2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Emmett_Brown]

Just an observation about how we use models; remember just a week ago when most models killed off future Earl because of shear and dry air, and yet here we are. Earl is looking rather healthy, despite shear. Models are doing math, with a margin of error that gets exponentially larger with time. The one certainty with models is that they are all wrong, 100% of the time. But sometimes the amount of error is small enough to be useful. The only thing we can glean right now is that there may be storms.

[tolakram]

Let's get back on topic please. Model runs.

[Dean4Storms]

Nothing comes of it but the ECM does show some 850mb vorticity developing today into tomorrow over the central Gulf and a surface Low then moving northward underneath this cutoff ULL.

There’s always a chance something tries to spin up quickly, worth watching IMO.

[aspen]

Once again, the GFS is all alone in showing a dead tropics during peak season. The fact that 95L looks like a TD and the GFS has barely shown it existing would suggest the model’s dead MDR solutions are not very accurate, and with a positive CCKW coming into the basin in a few days, it’s possible the GFS is still having trouble correctly modeling a change in VP anomalies/changes in favorability.

[skyline385]

Once again, the GFS is all alone in showing a dead tropics during peak season. The fact that 95L looks like a TD and the GFS has barely shown it existing would suggest the model’s dead MDR solutions are not very accurate, and with a positive CCKW coming into the basin in a few days, it’s possible the GFS is still having trouble correctly modeling a change in VP anomalies/changes in favorability.

Always check vorticity plots, GFS was initialized correctly with 95L looking like a TD but it simply kills it off from unfavorable conditions. CIMSS also shows 95L battling 30-40 kts of shear with dry air to the west.

Lots of models were trigger happy about Earl too but it ended up developing only after 91L cleared the MDR, the conditions in the tropics just aren't that good right now. Remember, so far we have had a mid-latitude storm and a storm which managed to develop while recurving near the sub-tropics, there hasn't been any proof yet of conditions changing in the MDR.

[NDG]

Yet another strong TUTT coming down north of the Caribbean for next week, don't look for any tropical activity in the central and eastern Caribbean

[tolakram]

I had to remove a bunch of posts whining about Florida not getting hit and the usual I don't like this season crap. If that's all you have to offer don't post, if you do expect a warning or suspension. We can't have every thread filling up with useless off topic posts.

We have a topic right here https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=122927 for posting about the slow start / or if the season is going to under perform. You're welcome to post in there if it's not related to a current model run.

[skyline385]

Peak season btw




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[ElectricStorm]

18z ICON has 2 MDR storms within 5 days, first one being the 0/30 wave with another one behind it near the Cabo Verde islands

[skyline385]

Looks like ICON 0Z backtracking now as well like the Euro with barely any development, the GFS got this bang on with all of the other models correcting themselves.

[blp]

Our lemon area seems to stay alive into the Bahamas per 00z GFS and CMC. Could be a sleeper.

[Emmett_Brown]

6Z GEFS (GFS Ensemble) showing some activity in the Western Caribbean after 220 hours. It might be the GFS' tendency toward overdoing gyres in this area, or it could be an indicator of a more favorable environment coming up in about 10 days. As always, anything after 120 hours is highly error prone, so use with caution.

[SFLcane]

6Z GEFS (GFS Ensemble) showing some activity in the Western Caribbean after 220 hours. It might be the GFS' tendency toward overdoing gyres in this area, or it could be an indicator of a more favorable environment coming up in about 10 days. As always, anything after 120 hours is highly error prone, so use with caution.

Indeed!

[AutoPenalti]

6Z GEFS (GFS Ensemble) showing some activity in the Western Caribbean after 220 hours. It might be the GFS' tendency toward overdoing gyres in this area, or it could be an indicator of a more favorable environment coming up in about 10 days. As always, anything after 120 hours is highly error prone, so use with caution.

Indeed!

https://i.postimg.cc/W1BymsDL/gefs.gif

lol at that one member weaving around the shredder.

[crownweather]

And the GEPS also shows some signs of possible tropical mischief towards the end of the month. EPS, on the other, is quiet.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1568279982136299520

[cheezyWXguy]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1568279982136299520?s=20&t=qo8fcjq2KWrJX3kVeIKT7w

Not a moment too soon, guess what’s now showing up on the 12z gfs…

[SFLcane]

[skyline385]

This face on today's Euro perfectly summaries the global models for the 2022 season

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS showing this in the eastern Gulf in about 12-14 days. Forms from the phantom storm generator off Columbia/South America. A few earlier runs hinted at something there too, but this is the first time it has shown a hurricane.