2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Texoz]

What's going on in GOM just east of Brownsville today (July 14th)? I see slight rotation on radar.

[Jr0d]

This thread is extremely quiet as the models show nothing out to day 16
Although the models are not very good on genesis beyond 5 or 6 days, I dont
expect much until maybe the last week of July.

I dont expect much until mid August...kind of like a 'normal' season.

[ChrisH-UK]

What's going on in GOM just east of Brownsville today (July 14th)? I see slight rotation on radar.

It seem there was a brief rotation occurring , NAM and HRR both showed it in their runs with 30-35 knot winds.

Added -
I have found a ship was in the area and had a wind shift and 31 knots winds.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... Crazy, develops every low into a hurricane, one after another...

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/SrKbXD7.gif
06z GFS... Crazy, develops every low into a hurricane, one after another...

I don't think anyone anticipated how busy the East Pacific would be this year. It doesn't mean the Atlantic can't have a busy year of course.-ENSO, coolish PDO, etc no reason for the EPAC to be this active

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/SrKbXD7.gif
06z GFS... Crazy, develops every low into a hurricane, one after another...

I don't think anyone anticipated how busy the East Pacific would be this year. It doesn't mean the Atlantic can't have a busy year of course.-ENSO, coolish PDO, etc no reason for the EPAC to be this active

Agreed; I genuinely think that this may just be a very front-loaded thing that we're seeing here; for it to continue like this even into ASO (and with stronger trades expected to return and maintain our La Nina baseline), continuous activity like this simply defies the fundamental reason why La Ninas are unfavorable for EPAC activity

[NotSparta]

https://i.imgur.com/SrKbXD7.gif
06z GFS... Crazy, develops every low into a hurricane, one after another...

Reminds me of the GFS antics last year

[SteveM]

While we are in an -ENSO and and a -PDO, that part of the epac has some large areas of anomalous warmth, which could be contributing to the activity we are seeing.

[Category5Kaiju]

0Z GFS looks pretty interesting

[skyline385]

0Z GFS looks pretty interesting

What I found interesting was that the ridging is still very strong, the small system is barely able to dodge SA.

[skyline385]

EPS is clean except for that one rogue member

[cycloneye]

Nothing at 06z GFS.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like the 6z GFS is much more realistic and drops the trio of intense hurricanes after Estelle lol. Nothing considerable in the WPAC or Atlantic though either it seems

[psyclone]

Crickets on the models is so typical for the July dead zone. Hopefully we get another 2-4 weeks of tranquility. August is approaching and we know legit quality storms will be on the docket

[Hurricaneman]

Crickets on the models is so typical for the July dead zone. Hopefully we get another 2-4 weeks of tranquility. August is approaching and we know legit quality storms will be on the docket

Though it does have a large wave come off at the end of the month, makes me think between August 1 and August 10 thing might start going into prime time but until then enjoy the quiet

[skyline385]

Some activity at long range popping up on ensembles

[jasons2k]

This is when we used to get “season cancelled “ posts in the old days but now we know better. It will be off to the races soon.

[wxman57]

Yep, season is definitely cancelled in both the Atlantic and West Pacific. I doubt we'll see another named storm in either. My plans, now, are to take most of September off and go on a long vacation. Will be great to go through the peak of hurricane and typhoon season so quietly.

[Wampadawg]

Yep, season is definitely cancelled in both the Atlantic and West Pacific. I doubt we'll see another named storm in either. My plans, now, are to take most of September off and go on a long vacation. Will be great to go through the peak of hurricane and typhoon season so quietly.

Yup when does the first 2023 forecast come out lol maybe no

[ScottNAtlanta]

While we are in an -ENSO and and a -PDO, that part of the epac has some large areas of anomalous warmth, which could be contributing to the activity we are seeing.

After a couple of hurricanes go over the same area you're going to get upwelling so I find it hard to believe there will be a train of storms like that