2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[tolakram]

There seems to be some confusion with what images are ok to post from weathermodels so I wanted to make it clear. I am aware of their terms of use and the ability to post images to social media as long as it's not overdone, however SOME images from their site contain a FOR PERSONAL USE ONLY stamp on the image. Under NO circumstances are those images to be posted here. Right now that's the only restriction and so far I've only seen that stamp on animated GIF's. It's a pretty easy to follow, if you see PERSONAL USE ONLY on the image then don't post it.

We are not here to police every post and spend all our personal time making sure people aren't abusing licenses. If there's ever a question from weathermodels about posting images we will shut all of them down, similar to what we had to do with other commercial sites.

Thanks.

[skyline385]

18Z GFS not looking impressive so far, same lack of activity in the MDR like 12Z at 120 hours. The Gulf system is going off though and could end up the system to watch out for.

[LarryWx]

18Z GFS not looking impressive so far, same lack of activity in the MDR like 12Z at 120 hours. The Gulf system is going off though and could end up the system to watch out for.

18Z GFS has no TC in entire basin through hour 192.

Purely for entertainment: 12Z CFS has a H that goes from NC OB 9/3 to SE MA 9/4.

[Teban54]

18Z GFS not looking impressive so far, same lack of activity in the MDR like 12Z at 120 hours. The Gulf system is going off though and could end up the system to watch out for.

18Z GFS has no TC in entire basin through hour 192.

Purely for entertainment: 12Z CFS has a H that goes from NC OB 9/3 to SE MA 9/4.

As if the GFS heard you, at hour 204 there are three lows in the MDR, and the first wave is now a 1003 mb TS

[skyline385]

18Z getting interesting now, this run is much more believable seeing the dry air in the MDR and how a western path is typically favored in August.

[Hammy]

18Z getting interesting now, this run is much more believable seeing the dry air in the MDR and how a western path is typically favored in August.

https://i.imgur.com/B0JfzHw.png

Worth noting that, if this plays out, appears to be similar genesis to Dorian, which developed at the western tip of an unusually strong monsoon trough.

[ElectricStorm]

18Z getting interesting now, this run is much more believable seeing the dry air in the MDR and how a western path is typically favored in August.

https://i.imgur.com/B0JfzHw.png

That MDR wave is further south than previous runs, not an ideal look for the islands should this verify

[LarryWx]

18Z GFS not looking impressive so far, same lack of activity in the MDR like 12Z at 120 hours. The Gulf system is going off though and could end up the system to watch out for.

18Z GFS has no TC in entire basin through hour 192.

Purely for entertainment: 12Z CFS has a H that goes from NC OB 9/3 to SE MA 9/4.

As if the GFS heard you, at hour 204 there are three lows in the MDR, and the first wave is now a 1003 mb TS

Yeah, lol the lead AEW suddenly strengthens to a tiny TC on the next maps just after 192. However, the trend of the 18Z GFS vs recent GFS runs is still kind of bearish imho for early genesis.

[Spacecoast]

Yeah, lol the lead AEW suddenly strengthens to a tiny TC on the next maps just after 192. However, the trend of the 18Z GFS vs recent GFS runs is still kind of bearish imho for early genesis.

It's happy hour. The GFS could still blow this up to CAT4....

Definitely further south than previous OP runs, and most 12z GEFS members.
And WAY stronger than ECMF Operational.

[SFLcane]

We might indeed got through august with a hurricane. Ridiculous

[Teban54]

We might indeed got through august with a hurricane. Ridiculous

Too early to make statements like this.

[SFLcane]

We might indeed got through august with a hurricane. Ridiculous

Too early to make statements like this.

Your right, but we are sure heading in that direction.

[skyline385]

18Z getting interesting now, this run is much more believable seeing the dry air in the MDR and how a western path is typically favored in August.

https://i.imgur.com/B0JfzHw.png

Worth noting that, if this plays out, appears to be similar genesis to Dorian, which developed at the western tip of an unusually strong monsoon trough.

It also took the same path as was expected from Dorian before its center relocation, you can also see the wave jumping between centers in the current run too

[SoupBone]

We might indeed got through august with a hurricane. Ridiculous

Too early to make statements like this.

Your right, but we are sure heading in that direction.

I would have said last night that this GoM system has a small window to get named, but now I'm not so sure.

[LarryWx]

Through hour 168, the Happy Hour GEFS is coming in noticeably weaker than recent runs for the AEW now coming off Africa. Strongest of that batch was down at 168 to only 1007 mb.

[Hammy]

We might indeed got through august with a hurricane. Ridiculous

Too early to make statements like this.

Honestly I'm thinking the same and I've been zeroing in on September 1 as the big switch flip. Happened in 1988 and 2001 and both seasons ended up active.

[aspen]

The first wave ends up as a super tiny storm that runs over the Shredder before ending up in the Bahamas on September 1st. Reminds me of the early model forecasts of a certain D storm from a few years ago…

[ElectricStorm]

The way I see it is models have been somewhat consistent in showing disturbances that have potential to develop in dangerous areas, specifically the MDR wave and the second gulf system. Model runs are going to fluctuate all the time at this range for any system so to me it's just important that the disturbances actually form and then see what the actual environment looks like.

[Category5Kaiju]

Here's a post that I specifically remember from many months ago while reading the 2017 global model runs (it's on page 67 and from chaser1); seems pretty applicable with what looks to be the in-depth discussions on each individual operational model run that comes out :

"Something to keep in mind is that quite possibly Atlantic conditions are at some point where they're slowly becoming ever so slowly more favorable, but the borderline day to day dynamics continue to dip in and out of all the necessary perimeters to more easily foster development. Anyway, perhaps this is why the models were largely showing little to nothing just days ago but are now showing systems trying to develop, then soon dropping them altogether. I suppose if this were true, than we'll begin to see a progression of more consistent run after run forecasts depicting these systems in the 1-2 weeks to come. That's not at all to say I believe tropical systems will all struggle to form until then, just that the various global models might begin to do a better job forecasting development when conditions further improve."


Just because one GFS, Euro, etc. run depicts nothing or just because one run depicts a slew of powerful major hurricanes does not mean that that will actually be the case. Trends are important, as well as whether or not models consistently pick up on something or not. The way I see things, climatology should be a green light factor in having the basin come to life by this month's end, so it would genuinely surprise me to see no NSs form during the next 14 days or so. Anyhow, as a side note, I checked the most recent GFS run, and something I've noticed is it seems to pump out this extremely powerful typhoon that then hits Tokyo (also seems like 2 runs ago, that typhoon never existed, and that was a very active Atlantic run). I'm wondering if that somewhat-likely-to-be-bogus typhoon is causing some downstream unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic, at least in the more recent runs?

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a bogus GFS run at 18z GFS.