2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[PTrackerLA]

The ICON is still a believer in a shortie for Sunday?!

Our local met just showed the GRAF model which is also suggesting something similar to the ICON.

[Wampadawg]

The ICON is still a believer in a shortie for Sunday?!

Our local met just showed the GRAF model which is also suggesting something similar to the ICON.

Let’s see what the ooz model shows ??

[Steve]

The ICON is still a believer in a shortie for Sunday?!

Our local met just showed the GRAF model which is also suggesting something similar to the ICON.

Let’s see what the ooz model shows ??

Yeah it’s kind of wild. Radar derivative, IBM and mesoscale models sometimes catch the random in close stuff that globals miss completely. ICON seems to get that one storm every once in a while that the other globals missed. 00Z has a TD-ish landfall along the central TX coast or a low that maybe gets better organized as it’s running out of time. While that’s certainly plausible, I don’t see a westward move all the way across south TX into west TX and into New Mexico and generally appearing better organized over the desert. So that gives you some pause. Plus it’s usually wrong. But with the MJO changing over, a wave in the area and all, it’s at least a small possibility.

7am CDT Sunday

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1100&fh=84

[InfernoFlameCat]

Gfs shows the ridge weakening over the azores. Perhaps this will allow dust to stop getting shoved into the tropical waves.

[jaguars_22]

The RGEM model is showing a good low pressure system coming into south Texas Sunday??

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
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5h

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5h
Worst of summer ending in Texas as JMA/Australian score the MJO phase 2 coup. Should see response in tropical Atlantic basin though euro has nothing next 15 days.

[Spacecoast]

Gfs shows the ridge weakening over the azores. Perhaps this will allow dust to stop getting shoved into the tropical waves.

Dust 240 hr forecast from NASA.....

[HurricaneBrain]

I expect a yellow circle with a “near 0% chance of tropical formation” off the south TX coast soon. You can see the feature around 60hrs on most models but ICON is the only notable one really developing anything.

[Hammy]

The RGEM model is showing a good low pressure system coming into south Texas Sunday??

I've found over the years that the NAM is probably the best indicator of development in the Gulf and off the East Coast of any of the models, as it tends to spin up pretty much any low pressure into a tropical storm--sometimes it can sniff out things in the shorter term before any of the other models, while at the same time I've never seen a false negative, so if it's failing to develop something the other models show, it probably won't show up.

That said, it's starting to pick up on a small low pressure so there's definitely some hints there.

[Wampadawg]

I expect a yellow circle with a “near 0% chance of tropical formation” off the south TX coast soon. You can see the feature around 60hrs on most models but ICON is the only notable one really developing anything.

ICON I think I can I think I can

[jaguars_22]

I think this will be a brief system I’m hoping to get a lot of rain here in Victoria and helping out the drought with everyone in Texas! I’d say tropical depression before landfall! Not really landfall but when the blob comes on land

[Wampadawg]

GFS now on board to providing hope for a shorty to bring the rain

[Nimbus]

Surface pressures starting to slide south near Eugene island Louisiana this afternoon.
A lot of buoys in the area are missing this year?

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=CDT

[Wampadawg]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 8472676352

[Nimbus]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1557855708472676352

It doesn't matter to me tonight.
But Texas could use some rain as long as we don't get a named storm.

[jaguars_22]

18z euro is stronger with the system into Texas!

[Clearcloudz]

If something does form in the gulf and gets a name then a huge W for the ICON considering it was the first model to show this potential.

[Wampadawg]

If something does form in the gulf and gets a name then a huge W for the ICON considering it was the first model to show this potential.

Yeah it’s been sniffing it for days!

[stormhunter7]

ICON for the win? Expect the 2am NHC TWO to go off with a chance we will see Sub-TS D in next few days. GFS is coming around in 00z. ICON, Euro, GFS. Hasn't been this busy in a while. Texas needs the moisture.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, you would think it was the middle of July or something based on lack of activity. Hard to believe only 2 more weeks left until September. Perhaps my prediction of no Hurricanes until the first week of September will come true afterall..............