2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Pelicane
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2381 Postby Pelicane » Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:47 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:What the GFS has been doing through the last few days of runs is splitting the wave in two sending one piece north of PR while the southern half forms in the western Caribbean on a later date, my thinking is something forms in between


The reason the GFS splits the energy is due to an upper-low that will be forming and then dipping SW into its way. It's actually pretty similar to Ian's setup except the upper-low with Ian was slower and paralleled it, while this one wants to dive down and pinwheel the energy north. This interaction can cause widely different solutions. On the latest GEFS, The faster ensemble members move this into the Caribbean while the slower members interact with the low and move it north.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2382 Postby blp » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:00 am

You got to love the GFS. Not even the CMC in it's heyday could pull this off. :lol:

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2383 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:00 am

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2384 Postby skyline385 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:07 am

GEFS 0Z shows some actual development from the TW instead of the typical ghost vorticity.
Image

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2385 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:09 am


What can we expect from this tropical wave?
just a bunch of aimless downpours or a strong Category 4/5 hurricane?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2386 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:12 am

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2387 Postby REDHurricane » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:14 am

blp wrote:You got to love the GFS. Not even the CMC in it's heyday could pull this off. :lol:

https://i.ibb.co/8dW4mXJ/gfs-z850-vort-watl-44.png


The GFS has extended its CAG affinity all the way out to the central Atlantic... all of you who are making fun, just wait until 2023 where the CAG will become the single most powerful force in Atlantic & EPac TC formation and eternally terrorize us all
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2388 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:14 am

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2389 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:30 am

Image

Frankly can't fathom why more people aren't discussing this
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2390 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:48 am

weeniepatrol wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/DZFc677f/47489913.gif

Frankly can't fathom why more people aren't discussing this


Last post I'll make, for now, but this low-rider is tracking along 85-87 F waters into a La Nina October Caribbean. y'all do the math

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2391 Postby Teban54 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:56 am

weeniepatrol wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/DZFc677f/47489913.gif

Frankly can't fathom why more people aren't discussing this

Looks like pre-Fiona right when models started waking up.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2392 Postby skyline385 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:10 am

weeniepatrol wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/DZFc677f/47489913.gif

Frankly can't fathom why more people aren't discussing this


What's funny is that its not even designated as AOI currently, probably going to see something in the next TWO. I do agree that is looking very good.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2393 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:59 am

:wink:
skyline385 wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/DZFc677f/47489913.gif

Frankly can't fathom why more people aren't discussing this


What's funny is that its not even designated as AOI currently, probably going to see something in the next TWO. I do agree that is looking very good.


Wasn’t it a ghost? :lol:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2394 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:01 am

SFLcane wrote::wink:
skyline385 wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/DZFc677f/47489913.gif

Frankly can't fathom why more people aren't discussing this


What's funny is that its not even designated as AOI currently, probably going to see something in the next TWO. I do agree that is looking very good.


Wasn’t it a ghost? :lol:

It's a ghost until it isn't, another very dangerous setup.
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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2395 Postby skyline385 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:44 am

jlauderdal wrote:
SFLcane wrote::wink:
skyline385 wrote:
What's funny is that its not even designated as AOI currently, probably going to see something in the next TWO. I do agree that is looking very good.


Wasn’t it a ghost? :lol:

It's a ghost until it isn't, another very dangerous setup.

In red is the spurious or ghost vorticity the GEFS developed yesterday. In blue is the current AOI being yanked away by a trough. So yes there was a ghost modelcane in yesterdays GEFS runs. The current AOI is an actual system which never made it to the Caribbean in yesterdays runs, you can also go back and check the vorticity loop i posted in this thread.

Image


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2396 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:
GCANE wrote:Wave hitting Virgin Islands Oct 10 looks interesting


Why is interesting?


GFS had a surface low develop yesterday.
Today nada.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2397 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:52 pm

Several models including the 12Z Euro, ICON, and JMA are showing low surface pressures being left behind next week in the SW Caribbean after 91L is gone fwiw.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2398 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:24 am

So at least according to the most recent CMC run, after 91L crashes into CA a few more waves with some signature seem to develop in the MDR by the October 15 timeframe
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2399 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 05, 2022 3:36 pm

LarryWx wrote:Several models including the 12Z Euro, ICON, and JMA are showing low surface pressures being left behind next week in the SW Caribbean after 91L is gone fwiw.


Yep:

GEPS:
Image

GFS:
Image

The sooner we get out of October the better for us here in South Florida.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2400 Postby kevin » Thu Oct 06, 2022 2:18 pm

Across the Atlantic, the euro is showing potential for a (sub)tropical system early next week in the Mediterranean Sea. Quite a few euro members show something, almost all in the 1005 - 1015 mb range. Nothing spectacular (yet), but thought it would be interesting to share. GFS also showed a tropical-like storm in the 06z run, but dropped it in 12z.



Here's what the 12z euro has before landfall near Montenegro/Albania.

Image
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