2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Teban54
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2321 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:39 pm

The silver lining is that 12z GFS is overall less active than 6z. The Eastern MDR system is notably shorter lived (likely due to track), and the Caribbean system went through the shredder which limited its potential somewhat.

Just somewhat, because GFS still bombed it out to 936 mb lol.

It might still jolly well be a typical GFS Caribbean phantom, but a few 0z Euro ensemble members also develop it in the Caribbean. Of course, at this stage ensembles are a better indicator than deterministic models.

Full 12z GFS run:
Image

Compared to 6z run:
Image
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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2322 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:56 pm

That one member on the 12Z EPS wanting an Ian 2.0

Image
Last edited by skyline385 on Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2323 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:58 pm

12z EPS has a notable uptick on the Caribbean system:
Image

Here's 12z GEFS for reference. To my naked eye, looks about the same.
Image
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Re: RE: Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2324 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 29, 2022 3:38 pm

Teban54 wrote:12z EPS has a notable uptick on the Caribbean system:
Image

Here's 12z GEFS for reference. To my naked eye, looks about the same.
Image
Bastardi had the western carib system in his sights a few days so maybe we he was on to something
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2325 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 3:52 pm

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2326 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:14 pm

Long-range but :eek:

Image

The GFS OP has it too dives it into CA but don’t believe that track for a minute:

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2327 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:39 pm

gatorcane wrote:Long-range but :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/0yR192Ld/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh240-342.gif

The GFS OP has it too dives it into CA but don’t believe that track for a minute:

https://i.postimg.cc/6Q1XJLwT/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh150-282.gif


Another one to watch. I believe this comes from the wave south of former td11
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2328 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:10 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Long-range but :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/0yR192Ld/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh240-342.gif

The GFS OP has it too dives it into CA but don’t believe that track for a minute:

https://i.postimg.cc/6Q1XJLwT/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh150-282.gif


Another one to watch. I believe this comes from the wave south of former td11

Yeah it concerns me that this isn’t the standard cag bias. Still a long way out so could be phantom, but I really don’t like the gefs’ tendency to turn it north into the gulf and then east into the same area hit by Ian
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2329 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:35 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Long-range but :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/0yR192Ld/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh240-342.gif

The GFS OP has it too dives it into CA but don’t believe that track for a minute:

https://i.postimg.cc/6Q1XJLwT/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh150-282.gif


Another one to watch. I believe this comes from the wave south of former td11

Yeah it concerns me that this isn’t the standard cag bias. Still a long way out so could be phantom, but I really don’t like the gefs’ tendency to turn it north into the gulf and then east into the same area hit by Ian


How accurate is this long range model, i am totally unfamiliar with this....thankyou!
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2330 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:07 pm

underthwx wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
Another one to watch. I believe this comes from the wave south of former td11

Yeah it concerns me that this isn’t the standard cag bias. Still a long way out so could be phantom, but I really don’t like the gefs’ tendency to turn it north into the gulf and then east into the same area hit by Ian


How accurate is this long range model, i am totally unfamiliar with this....thankyou!

It’s definitely not reliable that far out, this is fantasy land. The reason it concerns me at all is because we are getting into October, which climatologically favors a track like what we just saw with Ian for systems that make their way into the western Caribbean. There is some additional model support beyond the gefs, so it’s worth watching, but I would by no means take model output at face value this far out. Such a storm forming in such a location could easily bury itself in Central America, shear out, or never form to begin with, depending on how the pattern evolves.

I think this is also a good time to remind ourselves that climatology is a historical average of individual anomalies that gives a decent indicator of what a storm may do, should it form. It does not dictate what a storm will do.

Bottom line: it’s something to watch, but until we’re within 5 days of forecasted genesis, it’s nothing more than that.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2331 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:08 am

The last couple of runs of the op GFS seem to develop north of the greater Antilles with possible convective feedback while the ensembles mostly form in the western Caribbean so I believe the gfs is having convective feedback issues
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2332 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:55 am

Weak signal for anything in the Caribbean other then what could be your typical fantasy storms in the Gefs and gfs. Eastern Atlantic wave could develop but thankfully it’s pretty certain it won’t bother anyone atleast that’s the way it looks right now.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2333 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:34 am

SFLcane wrote:Weak signal for anything in the Caribbean other then what could be your typical fantasy storms in the Gefs and gfs. Eastern Atlantic wave could develop but thankfully it’s pretty certain it won’t bother anyone atleast that’s the way it looks right now.


The Caribbean system after the 10/60 AOI doesn't, at least based on the recent GFS run, seem to be a phantom, as its genesis can be traced to the Eastern Caribbean. Unlike many of the other phantoms we've seen this year, it doesn't just pop out of nowhere in the WCAR from spurious convection originating in Panama/Colombia/Venezuela.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2334 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:03 am

Looks like this morning GFS had a 930mb monster barreling N through the Bahamas as opposed to yesterday burying it S into Costa Rica and Honduras. Pretty wide spread there
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2335 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:29 am

Saved GFS loop. At this range it is not about the specific track but the signal of a potentially big hurricane:

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2336 Postby jconsor » Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:04 am

I know this is not what residents in the Greater Antilles and along the Southeast US coast want to hear after Fiona and Ian respectively dealt them a severe blow, but looks to me that early Oct will be quite active, and not just in the usual W. Caribbean hurricane breeding grounds this time of year.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1575790007583145984


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2337 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:58 pm

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2338 Postby toad strangler » Fri Sep 30, 2022 2:06 pm



ACTIVE ensembles
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2339 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 30, 2022 2:11 pm

Does GEFS suffer from the same convective feedback issues as the operational GFS does?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2340 Postby otowntiger » Fri Sep 30, 2022 2:43 pm

I have a dumb question: what do the numbers mean that are on the end of each ensemble run?
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