2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Kingarabian]

Well the Euro isn't turning the waves into landfalling GOM major hurricanes. Its playing it safe so far.

[skyline385]

Well the Euro isn't turning the waves into landfalling GOM major hurricanes. Its playing it safe so far.

Well with the Euro's recent history it wouldnt be able to do it even if it had a hurricane staring it in the face (cough Laura cough)

[skyline385]

0Z EURO & EPS pretty much the same, moving forward in time now

[cycloneye]

UKMET is also with wave.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1538467400563281922

[skyline385]

UKMET is also with wave.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1538467400563281922

CMC has it too but weakens through the MDR

[cycloneye]

EURO was more north at 00z than it was at 12z.

[skyline385]

EURO was more north at 00z than it was at 12z.

EPS does have a strong ridge building up just as the operational EURO ends so very likely imo it stays south

[NDG]

Trend by the Euro ensembles is for increased support for development over the MDR next week.

[skyline385]

It briefly shows up on the GFS (although very weak), seems like the GFS' CAG bias is killing it.

[Category5Kaiju]

It briefly shows up on the GFS (although very weak), seems like the GFS' CAG bias is killing it.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220619/a2faf5455bcbcdd72a118955934d7659.gif

Andy Hazelton was pointing that out too, how the GFS seems to not like that system as it continues to develop spurious WCAR systems, causing the MDR system to die from outflow shear

[NotSparta]

It briefly shows up on the GFS (although very weak), seems like the GFS' CAG bias is killing it.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220619/a2faf5455bcbcdd72a118955934d7659.gif

Andy Hazelton was pointing that out too, how the GFS seems to not like that system as it continues to develop spurious WCAR systems, causing the MDR system to die from outflow shear

Not sure if it's that, the wave just... dies once it comes off Africa for some reason despite decent conditions

[aspen]

It briefly shows up on the GFS (although very weak), seems like the GFS' CAG bias is killing it.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220619/a2faf5455bcbcdd72a118955934d7659.gif

Andy Hazelton was pointing that out too, how the GFS seems to not like that system as it continues to develop spurious WCAR systems, causing the MDR system to die from outflow shear

Not sure if it's that, the wave just... dies once it comes off Africa for some reason despite decent conditions

Is this wave one that has just emerged off of Africa, or will it emerge in a couple of days? I thought someone said it was probably the one currently just off of the African coast.

This system appears on the most recent CFS run too, but starts recurving just before hitting the Lesser Antilles and instead hits Bermuda and Nova Scotia. Other systems on this CFS run include:
—Multiple MDR storms in the second half of August
—Something forming over the Bahamas/off of the SEUS coast in late August
—Possibly a bit of a break in early September before more MDR activity, with a big MDR storm in mid-September

[skyline385]

ICON getting onboard too now

[Category5Kaiju]

CMC likes this upcoming system....

[aspen]

First the GFS was the only model to show development of the CAG systems, now it’s the only model to not show development of the MDR system (except for one run the other day). Not a particularly strong start this season.

[skyline385]

First the GFS was the only model to show development of the CAG systems, now it’s the only model to not show development of the MDR system (except for one run the other day). Not a particularly strong start this season.

Yea the last CAG in particular which was within 120 hours is going to affect its verification too.

[skyline385]

12Z EURO running weaker, no well defined vorticity at 180h

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1538594494643314688

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1538594494643314688

Funny he says that because the 120 EURO does seem to be moving towards the trailing wave

EDIT: weak sloppy run, trailing wave also starts to weaken

[skyline385]

Pretty bullish 12Z EPS though, especially when you compare against 0Z run