2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[NotSparta]

00z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/EBYH31I.png

GFS bringing back the good old weenie runs... switch is just about to flip

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS basically Harveys SLA. Massive flooding if that solution materializes.

[AxaltaRacing24]

00z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/EBYH31I.png

GFS bringing back the good old weenie runs... switch is just about to flip

and there was lots of 2013 talk as recently as 48 hours ago

[al78]

00z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/EBYH31I.png

GFS bringing back the good old weenie runs... switch is just about to flip

and there was lots of 2013 talk as recently as 48 hours ago

The 1998 hurricane season had only one tropical storm up until this date then it turned into one of the most disasterous hyperactive seasons on record at the time. It is never over until it's over.

[skyline385]

lol at the size of the chonker the GFS manages to form with two other hurricanes besides it.




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[skyline385]

:uarrow:

00z GFS basically Harveys SLA. Massive flooding if that solution materializes.

Interestingly enough, Texas is getting its own Harvey from what looks like the BoC system.





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[jlauderdal]

00z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/EBYH31I.png

GFS won't be denied an active season, whether it's close to reality remains to be seen, but we can always count on the GFS to provide plenty of ammo for this board. Happy Hurricane Hunting

[kevin]

06z GFS operational with 3 TCs before September starts and this isn't even counting the possible short-term system near Central America which is looking pretty good on radar right now.
1) The main MDR wave we're seeing in the models, starts forming on August 19. Slowly meanders across the MDR and starts rapidly intensifying around August 26. Peaks as a 952 mbar MH and directly hits Bermuda.
2) WCar/GOM system, forms August 23. Moves between Yucatan and Cuba and then rapidly intensifies into a ~cat 2 hurricane (971 mbar) before an Alabama landfall on August 28.
3) MDR wave behind #1. Starts forming on August 25. Remains a moderate TS for most of its MDR run, further intensifies on August 31. Still intensifying and at 976 mbar at the end of the run.
4) Small system in the northern Atlantic which randomly pops up on September 1. Not sure if it's fully tropical, but if so it would technically count as a NS.

[SFLcane]

image removed

[Steve]

We will see how GFS does. ICON got 98L. As all the posts above show, GFS shows a burst of 3 or 4 systems in the next 2 weeks. I’m assuming it’s MJO related. 4 would take us to the G storm a weak or so before the peak.

[Blown Away]

Image removed
06z GEFS... Very active

[tolakram]

Please do not post images that are marked as personal use only. Weathermodels is very explicit about GIFS, a little more vague about non animated images. If the image has PERSONAL USE ONLY on the image then do not post it here. Thanks.

[Iceresistance]

6z GEFS has a much stronger member consistency compared to the past several runs.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_fh48-384.gif

[wxman57]

Interestingly enough, Texas is getting its own Harvey from what looks like the BoC system.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220817/824a81b6a5e05575fcfa843a29c029c0.jpg

That rain appears to be front-related. All rain from the disturbance goes into Mexico.

[SFLcane]

Wxman57 any thoughts on the GEFS and wave of Africa?

[wxman57]

I know that some of you are quite excited about hurricane development, but I would urge you to use caution when believing the long-range GFS. It has a habit of predicting many modelcanes in the long range. That said, the disturbance in the NW Caribbean looks more impressive, to me, than the models are indicating. GFS, EC, and ICON have it over Nicaragua at 12Z today, but it appears to be farther north over the NW Caribbean. Big difference as far as development potential.

[toad strangler]

I know that some of you are quite excited about hurricane development, but I would urge you to use caution when believing the long-range GFS. It has a habit of predicting many modelcanes in the long range.

True, but NOAA has had the MDR highlighted in it's global tropical hazard product for a while now. Very good chance a storm's a brewing. The where is it going to go is the huge question and 300 hours out is Alice In Wonderland range for sure.

[wxman57]

I know that some of you are quite excited about hurricane development, but I would urge you to use caution when believing the long-range GFS. It has a habit of predicting many modelcanes in the long range.

True, but NOAA has had the MDR highlighted in it's global tropical hazard product for a while now. Very good chance a storm's a brewing. The where is it going to go is the huge question and 300 hours out is Alice In Wonderland range for sure.

What??? We should keep an eye on the MDR in late August? That's insane!

I notice that the GFS & Euro are predicting strong northerly wind shear across the NW Gulf as the disturbance approaches on Saturday. That should keep it south of TX.

[skyline385]

Interestingly enough, Texas is getting its own Harvey from what looks like the BoC system.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220817/824a81b6a5e05575fcfa843a29c029c0.jpg

That rain appears to be front-related. All rain from the disturbance goes into Mexico.

It is front related but on the vorticity plot there seems to be some sort of Fujiwhara interaction with the BoC system.




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[skyline385]

Wow, GEFS took my FL shield joke personally




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