Which season most likely rivalled or exceeded 1933?

[Shell Mound]

Moderators, please make this thread into a poll with the subheading “Which season most likely matched or exceeded 1933’s ACE?” and the following options:

1780
1837
1870
1871
1878
1886
1887
1893
1926

Resources: A, B, C, D

[Yellow Evan]

1780 based on the early and late season MDR activity that we know had occurred.

[cycloneye]

Made this question as a poll that will be open for voting until January 18.

[Shell Mound]

Case-by-case analysis, based on the sources linked below and in the OP:

1780: featured a deadly hurricane that affected St. Lucia, southern Puerto Rico, the Mona Passage, and easternmost Hispaniola in June (!), a strong hurricane that affected the Mississippi River Delta in August, a CV-type major hurricane in the MDR in October that struck the Lesser Antilles, and two major hurricanes in the western Caribbean in October
1837: generated at least eleven—possibly seventeen or more—tropical cyclones, including at least six hurricanes, at least four of which were probably majors (Storms #8, “Calypso,” and #15, “Racer’s,” were likely majors at some point), according to information gleaned from multiple studies; season was very similar to 1964 and 2004 in Florida
1870: per preliminary reanalysis, adjusted for observational deficiencies, likely featured at least six or seven hurricanes in the MDR, including at least two or three majors; generated a 140-kt Cat-5 near western Cuba and a 100-kt Cat-3 over and near South Florida, both of which occurred in October and formed over the western Caribbean Sea
1871: featured (M)H numbers in the MDR similar to those of the preceding year, reanalysis having uncovered at least four MH basin-wide; two hurricanes struck South-Central FL about a week apart, at least one of which was a major at landfall, the other likely having been a MH then as well; one MH was assessed as a Cat-4 over the open Atlantic
1878: coincided with a strong +AMM and very low vertical wind shear; was probably as active in the MDR as 1870–1, having featured four confirmed hurricanes there; yielded a 130-kt Cat-4 in the MDR in mid to late October (!)
1886: was like a much more severe version of 2008, heavily west-based and Gulf-centred but with several CV systems
1887: featured no fewer than 24 NS, including four confirmed MH, along with significant clustering of activity in the MDR and Caribbean
1893: featured no fewer than six hurricanes in the MDR, if not more, including Cat-3s that were likely Cat-4+ over the open Atlantic
1926: prolific season that combined very high ACE in the MDR and Caribbean with significant landfalls, including a rare Cat-4 in the Bahamas in July

Note: Data suggest that 1933 likely featured ~22–23 or more NS, 14 hurricanes, and eight majors, along with an ACE of well > 259.

In my view, the most likely candidates to have surpassed 1933 in terms of ACE are 1780, 1837, 1878, 1887, and 1893. In terms of (M)H activity in the MDR, 1780, 1878, and 1893 stand out for featuring intense activity well into October. (1871, incidentally, featured a storm that developed in the MDR and became a Cat-4 MH while north of the MDR in October.) 1837, on the other hand, was quite active on balance: the season having spawned a Cat-4 that hit Puerto Rico during the first week of August. 1887’s (M)H activity in the MDR was comparable to that of 1870–1 and 1893, but the season itself was more active than those years as well. So the top three candidates are probably 1780, 1837, and 1887, though 1878, 1893, and 1926 follow closely behind. (1926 occurred during a period with extensive wireless networks at sea and so is probably better documented than earlier years.) On balance, I would probably choose 1780 as the leading candidate.

[Ptarmigan]

I always thought 1780 was very active. It is also very deadly season. 1870, 1871, and 1878 were La Nina years. 1878 came off of a strong El Nino like in 1998 and 2016. I always thought 1893 was just as active.

[Shell Mound]

For reference, here are the reanalysed data for several of the seasons, derived from this and plotted by TheAustinMan:









Data for 1780 and 1837 can be found here and here.