2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Yup, GFS has dropped the system finally…also looks like the CAG does not favor EPAC or Atlantic development
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Category5Kaiju wrote:Yup, GFS has dropped the system finally…also looks like the CAG does not favor EPAC or Atlantic development
Given lack of model support from other areas and the timeframe constantly shifting you kinda had a feeling the GFS would give up on its solution eventually. It took a while but it finally did. Looking increasingly likely that either a brief weak EPAC system or nothing at all will come out of this (probably leaning towards the latter tbh).
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:Yup, GFS has dropped the system finally…also looks like the CAG does not favor EPAC or Atlantic development
Given lack of model support from other areas and the timeframe constantly shifting you kinda had a feeling the GFS would give up on its solution eventually. It took a while but it finally did. Looking increasingly likely that either a brief weak EPAC system or nothing at all will come out of this (probably leaning towards the latter tbh).
You spoke a little too early…the 18z GFS keeps the CAG around for a while and eventually gets a system out of it.
I’m thinking my vote for no pre-season system might verify at this rate.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Category5Kaiju wrote:Yup, GFS has dropped the system finally…also looks like the CAG does not favor EPAC or Atlantic development
lol GFS simply does not want to let it go, although development has pushed way beyond into fantasy land.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
aspen wrote:DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:Yup, GFS has dropped the system finally…also looks like the CAG does not favor EPAC or Atlantic development
Given lack of model support from other areas and the timeframe constantly shifting you kinda had a feeling the GFS would give up on its solution eventually. It took a while but it finally did. Looking increasingly likely that either a brief weak EPAC system or nothing at all will come out of this (probably leaning towards the latter tbh).
You spoke a little too early…the 18z GFS keeps the CAG around for a while and eventually gets a system out of it.
I’m thinking my vote for no pre-season system might verify at this rate.
If it does verify, all hell will break loose in the wx community.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
It pushed it back way back fantasy land big fantasy land
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Totally normal for May nothing wrong here
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
GFS still blowing this thing up despite the delayed genesis in the 18z run. At least its hurricane shenanigans can be forgiven this time with that entirely in the 240+ hr range.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
All kidding aside this persistence even if it’s now delayed
time wise is a little concerning.
time wise is a little concerning.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
We literally see this every May with the GFS. Nothing will likely come of it. It'll keep pushing it until early-June before dropping it entirely.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The loop current in particular worries me, its really strong right now on the SST maps and the 18Z GFS pretty much rides over 27-28 C waters on it
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
GFS is like: "I refuse to cave! I am very pissed, so I am going to show you a 130 mph, 949 mbar hurricane in the Gulf on June 1! How you like that??!"
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I completely agree with Mark here. Something will most likely develop over the western Caribbean or BOC but it probably won’t happen till the first or second week of June.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Visible vorticity on the 0Z GFS at 102hrs, looks like it might go back to pre-18Z run again
EDIT: Nope it did not lol
EDIT: Nope it did not lol
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
So it seems like the GFS now really likes the idea that this upcoming CAG is not going to immediately cause TC genesis but rather stall over land and have the northern part of it become dominant near the end of the month (thereby explaining the delay in TC genesis). Interesting to see the extreme persistency in the GFS wanting some WCAR system to form later this month, I am honestly extremely intrigued and amazed at how this model has maintained its dedication regarding this.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Category5Kaiju wrote:So it seems like the GFS now really likes the idea that this upcoming CAG is not going to immediately cause TC genesis but rather stall over land and have the northern part of it become dominant near the end of the month (thereby explaining the delay in TC genesis). Interesting to see the extreme persistency in the GFS wanting some WCAR system to form later this month, I am honestly extremely intrigued and amazed at how this model has maintained its dedication regarding this.
Same, I think everyone realizes that this system is most likely not forming but I find it very fascinating that the GFS does not want to let this one go
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