2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[skyline385]

GFS pushing back timeframe, looks like either a weak sheared mess or no development.

Not seeing the time frame being pushed on GFS, i don't doubt that it is going to be a sheared mess but the timeframe to me looks the same.

It at least the trend during the last couple of runs is that it pushes the monsoonal low/trough further west inland over C.A., thus more interaction with land so no development as early as it was showing during the past few days.

https://i.imgur.com/5l5aBKc.gif

I completely agree on that, it has pushed the system towards CA with every run which hinders development but the general timeframe has been consistent so far.

[Spacecoast]

0z ECMF shows two possible (~ 30% chance of) genesis..
Epac (ep52), and Wcar (al53). Both developing into weak systems.



FSU now showing NAV genesis probability (19% ), along with GFS (22%) next 168 hours near Yucatan

[cycloneye]

A change.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1526251666688950274




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1526252743672975360




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1526253009323311107

[wxman57]

Just a modelcane. We forecast TCs in all basins. Since the last GFS "upgrade", it has been developing spurious TCs in every basin throughout each season. It's worse than the old Canadian in that respect. Our rule is that if only the GFS is predicting development, then it's most likely not going to happen.

[zzh]

EC 12Z has it developed in the Gulf. Similar to Cristobal 2020.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/FRfuPfJ.png
EC 12Z has it developed in the Gulf. Similar to Cristobal 2020.

Well that's new...looks like a weak EPAC vortmax gets pinwheeled around the CAG and eventually finds its way over water again in the Bay of Campeche. I believe this is the first run in which the Euro has depicted a legitimate TC on either side of Central America.

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/FRfuPfJ.png
EC 12Z has it developed in the Gulf. Similar to Cristobal 2020.

Well that's new...looks like a weak EPAC vortmax gets pinwheeled around the CAG and eventually finds its way over water again in the Bay of Campeche. I believe this is the first run in which the Euro has depicted a legitimate TC on either side of Central America.
https://i.ibb.co/brBGkHk/ec-fast-uv850-vort-watl-fh96-216.gif

Now let's see if it repeats at 00z and if it does, then there is game.

[AlphaToOmega]

For some reason, the models are just not seeing subtropical development.

[skyline385]

18Z GFS with the classic Gulf run

[hurricane2025]

280 hours out

[aspen]

18Z GFS with the classic Gulf run

If you combine the Euro’s loop in the BoC and the GFS’ broad Louisiana landfall system, then you get pretty much an exact copy of Cristobal ‘20.

The GFS has been insistent on the system stalling for a little bit and a TC forming near the Yucatán, but I think the Euro’s Cristobal 2.0 formation scenario is more probable. This broad gyre would have to consolidate pretty quickly for the GFS to verify. Maybe the rapid consolidation is being helped by land interaction, pinching off a portion of the larger gyre.

[Fancy1001]

Honestly, I’m just hoping the storm develops so that we don’t break the preseason storm streak.

[AlphaToOmega]

So far, the GEFS (GFS ensemble) and GEPS (CMC ensemble) are suggesting a storm forming in the Caribbean (similar to Alberto, 2018). The ECENS (ECMWF ensemble) is suggesting a storm forming in the East Pacific/Bay of Campeche (similar to Amanda, 2020).

[skyline385]

18Z GFS with the classic Gulf run

If you combine the Euro’s loop in the BoC and the GFS’ broad Louisiana landfall system, then you get pretty much an exact copy of Cristobal ‘20.

The GFS has been insistent on the system stalling for a little bit and a TC forming near the Yucatán, but I think the Euro’s Cristobal 2.0 formation scenario is more probable. This broad gyre would have to consolidate pretty quickly for the GFS to verify. Maybe the rapid consolidation is being helped by land interaction, pinching off a portion of the larger gyre.

That's a good analog actually, the timeframe matches as well.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1526391627715006465

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS sure loves the idea of blowing this potential system up in the Gulf of Honduras and having it be a very slow-moving system.

[aspen]

Euro and CMC go back to EPac development, switching from Cristobal ‘20 as an analog to Amanda ‘20.

[skyline385]

Euro and CMC go back to EPac development, switching from Cristobal ‘20 as an analog to Amanda ‘20.

Meanwhile GFS seems to now want to form a Cat 2/3 in the Gulf, not really buying this solution.

[AlphaToOmega]

Is our pre-season streak in real jeopardy right now? The subtropical ridge looks strong, and Caribbean development seems unlikely.

[skyline385]

And there's the NOLA run, GFS is just taking turns at different landfalls every run.