2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun May 15 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Today, May 15th, marks the first day of routine issuance of the
Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2022. This product
describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential
for tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The
Tropical Weather Outlook is issued from May 15 through November 30
each year. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM,
2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November,
the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A graphical version of the Tropical Weather Outlook is available on
the web at: https://www.hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[wxman57]

Chances of the GFS coming even close to verifying are about 1-2%. It's all by itself in that forecast, which almost always means nope. I expect something weak on the Pacific side.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow GFS.

Has EPS gained anymore ensemble members?

[aspen]

Wow GFS.

Has EPS gained anymore ensemble members?

On WeatherNerds, most members are in the EPac but some get into the Bay of Campeche.

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off

[skyline385]

06Z GEFS

[Category5Kaiju]

06Z GEFS

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220515/26e80971fcae3a23c3a91cd7bea34953.jpg

Wait...do I see some sub-950 mbar members there? If this actually happens in May, then I think that would be a once-in-a-lifetime fluke freak occurrence. Not buying it, but I will say, the GFS is very adamant about it

[skyline385]

GEPS with the same track as GEFS.

[Cat5James]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220515/6ecb7b6fbbba67c638fdff0a35ad5466.gif

GEPS with the same track as GEFS.

Was just about to post this… CMC slowly picking up on this as well. GFS credibility on the line here. if anything does develop GFS gets major props.

[Kingarabian]

GFS blew it in the WPAC about 2 weeks ago - in classic fashion. Odds are stacked against it

[toad strangler]

GFS blew it in the WPAC about 2 weeks ago - in classic fashion. Odds are stacked against it

Ya, low single digit odds just for the sake of ya never know. But we’ve seen this GFS movie in this region dozens of times.

[skyline385]

GFS blew it in the WPAC about 2 weeks ago - in classic fashion. Odds are stacked against it

Not just WPAC, it miscalculated Asani in the IO as well. However it did start backing off on Asani pretty early.

[skyline385]

12Z again with a weaker ridge than the previous run, not sure what the GFS is on...

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS standing firm on it's solution through 180hrs...

[skyline385]

12z GFS standing firm on it's solution through 180hrs...

Its moving back towards a Cat 1 panhandle hit which is more realistic compared to a Cat 2/3 SFL October run...

[Category5Kaiju]

12z GFS standing firm on it's solution through 180hrs...

Its moving back towards a panhandle hit which is more realistic compared to a SFL October run...

The system apparently could care less about the surrounding dry air and cocoons itself in a protective wet environment while deepening into the 970s

[skyline385]

12z GFS standing firm on it's solution through 180hrs...

Its moving back towards a panhandle hit which is more realistic compared to a SFL October run...

The system apparently could care less about the surrounding dry air and cocoons itself in a protective wet environment while deepening into the 970s

Wondering if its because most of the recent runs have it going over the loop current which is pretty strong right now...

[StPeteMike]

GFS blew it in the WPAC about 2 weeks ago - in classic fashion. Odds are stacked against it

I normally have less faith with the GFS for WPAC than I do when it comes to EPAC/Atlantic. That said, I also believe it had a system in the EPAC for last week that never materialized.

I’m pretty confident something will form though, we will see if the other models jump on in the next few days.

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS blew it in the WPAC about 2 weeks ago - in classic fashion. Odds are stacked against it

I normally have less faith with the GFS for WPAC than I do when it comes to EPAC/Atlantic. That said, I also believe it had a system in the EPAC for last week that never materialized.

I’m pretty confident something will form though, we will see if the other models jump on in the next few days.

Interestingly, it looks like that potential Atlantic system is the only definitive TC that GFS predicts will happen anytime soon anywhere in the world (a little spinup in the South Pacific, but totally not as strong as that Atlantic system). The signal for that EPAC system died off, and the WPAC is just a jumbled monsoonal mess for the time being

[wxman57]

I still think that the most likely outcome would be a disturbance in the East Pac that might have a shot at development next weekend. GFS hurricane = bogus.

[cycloneye]

Ratio of false alarms from GFS is high.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1525888689288712192