2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Cpv17]

GFS does not look like it has a clue beyond the next 5-7 days, but I take notice when the Euro indicates a low in the BoC next Tue-Wed. However, both models indicate a quite hostile environment north of the BoC. The low on the Euro looks subtropical after day 7. For now, I'd say maybe a 20% chance of Alex in the BoC next Wed-Thu. Nothing to indicate anything strong. Possibly a weak, sheared TS. If it tracks north, the environment is very hostile. I'll be in San Antonio for a presentation next Tuesday and we have 4 drills to present on Wednesday. Good timing... NOT!

I don’t think many people would complain about south Texas getting a sloppy ts to give us some drought/heat relief.

Given the strong west to east flow across the Gulf, it's unlikely we'll get any moisture out of this system.

Yeah I was afraid of that.

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs is bugging Bermuda. Also, there's a really weird looking swirl on Satellite in the Southwest Gulf today.

[AlphaToOmega]

It looks more and more likely that our pre-season streak will be broken. Disappointing start

[zzh]

It looks more and more likely that our pre-season streak will be broken. Disappointing start

No.

[toad strangler]

It looks more and more likely that our pre-season streak will be broken. Disappointing start

lol

I wouldn't expect much before August. ANYTHING that happens before is house money.

[skyline385]

Lots of activity on 12Z EPS

[N2FSU]

0z Euro



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[N2FSU]

FWIW, 0z Canadian



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[aspen]

The GFS has stopped showing an EPac—>GoM crossover, instead trying to develop a weak system around the Bahamas/SEUS coast on the first day or two of June. Another system develops from a CAG afterwards and is dragged out of the Caribbean and into the subtropics.

[BobHarlem]

The GFS has stopped showing an EPac—>GoM crossover, instead trying to develop a weak system around the Bahamas/SEUS coast on the first day or two of June. Another system develops from a CAG afterwards and is dragged out of the Caribbean and into the subtropics.

The Euro still shows the crossover, however.

[SFLcane]

[Blown Away]

https://i.postimg.cc/CKJC5FbC/F6-B9-E1-FF-3373-4284-AD24-3262700-A944-E.gif

Smells like a classic June TS into the Big Bend area of Florida...

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/CKJC5FbC/F6-B9-E1-FF-3373-4284-AD24-3262700-A944-E.gif

Smells like a classic June TS into the Big Bend area of Florida...

Could be much further south even into the Caribbean missing Florida all together. These cross overs are always very tricky.

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/CKJC5FbC/F6-B9-E1-FF-3373-4284-AD24-3262700-A944-E.gif

Smells like a classic June TS into the Big Bend area of Florida...

ya that would be very climoish if verified. These can fling through legit severe lines through most of the peninsula being they are heavily saturated E of the center. Last one I remember was TS Andrea in 2013 that sent a couple spooky THICK lines through much of the central and southern peninsula. She made a June 6th landfall nearly dead center Big Bend. That GFS run would place it there at the same time haha

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Andrea_(2013)#/media/File:Andrealoop.gif

[skyline385]

https://i.postimg.cc/CKJC5FbC/F6-B9-E1-FF-3373-4284-AD24-3262700-A944-E.gif

Smells like a classic June TS into the Big Bend area of Florida...

ya that would be very climoish if verified. These can fling through legit severe lines through most of the peninsula being they are heavily saturated E of the center. Last one I remember was TS Andrea in 2013 that sent a couple spooky THICK lines through much of the central and southern peninsula. She made a June 6th landfall nearly dead center Big Bend. That GFS run would place it there at the same time haha

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Andrea_(2013)#/media/File:Andrealoop.gif

So if it verifies then 2013 would be a good analog

[SFLcane]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely looking like something is going to pop up in the BoC in the coming week from the energy associated with would-be Agatha. Good model support.

[skyline385]

Definitely looking like something is going to pop up in the BoC in the coming week from the energy associated with would-be Agatha. Good model support.

I am not sure about that honestly, EPS members are all over the place shifting every run and even decreased in the last run. Meanwhile, the GFS as usual forms a system off a CAG and doesn't have many members in the BoC at all.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely looking like something is going to pop up in the BoC in the coming week from the energy associated with would-be Agatha. Good model support.

I am not sure about that honestly, EPS members are all over the place shifting every run and even decreased in the last run. Meanwhile, the GFS as usual forms a system off a CAG and doesn't have many members in the BoC at all.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220526/3cdf42269a335b7e338b8dc8fd02ceef.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220526/550109fb94350ad5a19ba132f9bee94c.jpg

EPS being wishy-washy isn't anything new, in all honesty. These crossover scenarios are always complex to forecast.

[aspen]

12z CMC has two tropical cyclones on June 1st: Alex from the remnants of Agatha in the BoC, and Bonnie north of the Bahamas/east of Florida.