interests me, just checked and it seems to be under relatively light shear. Are we sure this can’t at least become some weak and brief system? Or is the dust the limiting factor?

[NotSparta]

Are these model runs tracking the wave that just came off? That wave looks really robust. It also has a very sharp axis

There it is.

https://i.imgur.com/UZsH3vx.gif

The left wave interests me, just checked and it seems to be under relatively light shear. Are we sure this can’t at least become some weak and brief system? Or is the dust the limiting factor?

Looks like it has a date with South America. The right wave is probably more interesting. It should move north and not develop, but the Euro shows a lobe of vorticity breaking off and trying to form in about 10 days. Will it happen? We'll see. GFS doesn't buy it

[skyline385]

There it is.

https://i.imgur.com/UZsH3vx.gif

The left wave interests me, just checked and it seems to be under relatively light shear. Are we sure this can’t at least become some weak and brief system? Or is the dust the limiting factor?

Looks like it has a date with South America. The right wave is probably more interesting. It should move north and not develop, but the Euro shows a lobe of vorticity breaking off and trying to form in about 10 days. Will it happen? We'll see. GFS doesn't buy it

Kinda hilarious how the tables have now turned lol

[NotSparta]

The left wave interests me, just checked and it seems to be under relatively light shear. Are we sure this can’t at least become some weak and brief system? Or is the dust the limiting factor?

Looks like it has a date with South America. The right wave is probably more interesting. It should move north and not develop, but the Euro shows a lobe of vorticity breaking off and trying to form in about 10 days. Will it happen? We'll see. GFS doesn't buy it

Kinda hilarious how the tables have now turned lol

Indeed. Out here with the AEWs coming off Africa the Euro is the development-happy model