2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

skyline385 · #821 Postby **skyline385** » Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:13 am

EURO decided to jump back in, ICON looking good too

#822 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:25 am

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1538828087974043648

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1538829617359986688

MHC Tracking · #823 Postby **MHC Tracking** » Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:40 am

Deshaunrob17 · #824 Postby **Deshaunrob17** » Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:16 am

to
The GFS and Euro not blowing up the EPAC with major hurricanes during the next 2 weeks in late June. That’s telling me a lot about which Basin is favored :double:

#825 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:36 pm

The CMC is the only model right now that tries to develop MDR's second wave.

skyline385 · #826 Postby **skyline385** » Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:02 pm

cycloneye wrote: https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1538828087974043648

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1538829617359986688

12Z EURO does show the wave picking up speed inside the Caribbean, just gets slammed into CA without much development. The trades get stronger just as the wave approaches the Lesser Antilles.

captainbarbossa19 · #827 Postby **captainbarbossa19** » Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:27 pm

Some models are hinting now at a weak low forming in the Gulf next week.

skyline385 · #828 Postby **skyline385** » Mon Jun 20, 2022 3:37 pm

EURO going full GFS :lol:

NXStumpy_Robothing · #829 Postby **NXStumpy_Robothing** » Mon Jun 20, 2022 3:41 pm

skyline385 wrote:EURO going full GFS

https://i.imgur.com/KCZJIK7.png

Of course two of the stronger ensemble members hit Lake Charles :lol:

. Wouldn't be hurricane season without it.

Interesting to see the uptick in activity regardless; iirc, Euro has been too aggressive on tropical wave TCG in the past, so interested to see if it's actually sniffing a signal or just overamplifying the vorticity in the region from the strengthening WAM and westerly trades. Time will tell of course.

skyline385 · #830 Postby **skyline385** » Mon Jun 20, 2022 3:53 pm

UKMET also has this little system dropping down from the East Coast into the Gulf.

aspen · #831 Postby **aspen** » Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:42 pm

Happy Hour GFS spins up yet another CAG hurricane, but it also develops the first wave at around 174-180hrs. Looks like a Bret ‘17 repeat.

#832 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:50 pm

aspen wrote:Happy Hour GFS spins up yet another CAG hurricane, but it also develops the first wave at around 174-180hrs. Looks like a Bret ‘17 repeat.

Loop since it emerges Africa on Wednesday.

Category5Kaiju · #833 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:51 pm

aspen wrote:Happy Hour GFS spins up yet another CAG hurricane, but it also develops the first wave at around 174-180hrs. Looks like a Bret ‘17 repeat.

It looks a bit more north than Bret (doesn't crash into Venezuela), but yeah looks like a weak TS to me. The fact that GFS is showing it makes me think that this isn't really a ghost system after all. Also wow, the GFS's Central American bias is really on fire, isn't it

skyline385 · #834 Postby **skyline385** » Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:06 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
aspen wrote:Happy Hour GFS spins up yet another CAG hurricane, but it also develops the first wave at around 174-180hrs. Looks like a Bret ‘17 repeat.

It looks a bit more north than Bret (doesn't crash into Venezuela), but yeah looks like a weak TS to me. The fact that GFS is showing it makes me think that this isn't really a ghost system after all. Also wow, the GFS's Central American bias is really on fire, isn't it

I went in to see another CAG Cat 5 model cane hitting Texas/LA, turned out to be a 1000mb weak TS/TD. GFS let me down :cry:

#835 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:27 pm

Pretty active GFS run here and it looks realistic.

1. System off the Carolina's
2. 1st MDR developing and hitting SA
3. Something dipping into the GOM and attempting to develop
4. Second MDR wave has good amplitude by SA

kevin · #836 Postby **kevin** » Tue Jun 21, 2022 2:52 am

00z euro also has the MDR wave again.

kevin · #837 Postby **kevin** » Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:33 am

Probably the most active pre-genesis Euro ensemble I've seen so far this season.

weeniepatrol · #838 Postby **weeniepatrol** » Tue Jun 21, 2022 7:38 am

Lmao, back to back MDR development :uarrow:

#839 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jun 21, 2022 8:01 am

Models indicate at least moderate westerly wind shear across the Caribbean next week. That would make tropical development less likely. Not impossible, just not likely.

Spacecoast · #840 Postby **Spacecoast** » Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:59 am

0z ECMF ...