2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Clearcloudz]

What's crazy is a few days ago models were showing gulf being active during middle of August but now almost non-existent activity shown in the gulf from ensemble members.

[REDHurricane]

What's crazy is a few days ago models were showing gulf being active during middle of August but now almost non-existent activity shown in the gulf from ensemble members.

Interestingly, GEPS has been predicting something forming in the WCar and going up into the Gulf for at least a few days now. Looks like the rest of the models have the tropical wave crossing into the EPac first and then developing, but GEPS has it moving just slowly enough that it's able to form before it hits Central America. If it were GEFS predicting this I would say it's probably nothing, but if I remember correctly GEPS has been more conservative with regards to the CAG so far this season, so maybe it's picking up on a signal ~7-10 days out that the other models aren't. Still probably nothing, but it's something I'll be keeping an eye on.

[Cpv17]

What's crazy is a few days ago models were showing gulf being active during middle of August but now almost non-existent activity shown in the gulf from ensemble members.

That was the GEFS showing that and it was over a week out. Wouldn’t take that very seriously. The GEFS has been blowing up storms in the Gulf off and on all summer.

[aspen]

06z GFS spins up TS Earl off of the southeast coast next Sunday/Monday, and maybe there’s something in the central subtropics around the same time too.

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs also shows something trying to spin up near Louisiana late next week (Thur/Friday), but doesn't quite get fully going.

[MHC Tracking]

Becoming more confident that what's being depicted on models indicates the beginning of the long-prophesied "switch-flip"
 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1555966506793680896

[crownweather]

Becoming more confident that what's being depicted on models indicates the beginning of the long-prophesied "switch-flip"
https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1555966506793680896

Thanks for sharing my tweet!!!

I suspect that from here on out that we'll see the models continue to "wake up" and show a progressively more active look. I wasn't buying into the whole quiet look of the models for the next 10-16 days that they were showing even a couple of days ago. It looked weird to me and I think now we may be seeing the models finally catching onto the idea that the switch is about to be flipped. In fact, as I already mentioned, I think we'll see the models get even busier in terms of what they show over the next several days or so.

[Clearcloudz]

What's crazy is a few days ago models were showing gulf being active during middle of August but now almost non-existent activity shown in the gulf from ensemble members.

Interestingly, GEPS has been predicting something forming in the WCar and going up into the Gulf for at least a few days now. Looks like the rest of the models have the tropical wave crossing into the EPac first and then developing, but GEPS has it moving just slowly enough that it's able to form before it hits Central America. If it were GEFS predicting this I would say it's probably nothing, but if I remember correctly GEPS has been more conservative with regards to the CAG so far this season, so maybe it's picking up on a signal ~7-10 days out that the other models aren't. Still probably nothing, but it's something I'll be keeping an eye on.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2022080600/gem-ememb_lowlocs_atl_32.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2022080600/gem-ememb_lowlocs_atl_38.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2022080600/gem-ememb_lowlocs_atl_44.png

I agree GEPS Ensembles has consistently been showing something coming off the Western Caribbean middle of August. I went back a looked at the last 5 model cycles and it continues to show several members coming into the gulf. Here is a 12Z GEPS update with a pretty decent signal in that area. The only reason I want this to happen is Texas could really use a lot of rain.

[skyline385]

What's crazy is a few days ago models were showing gulf being active during middle of August but now almost non-existent activity shown in the gulf from ensemble members.

Interestingly, GEPS has been predicting something forming in the WCar and going up into the Gulf for at least a few days now. Looks like the rest of the models have the tropical wave crossing into the EPac first and then developing, but GEPS has it moving just slowly enough that it's able to form before it hits Central America. If it were GEFS predicting this I would say it's probably nothing, but if I remember correctly GEPS has been more conservative with regards to the CAG so far this season, so maybe it's picking up on a signal ~7-10 days out that the other models aren't. Still probably nothing, but it's something I'll be keeping an eye on.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2022080600/gem-ememb_lowlocs_atl_32.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2022080600/gem-ememb_lowlocs_atl_38.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2022080600/gem-ememb_lowlocs_atl_44.png

There is a post in the Indicators thread about how there have been zero recorded CAGs in the month of August historically. So yea probably not happening.

