Will Alex form before June 1st?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K

Will Alex form before June 1st?

Poll ended at Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:34 pm

Yes
39
85%
No
7
15%
 
Total votes: 46

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138882
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Will Alex form before June 1st?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:34 pm

Let's kick things early with the first poll of 2022. Those who apart from voting want to discuss about this question can do so.

There will be plenty of time to vote on this poll as I will close it on March 31rst.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2022
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#2 Postby Hurricanehink » Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:20 am

I voted yes. With technology improving, the NHC is better able to assess borderline systems that might've been missed in the past. This isn't a criticism against the agency either - it's good to classify as many storms as possible. In the last decade, we had Ana in 2021, Arthur and Bertha in 2020, Andrea in 2019, Bonnie in 2016, Ana in 2015, and Alberto and Beryl in 2012 all form in the western Atlantic. That's where a (sub)tropical storm Alex would likely form, sometime in May 2022.
2 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 723
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#3 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:12 pm

Yep. I'm guessing there will be at least 1 system mid to late May.
0 likes   
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#4 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:37 pm

Yes
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2620
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#5 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:04 pm

I kind of wanted to vote "no" since I figure the trend of the first storm before June 1 has to be broken sometime, but I am seriously thinking it's going to happen again this year so I went with "yes."

Now if it IS broken this year, I may decide to start going all George Costanza and go against my instincts, but we'll see. :lol:
1 likes   
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19138
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#6 Postby tolakram » Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:29 pm

I voted yes, seems like better odds.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1912
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#7 Postby Teban54 » Thu Jan 06, 2022 1:47 am

The name Alex has always been associated with weird and anomalous storms in recent years, and they get more anomalous as time moves on:
- 1998: July MDR tropical storm
- 2004: Cat 3 in subtropics in early August, fifth latest start to a season (that went on to be hyperactive anyway)
- 2010: Cat 2 almost Cat 3 in western Gulf in June, with record-tying Cat-3-like pressure for June, arguably retirement-worthy for damage in Mexico
- 2016: Hurricane in January, enough said

Is Alex 2022 likely to form before June 1st from a meteorological standpoint? I think yes.
Do I want Alex to form before June 1st? Depends. It's hard to beat Alex 2016-level weirdness, but I still want Alex 2022 to be a unique and interesting storm, rather than a typical early season subtropical slop we've gotten used to recently. Unless it becomes a TS in March or something, I would probably prefer it to become, say, a July MDR hurricane.

Aside: This made me realize List 2 has always been used for above-average and hyperactive seasons in the current active era (only 2016 was not hyperactive). While I don't think hyperactivity is likely given the current ENSO outlooks, it does seem ominous for yet another above average season.
Also, I started tracking in 2017, and at that time this particular naming list seemed really far away to me. How time flies, and Covid certainly helped with that.
1 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#8 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:59 am

Teban54 wrote:The name Alex has always been associated with weird and anomalous storms in recent years, and they get more anomalous as time moves on:
- 1998: July MDR tropical storm
- 2004: Cat 3 in subtropics in early August, fifth latest start to a season (that went on to be hyperactive anyway)
- 2010: Cat 2 almost Cat 3 in western Gulf in June, with record-tying Cat-3-like pressure for June, arguably retirement-worthy for damage in Mexico
- 2016: Hurricane in January, enough said

Is Alex 2022 likely to form before June 1st from a meteorological standpoint? I think yes.
Do I want Alex to form before June 1st? Depends. It's hard to beat Alex 2016-level weirdness, but I still want Alex 2022 to be a unique and interesting storm, rather than a typical early season subtropical slop we've gotten used to recently. Unless it becomes a TS in March or something, I would probably prefer it to become, say, a July MDR hurricane.

Aside: This made me realize List 2 has always been used for above-average and hyperactive seasons in the current active era (only 2016 was not hyperactive). While I don't think hyperactivity is likely given the current ENSO outlooks, it does seem ominous for yet another above average season.
Also, I started tracking in 2017, and at that time this particular naming list seemed really far away to me. How time flies, and Covid certainly helped with that.


While 2010 was fortunate to be extremely active but with the US escaping unscathed, had Earl maintained its strength or strengthened several hundred miles more to the west as it recurved, I think 2010 would have been a much different story.
1 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

NorthieStangl
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 65
Age: 38
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:22 am
Location: Conyers, Georgia, United States
Contact:

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#9 Postby NorthieStangl » Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:01 pm

Alex 2010 still get on my nerves. Mexico had a very deadly and destructive season that year, with Alex, Karl, and Matthew. Unfortunately that happened during a period of 11 years that Mexico didn't send out any request of retirement - between Kenna 2002 and Ingrid/Manuel 2013. Alex should've been long gone from the list.
1 likes   
Alberto 1994 Opal 1995 Jeanne 2004 Cindy & Dennis 2005 Irma 2017 Michael 2018 Zeta 2020

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#10 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:42 pm

If the models are to be believed and actually verify this time, this poll is going to have to be prematurely closed. :D

I mean, we're talking about Alex here. Who always loves to be not normal.
5 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

Monsoonjr99
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 208
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:22 pm
Location: Inland Empire, SoCal

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#11 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 4:55 pm

Though this streak will have to end at some point, money says it will continue to its eighth year.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Some Californian who codes things and tracks weather.

Kay '22, Hilary '23

User avatar
Abdullah
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 285
Joined: Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:28 pm
Location: Miramar, FL

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#12 Postby Abdullah » Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:00 pm

I think the streak will end this year, 2022's just chill like that
2 likes   

User avatar
WiscoWx02
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 340
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:09 pm
Location: Minnesota

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#13 Postby WiscoWx02 » Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:03 pm

Given that I think it will be an El Nino year at this point and that we tend to see more subtropical activity during El Nino years, I'm voting for a hard yes. I'd say at some point in April or May we'll get Alex in the subtropics.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138882
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 27, 2022 6:24 am

Time goes by very fast and this poll is getting closer to be closed and that will be next thursday at 1:34 PM EDT so those who have not voted yet, cast your vote.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#15 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Mar 27, 2022 9:13 am

cycloneye wrote:Time goes by very fast and this poll is getting closer to be closed and that will be next thursday at 1:34 PM EDT so those who have not voted yet, cast your vote.

Forgot to vote until now :lol:

I'm #40

And yes, the La Nina will allow an early season storm to develop
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

StormPyrate
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 180
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:41 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#16 Postby StormPyrate » Sun Mar 27, 2022 11:43 am

Only because we continue to name storms long before we would have even know they existed just a few years back
0 likes   
St Petersburg Florida

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1805
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#17 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:42 am

Warm waters in the gulf , carribean and off atlantic coast and La Nina or cool neutral

I would have to vote yes
0 likes   

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#18 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue May 17, 2022 8:36 pm

Based on the models, our streak might be in jeopardy :roll:

Something subtropical could still form between now and May 31.
0 likes   

IcyTundra
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 885
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Dickinson, Texas

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#19 Postby IcyTundra » Tue May 17, 2022 8:46 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:Based on the models, our streak might be in jeopardy :roll:

Something subtropical could still form between now and May 31.


Subtropical development is always hard for models to forecast. With two weeks left in the month I still think we can get a short lived subtropical storm towards the end of the month.
0 likes   

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1038
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS

Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?

#20 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed May 18, 2022 1:01 pm

It could still happen, but it is running out of time.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Hurricaneman, Lizzytiz1, Zonacane and 58 guests