2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2201 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Sep 06, 2022 1:20 pm

skyline385 wrote:ICON keeps showing a wave train but it has been incredibly trigger happy this year, this is what ICON had of Earl a few days (it’s currently at 995mb). Going to take that model with a grain of salt.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220906/b03411ed2095857f93e2766361acffb5.jpg


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It got Danielle and Kay pretty on point though. Not too shabby.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2202 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 06, 2022 1:26 pm

skyline385 wrote:ICON keeps showing a wave train but it has been incredibly trigger happy this year, this is what ICON had of Earl a few days (it’s currently at 995mb). Going to take that model with a grain of salt.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220906/b03411ed2095857f93e2766361acffb5.jpg


You have to pick and choose how you use it as well as every other model. No one in their right mind is going to use ICON for an 8 day out intensity prediction - or any of the globals (except for generalizations). OTOH, it has the position of Earl pretty damn good from over 8 days out.

ICON has proven to me that it's best used for predicting genesis of weaker and smaller systems. Once you learn or accept certain biases inherent in each model, you can avoid throwing out the proverbial baby with the bathwater and adjust accordingly.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2203 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 06, 2022 1:29 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
skyline385 wrote:ICON keeps showing a wave train but it has been incredibly trigger happy this year, this is what ICON had of Earl a few days (it’s currently at 995mb). Going to take that model with a grain of salt.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220906/b03411ed2095857f93e2766361acffb5.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It got Danielle and Kay pretty on point though. Not too shabby.


With the amount of systems its been spawning recently, it was bound to get a few right lol

On a serious note, I came across a discussion recently on wxtwitter about how some global models have a shortcoming in shear modeling causing a core to become shear resistant. I wonder if thats the cause here with some of these models this year. Andy mentioned that HAFS is one of the few models which doesnt have this issue.
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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2204 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 06, 2022 1:38 pm

Steve wrote:
skyline385 wrote:ICON keeps showing a wave train but it has been incredibly trigger happy this year, this is what ICON had of Earl a few days (it’s currently at 995mb). Going to take that model with a grain of salt.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220906/b03411ed2095857f93e2766361acffb5.jpg


You have to pick and choose how you use it as well as every other model. No one in their right mind is going to use ICON for an 8 day out intensity prediction - or any of the globals (except for generalizations). OTOH, it has the position of Earl pretty damn good from over 8 days out.

ICON has proven to me that it's best used for predicting genesis of weaker and smaller systems. Once you learn or accept certain biases inherent in each model, you can avoid throwing out the proverbial baby with the bathwater and adjust accordingly.


Thats pretty much why the GFS v16 has such high cyclone spawn rates, it was made that way to detect TCG earlier than previous versions even though it has gone a bit overboard this year. Obviously the GFS is now taken with caution knowing its high TCG bias when out in the future and ICON is now in that category as well. IIRC ICON used to be very conservative and this seems to be a recent change.

Also regarding the position of Earl, a 960mb Cat 3 system and a 995mb TS aren't going to be under the influence of the same steering current and Coriolis effect so more than likely the ICON got the position right simply by chance. It also had a ton of runs where it parked Earl near the Bahamas including one with a WSW dip. So this run is just one out of many possible locations it showed which is expected 8 days out.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2205 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:22 pm

Image
12z ECMWF... Lots of OTS action, but our yellow lemon TW may need to be watched down the road...
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2206 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:27 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Steve wrote:
skyline385 wrote:ICON keeps showing a wave train but it has been incredibly trigger happy this year, this is what ICON had of Earl a few days (it’s currently at 995mb). Going to take that model with a grain of salt.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220906/b03411ed2095857f93e2766361acffb5.jpg


You have to pick and choose how you use it as well as every other model. No one in their right mind is going to use ICON for an 8 day out intensity prediction - or any of the globals (except for generalizations). OTOH, it has the position of Earl pretty damn good from over 8 days out.

ICON has proven to me that it's best used for predicting genesis of weaker and smaller systems. Once you learn or accept certain biases inherent in each model, you can avoid throwing out the proverbial baby with the bathwater and adjust accordingly.


Thats pretty much why the GFS v16 has such high cyclone spawn rates, it was made that way to detect TCG earlier than previous versions even though it has gone a bit overboard this year. Obviously the GFS is now taken with caution knowing its high TCG bias when out in the future and ICON is now in that category as well. IIRC ICON used to be very conservative and this seems to be a recent change.

Also regarding the position of Earl, a 960mb Cat 3 system and a 995mb TS aren't going to be under the influence of the same steering current and Coriolis effect so more than likely the ICON got the position right simply by chance. It also had a ton of runs where it parked Earl near the Bahamas including one with a WSW dip. So this run is just one out of many possible locations it showed which is expected 8 days out.


