2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1141 Postby skyline385 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:21 pm

SFLcane wrote:
aspen wrote:

A lot of support, but I’m half expecting this to suddenly vanish like the one from last week lol


Question is, is this the high water mark and the models back off? Or do they keep trending up?

Depends on whether the other models are joining in or not imo. GEFS is moderately enthusiastic nothing wild like the EPS.

Image



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Last edited by skyline385 on Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1142 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:21 pm

5 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19138
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1143 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 05, 2022 5:16 pm

Wait, I thought the Atlantic was dead.
9 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1144 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Aug 05, 2022 5:20 pm

18z GFS looks like it has that wave becoming a TD in about 5 days or so. NHC might put up a lemon pretty soon
4 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4161
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1145 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 05, 2022 5:32 pm

tolakram wrote:Wait, I thought the Atlantic was dead.


It is. Until it isn't. And we are getting close to climo ISN'T time :wink: Models will play catchup like they almost always do.
8 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1146 Postby skyline385 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 5:48 pm

Everyone was meme-ing on the EURO so much but look who just joined it :D

Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1147 Postby Nimbus » Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:07 pm

WXman57 said the 15th might see some activity but I doubt that 1012 ULL will split if there is even one there in 10 days.
0 likes   

hurricane2025
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 162
Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:36 am

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1148 Postby hurricane2025 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:13 pm

So euro has 3 named storms in 10 days and gfs 2, so that would leave us with 15 more days in august, active year is coming
1 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1149 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:58 pm

Increasing model support for a strong wave moving off the west coast of Africa on Sunday developing into Danielle around next Wednesday. Looks like it could pass north of the Caribbean and track out to sea, but much will depend on if/when it develops. Earlier development = out to sea. I'd give it 30-40% chance within 5 days. NHC will start mentioning it in their 5-day tonight, I'd think.
13 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3946
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1150 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:49 pm

Call Leaps on $MDR get’em while it’s cheap!
3 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1151 Postby skyline385 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:32 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1152 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:58 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1153 Postby SoupBone » Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:01 pm



Is that the one Wxman57 was talking about?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1154 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:02 pm

SoupBone wrote:


Is that the one Wxman57 was talking about?


That is it.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1155 Postby skyline385 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:
SoupBone wrote:


Is that the one Wxman57 was talking about?


That is it.


If 0Z follows on it, this could be the third potential MDR bust for the EURO. The MDR is quickly becoming EURO's Caribbean :D

On a serious note, Andy did say that the wave behind is the one to watch. This one could potentially clear the way for the one behind it.

Scratch that, it looks like 18Z actually busted the second wave.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1156 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:36 pm

18z Euro/EPS were a lot weaker. Signal is about to fall off big time
2 likes   

Visioen
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 271
Joined: Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:08 pm
Location: Belgium, Europe

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1157 Postby Visioen » Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:36 pm

tolakram wrote:Wait, I thought the Atlantic was dead.

That gave me a good laugh, thx :lol:
2 likes   

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1158 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Aug 05, 2022 11:10 pm

0z GFS stronger so far, down to 996mb at hour 126
2 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5523
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1159 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:11 am

ElectricStorm wrote:0z GFS stronger so far, down to 996mb at hour 126

Manages to get to Bermuda
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1160 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:16 am

00z Euro.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: duilaslol, KirbyDude25, pepecool20, TheWisestofAll, Wampadawg, zal0phus and 57 guests