2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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weeniepatrol
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1121 Postby weeniepatrol » Fri Aug 05, 2022 12:35 pm

toad strangler wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
SFLcane wrote:I found the hurricane guys... :lol:

Atlantic is a plie of wasteland right now. Huge wavebreaking! Wake me up when something interesting pops up.

https://i.postimg.cc/KYVTfTzx/gfs.gif

Incoming inactive season.


It's a good time to be a bear.

http://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1555599514437918720?s=20&t=2d2KQGFlGKX_WTFMFWP6rg


Just loaded up on $MDR monthlies! gonna print :lol:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1122 Postby weeniepatrol » Fri Aug 05, 2022 1:20 pm

lol

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1123 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2022 1:33 pm

Turns WNW.

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1124 Postby skyline385 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 1:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:Turns WNW.

Image

That same wave has been popping up on ICON and CMC too.


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1125 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2022 1:52 pm

It has three. :D

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1126 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 05, 2022 1:58 pm

Everyone thinks they are a comedian. :roll: :lol:

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555620485957812224


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1127 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2022 1:59 pm

Looks at the movement of the storm at the end.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1128 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:01 pm

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1129 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:02 pm

cycloneye wrote:Looks at the movement of the storm at the end.

https://i.imgur.com/WRTejrM.gif



Shhhh :D
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1130 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:02 pm

Please explain to me what on earth is this lol!? :lol:

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1131 Postby caneseddy » Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:13 pm

What's interesting about this run is that on July 25, Hurricane Mike posted the following (referring to the second storm) since first one probably aint' goin to happen



Super-super long range, the CFS climate model a day or two ago showed a wave leaving Africa soon that becomes a storm/hurricane in the Gulf around August 7th, and then shows a long-tracked Cape Verde storm that goes north of the U.S. Virgin Islands, through the Bahamas and straight into Southeast Florida by August 24.

All speculative, but a sign of possible activity to come
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1132 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:20 pm

caneseddy wrote:What's interesting about this run is that on July 25, Hurricane Mike posted the following (referring to the second storm) since first one probably aint' goin to happen



Super-super long range, the CFS climate model a day or two ago showed a wave leaving Africa soon that becomes a storm/hurricane in the Gulf around August 7th, and then shows a long-tracked Cape Verde storm that goes north of the U.S. Virgin Islands, through the Bahamas and straight into Southeast Florida by August 24.

All speculative, but a sign of possible activity to come


Andrew fought dry air and shear all the way across the basin to well N of PR when it all changed. Not bringing up THAT storm for any other reason than the calendar and similar track if it verifies :D :spam:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1133 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:48 pm

:sick:

Image

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1134 Postby LarryWx » Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:55 pm



Much more active with this MDR wave vs the last several EPS runs. It likely is the most active run so far.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1135 Postby lsuhurricane » Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:56 pm

Image

12z Euro Ensembles are seeing quite an active spread!
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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1136 Postby skyline385 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:00 pm

12Z EPS decided to go nuts huh. Hilarious how i see atleast 3 members take a 90 degree turn like they hit a wall lol.

Image


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1137 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:09 pm

Image
I think we have a player. Notice a L bend at the end of run.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1138 Postby zzh » Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:10 pm

The chance of recurve is high with the presence of cut off lows.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1139 Postby aspen » Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:13 pm


A lot of support, but I’m half expecting this to suddenly vanish like the one from last week lol
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1140 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:19 pm

aspen wrote:

A lot of support, but I’m half expecting this to suddenly vanish like the one from last week lol


Question is, is this the high water mark and the models back off? Or do they keep trending up?
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