2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Some good news for folks who don't have any paid subscriptions to wx sites: Tropical Tidbits now has 06z/18z Euro, although it only goes out to hour 72. The data must've been made public.

[Hayabusa]

Some good news for folks who don't have any paid subscriptions to wx sites: Tropical Tidbits now has 06z/18z Euro, although it only goes out to hour 72. The data must've been made public.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/805194424433901578/932362718298669126/unknown.png

06Z and 18Z data has already been public since the public test release on September 2020 and officially since May 2021 when ECMWF updated their model, I'm wondering why it took this long for tidbits to implement it when other free sites like weatheronline.co.uk has already implemented it way before.

[AlphaToOmega]

This keeps showing up in the models. It is tempting to discard these as bogus model runs, but with the consistency that both major global models have been showing this, they could be onto something.

[Category5Kaiju]

This keeps showing up in the models. It is tempting to discard these as bogus model runs, but with the consistency that both major global models have been showing this, they could be onto something.

https://i.postimg.cc/j5TpyQ7j/ecmwf-mslpa-epac-6.png
https://i.postimg.cc/cHcVhgRB/ecmwf-mslpa-epac-7.png
https://i.postimg.cc/FHM5HQF3/gfs-mslpa-epac-20.png
https://i.postimg.cc/Lsjdq0h7/gfs-mslpa-epac-21.png
https://i.postimg.cc/6q5FmWzJ/gfs-mslpa-epac-24.png

Much like that suspect Atlantic system a week ago or so, I'm not sure if this is a TC per se tbh

[AlphaToOmega]

The models keep showing something in the East Pacific, and as of today, it shows up on the NHC's official marine forecast; despite this, it still has no mention in a Tropical Weather Outlook. It has the "look" of a tropical cyclone on each of the three models (ECMWF, GFS, and CMC): symmetrical, deep convection, non-frontal, and closed low.

[aspen]

The GFS has remained very consistent with the development of two potentially strong TCs in the SWIO, and the timeframe has continued to come in, with development starting as early as Friday on the 18z run. Hopefully they remain out to sea and serve as nice eye candy with the new Tropical Tidbits Himawari-8 coverage.

[AlphaToOmega]

We are only ~48 hours from the moment of truth. Now this system has at least some mention from the NHC in its Tropical Weather Discussion (still no special TWO, though). While development chances are low according to the NHC, they at least acknowledge the slim possibility of such an occurrence.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A relaxed N-S pressure gradient from high pressure north of our
waters to the ITCZ is producing gentle to fresh NE to E trades
north of the ITCZ. South of the ITCZ, SE winds are moderate to
fresh. A vigorous upper-level trough along 132W is inducing a
surface trough from 10N130W to 16N130W with moderate convection
occurring from 15-22N between 125W-132W. Seas are 6-8 ft across
the basin in NW swell.

The surface trough should gradually pull northward for the next
two days while interacting with the upper-level trough. A broad
surface low is likely to develop on Thu. The combined impact of
the low forming along with building high pressure to the north
should lead toward a large area of strong to gale NE to E trades
on Thu and Fri. While the system is not likely to be frontal,
the low may not develop enough organized deep convection and/or
a well-defined low in order to be considered a subtropical
cyclone. By Fri night, the low may reach our W border along 140W
and weaken substantially. Seas should peak around 15 ft from Thu
night to Fri from 20N-30N between 130W-140W.

$$
Landsea

[AlphaToOmega]

This keeps showing up in the models. It is tempting to discard these as bogus model runs, but with the consistency that both major global models have been showing this, they could be onto something.

https://i.postimg.cc/j5TpyQ7j/ecmwf-mslpa-epac-6.png
https://i.postimg.cc/cHcVhgRB/ecmwf-mslpa-epac-7.png
https://i.postimg.cc/FHM5HQF3/gfs-mslpa-epac-20.png
https://i.postimg.cc/Lsjdq0h7/gfs-mslpa-epac-21.png
https://i.postimg.cc/6q5FmWzJ/gfs-mslpa-epac-24.png

Much like that suspect Atlantic system a week ago or so, I'm not sure if this is a TC per se tbh

The NHC thinks it could become one.

[cycloneye]

Another one by GFS, this time moving from ITCZ.

[AlphaToOmega]

Another one by GFS, this time moving from ITCZ.

https://i.imgur.com/h0eFo1k.gif

This has been shown for days by both the GFS and the CMC.

[cycloneye]

GFS continues with it.



Also ECMWF but very weak and brief.

[aspen]

Still on the 12z GFS/CMC/ICON.

This is now the third January Western Hemisphere TC on the models so far. Maybe this time it’ll verify? It looks like this is partially spawned by a tropical wave, which is ridiculous for January.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1484583520446169092




 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1484584528178036741

[Category5Kaiju]

Still on the 12z GFS/CMC/ICON.

This is now the third January Western Hemisphere TC on the models so far. Maybe this time it’ll verify? It looks like this is partially spawned by a tropical wave, which is ridiculous for January.

I mean the sst anomalies in the tropical Atlantic currently are ridiculously high, so I wouldn’t be surprised

[AlphaToOmega]

Unlike the system that was first being monitored circa January 7, this one might actually have somewhat of a shot. The one being monitored circa January 7 developed from a cut-off low; the one being monitored right now is developing from the ITCZ, just like Invest 90E.

[Iceresistance]

I don't think that this is related to the models themselves, but Tropical Tidbits got a huge update! Check it out!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

There is the EC-Fast model, & the Euro now runs at 0z & 12z at 3 hour intervals.

[cycloneye]

I don't think that this is related to the models themselves, but Tropical Tidbits got a huge update! Check it out!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

There is the EC-Fast model, & the Euro now runs at 0z & 12z at 3 hour intervals.

Your post is good to be here. Agree, is a great addition.

[cycloneye]

Another new tool for ECMWF at TT is moisture fields.

[aspen]

Another new tool for ECMWF at TT is moisture fields.

https://i.imgur.com/PX5ZiOJ.png

Darn even the Euro keeps the storm too far off the coast. I was hoping for a nice snowed-in weekend; now an inch looks to be pushing it.

The 3-hour Euro is my favorite part of the TT upgrade. Previously, we would have to go to another site hosting the high-res Euro model to see its peak intensity estimate for a storm since it often fell within the 24-hour gaps on TT, but now that won’t be the case.

[Iceresistance]

College of DuPage now has the Euro Model, 0z & 12z up to 240 hours, & 6z & 18z up to 90 hours.

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/