2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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- Blown Away
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
06z GFS... Continues showing a low/TS/STS in the Bahamas in @4 days then moving W near FL then OTS...
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Blown Away wrote::uarrow:
https://i.imgur.com/kHVy8Xg.gif
06z GFS... Continues showing a low/TS/STS in the Bahamas in @4 days then moving W near FL then OTS...
And another one passing over PR. We expect a big rain event here this weekend but hopefully with no strong winds.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Potent hybrid system there.. certainly some impacts across Florida. Maybe some coastal flooding with the King Tides
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
cycloneye wrote:Blown Away wrote::uarrow:
https://i.imgur.com/kHVy8Xg.gif
06z GFS... Continues showing a low/TS/STS in the Bahamas in @4 days then moving W near FL then OTS...
And another one passing over PR. We expect a big rain event here this weekend but hopefully with no strong winds.
Yes, I zoomed out. Looks like a big low pressure gyre bringing gusty winds & rain all over Caribbean, Bahamas, SE CONUS...
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
*this not the lemon that the NHC has outlined now*
There is a major blowup in the GEFS signal for a system in the W. Atlantic sometime during the middle of this month.
There is a major blowup in the GEFS signal for a system in the W. Atlantic sometime during the middle of this month.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Gfs has a 960ml monster doing a burnout just south of PR going N NE. Fantasy land range though 360hrs
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
HuracanMaster wrote:Gfs has a 960ml monster doing a burnout just south of PR going N NE. Fantasy land range though 360hrs
The Canadian ensembles are also hinting at somethig, Definately fantasy land for now, but something to keep an eye on after the potential hybrid system is finished doing whatever it does.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
All attention is focused on the orange (and understandably so), but it's also intriguing to see how the GFS has been rather interested about the prospect of a stronger mid-November Caribbean system.
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- Stormybajan
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Lmao not sure whats going on with the 12z GFS this run, but looks like anywhere from the northern Venezuelan coast, Grenada, Trinidad and Barbados need to invest in a boat over the next 2 weeks surely doesnt happen?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Stormybajan wrote:Lmao not sure whats going on with the 12z GFS this run, but looks like anywhere from the northern Venezuelan coast, Grenada, Trinidad and Barbados need to invest in a boat over the next 2 weeks surely doesnt happen?
https://i.postimg.cc/J0bP0GHx/ezgif-com-gif-maker.gif
if this actually happens, just like what GFS shows in this round, I delete my account from this community
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
18z GFS develops the same wave as the 12z GFS, although it’s slower to do so and only becomes a TC in the SWCar. In other words, similar to Julia, except it stalls out in the medium range. This wave reaches the Lesser Antilles in just 4-5 days and should be monitored closely.
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
We will be watching for development until Thanksgiving according to the GEFS
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I think another Caribbean hurricane is possible before this season finally ends. These La Nina years are notorious.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Hurricane Mike wrote:I think another Caribbean hurricane is possible before this season finally ends. These La Nina years are notorious.
Honestly wouldn't surprise me if this season continues into December. Crazy, I know.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The GFS and CMC show a vigorous wave heading west in the long-range with the CMC further south.
GFS:
CMC:
GFS:
CMC:
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
A little more defined on the 18Z GFS also going out to the very long-range. A bit rare to have a tropical wave make it that far west at that latitude this time of year:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
gatorcane wrote:A little more defined on the 18Z GFS also going out to the very long-range. A bit rare to have a tropical wave make it that far west at that latitude this time of year:
https://i.postimg.cc/XqbMPjxW/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh192-300.gif
Wouldn't surprise me considering how delayed this season seems to be lol
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
gatorcane wrote:A little more defined on the 18Z GFS also going out to the very long-range. A bit rare to have a tropical wave make it that far west at that latitude this time of year:
https://i.postimg.cc/XqbMPjxW/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh192-300.gif
Owen is that you?
Yeah, in 2022 anything is possible!
Interesting track of that system too
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
FireRat wrote:gatorcane wrote:A little more defined on the 18Z GFS also going out to the very long-range. A bit rare to have a tropical wave make it that far west at that latitude this time of year:
https://i.postimg.cc/XqbMPjxW/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh192-300.gif
Owen is that you?
Yeah, in 2022 anything is possible!
Interesting track of that system too
There's a weak to moderate signal on the various ensemble runs for something in the SW Caribbean from next weekend into early to mid next week fwiw. The 0Z GFS fwiw actually has a strong TS there then. Keep in mind that it will be pretty late in November by then. But it being La Niña during the active era, one never knows even though the odds are low (under 10%). The SW Caribbean remains the #1 most concentrated area for genesis though with less and less activity:
Nov 11-20 geneses 1851-2015: add 2016's MH Otto to this
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/nov_11_20.png
Nov 21-30 geneses:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/nov_21_30.png
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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