[WiscoWx02]

What's crazy is a few days ago models were showing gulf being active during middle of August but now almost non-existent activity shown in the gulf from ensemble members.

Interestingly, GEPS has been predicting something forming in the WCar and going up into the Gulf for at least a few days now. Looks like the rest of the models have the tropical wave crossing into the EPac first and then developing, but GEPS has it moving just slowly enough that it's able to form before it hits Central America. If it were GEFS predicting this I would say it's probably nothing, but if I remember correctly GEPS has been more conservative with regards to the CAG so far this season, so maybe it's picking up on a signal ~7-10 days out that the other models aren't. Still probably nothing, but it's something I'll be keeping an eye on.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2022080600/gem-ememb_lowlocs_atl_32.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2022080600/gem-ememb_lowlocs_atl_38.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2022080600/gem-ememb_lowlocs_atl_44.png

There is a post in the Indicators thread about how there have been zero recorded CAGs in the month of August historically. So yea probably not happening.

Yeah the odds of anything actually forming here are basically 0. The GEFS and GFS always spins up these phantom hurricanes due to bias associated with vorticity that streams off of South America into the SW Caribbean Sea if I am not mistaken. If it were showing this in October then yeah I would be a bit more behind it but would still be skeptical.

[Nimbus]

The GEPS at least has a real surface wave it is initializing.
Not sure what would pull this north into the Caribbean but lots of early season storms do move up from Panama.
No other model support but its pretty juicy down there.

[Clearcloudz]

EURO Ensembles coming on board (even though somewhat of a weak signal) of something coming out of the Gulf next week.
GEFS and GEPS have been showing this on its solutions as well so something to watch if the EURO future cycles pick up on this.

[Cpv17]

EURO Ensembles coming on board (even though somewhat of a weak signal) of something coming out of the Gulf next week.
GEFS and GEPS have been showing this on its solutions as well so something to watch if the EURO future cycles pick up on this.

https://i.imgur.com/CC2ur00.jpg

My area here in central Wharton County is under an exceptional drought. Bring on the rain! Driest it’s been here since 2011. Cannot wait for a pattern change.

[Clearcloudz]

12Z ICON today

[crownweather]

I took a look at the model guidance for today from a week ago and none of the guidance had any indication of the tropical wave now off of the coast of Africa.

My point is that it's a fool's errand to declare that hurricane season is "over" just because of the guidance not showing anything a week out.

Interestingly, the 00Z GFS model hints at three areas to watch over the next 12 to 15 days. Our east Atlantic tropical wave ; possible tropical mischief near the East Coast of the US next week and possible northern Gulf of Mexico tropical mischief also next week.

I suspect that we'll see the models continue to trend more aggressively in the days to come.

[REDHurricane]

00z GEPS shows even stronger signals of development in the SW Caribbean beginning in about 5 days and this time has a storm making landfall somewhere further east closer to the Florida panhandle in around 10 days, while EPS and GEPS unanimously continue to predict zero activity in the Caribbean or Gulf during this time frame. Anyone have any idea why this is happening?


GEPS


EPS


GEFS

[SFLcane]

Guys wanna track hurricanes? Barrage potentially coming if the Gefs is to be believed.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Guys wanna track hurricanes? Barrage potentially coming if the Gefs is to be believed.

https://i.postimg.cc/pT72VgNC/B69356-E5-2265-4910-8-C77-2-C2300-D65-AC2.gif

That is August 7th at 0z. About 5 runs back now.

[ChrisH-UK]

06z GFS

The East Coast

[SFLcane]

Guys wanna track hurricanes? Barrage potentially coming if the Gefs is to be believed.

https://i.postimg.cc/pT72VgNC/B69356-E5-2265-4910-8-C77-2-C2300-D65-AC2.gif

That is August 7th at 0z. About 5 runs back now.

Sure lol, just showing the flip Maybe coming.