2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#381 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue May 17, 2022 5:39 pm

Yup, GFS has dropped the system finally…also looks like the CAG does not favor EPAC or Atlantic development
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#382 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue May 17, 2022 5:43 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Yup, GFS has dropped the system finally…also looks like the CAG does not favor EPAC or Atlantic development

Given lack of model support from other areas and the timeframe constantly shifting you kinda had a feeling the GFS would give up on its solution eventually. It took a while but it finally did. Looking increasingly likely that either a brief weak EPAC system or nothing at all will come out of this (probably leaning towards the latter tbh).
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#383 Postby aspen » Tue May 17, 2022 5:49 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Yup, GFS has dropped the system finally…also looks like the CAG does not favor EPAC or Atlantic development

Given lack of model support from other areas and the timeframe constantly shifting you kinda had a feeling the GFS would give up on its solution eventually. It took a while but it finally did. Looking increasingly likely that either a brief weak EPAC system or nothing at all will come out of this (probably leaning towards the latter tbh).

You spoke a little too early…the 18z GFS keeps the CAG around for a while and eventually gets a system out of it.

I’m thinking my vote for no pre-season system might verify at this rate.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#384 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 17, 2022 5:56 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Yup, GFS has dropped the system finally…also looks like the CAG does not favor EPAC or Atlantic development


lol GFS simply does not want to let it go, although development has pushed way beyond into fantasy land.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#385 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue May 17, 2022 5:57 pm

aspen wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Yup, GFS has dropped the system finally…also looks like the CAG does not favor EPAC or Atlantic development

Given lack of model support from other areas and the timeframe constantly shifting you kinda had a feeling the GFS would give up on its solution eventually. It took a while but it finally did. Looking increasingly likely that either a brief weak EPAC system or nothing at all will come out of this (probably leaning towards the latter tbh).

You spoke a little too early…the 18z GFS keeps the CAG around for a while and eventually gets a system out of it.

I’m thinking my vote for no pre-season system might verify at this rate.


If it does verify, all hell will break loose in the wx community. :lol:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#386 Postby hurricane2025 » Tue May 17, 2022 5:59 pm

It pushed it back way back fantasy land big fantasy land
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#387 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 17, 2022 6:06 pm

Totally normal for May nothing wrong here :D

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#388 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Tue May 17, 2022 6:12 pm

GFS still blowing this thing up despite the delayed genesis in the 18z run. :lol: At least its hurricane shenanigans can be forgiven this time with that entirely in the 240+ hr range.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#389 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 17, 2022 6:16 pm

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#390 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 17, 2022 6:17 pm

GFS on a mission to wipe NOLA out :lol:

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#391 Postby Stormcenter » Tue May 17, 2022 6:52 pm

All kidding aside this persistence even if it’s now delayed
time wise is a little concerning.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#392 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue May 17, 2022 6:57 pm

We literally see this every May with the GFS. Nothing will likely come of it. It'll keep pushing it until early-June before dropping it entirely.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#393 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 17, 2022 7:30 pm

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#394 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 17, 2022 7:41 pm



The loop current in particular worries me, its really strong right now on the SST maps and the 18Z GFS pretty much rides over 27-28 C waters on it
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#395 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue May 17, 2022 8:30 pm

GFS is like: "I refuse to cave! I am very pissed, so I am going to show you a 130 mph, 949 mbar hurricane in the Gulf on June 1! How you like that??!"
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#396 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 17, 2022 8:34 pm

18Z GEFS

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#397 Postby Cpv17 » Tue May 17, 2022 9:06 pm



I completely agree with Mark here. Something will most likely develop over the western Caribbean or BOC but it probably won’t happen till the first or second week of June.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#398 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 17, 2022 11:08 pm

Visible vorticity on the 0Z GFS at 102hrs, looks like it might go back to pre-18Z run again

EDIT: Nope it did not lol
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#399 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue May 17, 2022 11:40 pm

So it seems like the GFS now really likes the idea that this upcoming CAG is not going to immediately cause TC genesis but rather stall over land and have the northern part of it become dominant near the end of the month (thereby explaining the delay in TC genesis). Interesting to see the extreme persistency in the GFS wanting some WCAR system to form later this month, I am honestly extremely intrigued and amazed at how this model has maintained its dedication regarding this.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#400 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 17, 2022 11:44 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:So it seems like the GFS now really likes the idea that this upcoming CAG is not going to immediately cause TC genesis but rather stall over land and have the northern part of it become dominant near the end of the month (thereby explaining the delay in TC genesis). Interesting to see the extreme persistency in the GFS wanting some WCAR system to form later this month, I am honestly extremely intrigued and amazed at how this model has maintained its dedication regarding this.


Same, I think everyone realizes that this system is most likely not forming but I find it very fascinating that the GFS does not want to let this one go
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