Yeah, I've been running it and the others every day a few times while we were waiting. Like all of them, there's been a plethora of solutions and evolutions. Earl could be accidental luck. But it gets some stuff recognized out front which is why I mentioned it had the 1004mb low hitting NWFL this Friday.

^^ FWIW, the new ECMWF also has a low in the North Gulf but closer to the mouth of the Mississippi River in the same timeframe. So ICON definitely first on that, EC next in case anything shows up or spins up there in a couple days.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2207 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Sep 06, 2022 3:19 pm

12z EPS Control: :eek:

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2208 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 06, 2022 3:35 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/hBopTJX.gif
12z ECMWF... Lots of OTS action, but our yellow lemon TW may need to be watched down the road...

This is also the strongest the 50/60 AOI has been on the Euro so far. Strange to see the normally conservative Euro having one of, if not the, strongest solutions and support for an AOI. The GFS is acting more like the 2020 Euro this year.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2209 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 06, 2022 6:10 pm

The 18z GFS and ICON show the possibility of the giant low currently over CT/NY/NJ interacting with Earl as it recurves, stalling off the northeast coast, and maybe developing into a TC.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2210 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 06, 2022 6:51 pm

aspen wrote:The 18z GFS and ICON show the possibility of the giant low currently over CT/NY/NJ interacting with Earl as it recurves, stalling off the northeast coast, and maybe developing into a TC.


I don't know if Earl ends up in that scenario, but you have to think that with the anomalously warm water, a big low will catch a system near the NE US Coast or Eastern Canada before the season is up.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2211 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 07, 2022 9:05 am

The meso models are coming around to the ICON's idea of a spin up in the Gulf of Mexico in the next two days. There's a pretty deep trough with a SW Flow near the coast. But south of that is where we'll have to look to see if a reverse spin gets going. Should bring rain to NW/NC FL Panhandle and possibly west coast peninsular Florida. There's nothing there at the moment (see satellite link below), but if the models are right, there will be Friday or Saturday. I doubt it would even have time to get to TD status, but we may get a broad or elongated surface low to form.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2212 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 07, 2022 11:40 am

Almost a storm free peak season.

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2213 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 07, 2022 11:54 am

SFLcane wrote:Almost a storm free peak season.

https://i.postimg.cc/mgPrMS2v/gfs33.gif

2022 GFS is the new 2020 Euro.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2214 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 07, 2022 12:20 pm

If you had to ask for my honest opinion, I personally do not believe that the newest GFS’s idea of a storm free mid September is going to pan out. :lol: Part of why I think that is because it literally showed a long track major hurricane several runs ago. For it to just drop it like that, doesn’t that seem weird?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2215 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 07, 2022 12:29 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:If you had to ask for my honest opinion, I personally do not believe that the newest GFS’s idea of a storm free mid September is going to pan out. :lol: Part of why I think that is because it literally showed a long track major hurricane several runs ago. For it to just drop it like that, doesn’t that seem weird?


That's not weird at all for the GFS.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2216 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 07, 2022 12:35 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:If you had to ask for my honest opinion, I personally do not believe that the newest GFS’s idea of a storm free mid September is going to pan out. :lol: Part of why I think that is because it literally showed a long track major hurricane several runs ago. For it to just drop it like that, doesn’t that seem weird?

Nope. There have been instances where it's tracked an MDR wave for days only for it to drop completely then return the next run.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2217 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Sep 07, 2022 1:17 pm

12Z euro (so far) has something odd in Earl's wake in around 72 hours. Matching the GFS and icon there with the giant low also, but the Euro lays an egg and actually threatens Bermuda with it...
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2218 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 07, 2022 1:46 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:If you had to ask for my honest opinion, I personally do not believe that the newest GFS’s idea of a storm free mid September is going to pan out. :lol: Part of why I think that is because it literally showed a long track major hurricane several runs ago. For it to just drop it like that, doesn’t that seem weird?


That's not weird at all for the GFS.


Its always the next wave for the ecmwf. Maybe by halloween it will get it right. So over this season honestly
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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2219 Postby skyline385 » Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:35 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:If you had to ask for my honest opinion, I personally do not believe that the newest GFS’s idea of a storm free mid September is going to pan out. :lol: Part of why I think that is because it literally showed a long track major hurricane several runs ago. For it to just drop it like that, doesn’t that seem weird?

Nope not weird at all when looking at long range forecasts.


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2220 Postby ChrisH-UK » Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:49 pm

The GFS 12z has something interesting, Earl interacts with a lower just off the coast New Jersey causing another storm to from behind Earl, it heads to Portugal then swings south to Gibraltar Straits. Could we get a storm passing in to the Med, I know probably not but it's soo close.



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