2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#21 Postby FireRat » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:08 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
FireRat wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:For purposes of comparison, here are FireRat’s previous “outlooks” for the seasons of 2020 and 2021, respectively:

2020 Oddball Outlook (“issued” 24 April 2020): 19 NS / 9 H / 6 MH; ACE 175–225.........

On another note, one can even see some non-meteorological correlations between past Years of the Tiger and 2022! Regarding international events in Years of the Tiger since 1851...........
It is really cool to look back on the past 2 years and see how things played out! Who knows what we're going to look back on when looking at 2022 in hindsight!

2020 was absolutely nuts, and 2021 was fairly close to the "outlook" that was posted, perhaps I've been kinda lucky with the overall predictions so far hehe.

Actually, some of your “predictions” for 2020 relied on some very unlikely occurrences, yet still ended up verifying. For example, you “forecast” a very active October/November in the general region of the Caribbean Sea, including the possibility of up to three majors and impacts that would rival September’s. This outlook was very bold, yet transpired. I looked at historical data going back to 1900 (earlier coverage is sparser and thus less reliable) and examined previous occurrences of upper-tier (Category-4+) major-hurricane impacts in the Caribbean region and, having compiled the resultant data, calculated the following statistics:

Since 1900, 22 Category-4+ systems in the Caribbean Sea during Oct/Nov
# systems/YYYY: 1/1921…1/1924…1/1926…2/1932…1/1944…1/1952…1/1961…1/1963…1/1966…1/1988…1/1998…1/1999…1/2000…2/2001…1/2005…1/2008…1/2016…3/2020
# years b/w YYYY: 3…2…6…12…8…9…2…3…22…10…1…1…1…4…3…8…4…?
# of years sampled: 18
Average # systems/year: 15 + 7 = 22/18 = ~1.22
Average gap b/w year(s): 99/17 = ~5.824
Long-term mean: ~1.22 systems / ~5.824 years (~1 system / ~6 years) X x systems / 1 year = ~0.21 systems / year

So based on a random sample, given the results above (~0.21 Cat-4+ Caribbean MH during a random Oct/Nov period), one would not have expected the possibility of multiple Cat-4+ in the Caribbean during October/November in a single season. Yet you highlighted the possibility in 2020, having selected the year 1780 (with its deadly Cat-3+ triplets in the Caribbean during Oct/Nov, at least two of which were likely Cat-4+) as an analog, and your “forecast” verified! :eek: As one can see above, 2020 set a one-year record for Cat-4+ impacts in the Caribbean during Oct/Nov, at least since relatively reliable records became available in 1900.

On another note, regarding 2022, while looking back at the Chinese Zodiac and the five elements I noticed something. As is known, the Chinese astrological system relies on polarities between opposing parties, including active/dominant and inactive/passive elements. For example, Years of the Tiger are typically paired with their opposite, Years of the Monkey. Also, according to the Chinese astrological system, the active/passive elements are as following: Metal/Wood, Water/Fire, Wood/Earth, Fire/Metal, and Earth/Water. So a Water Tiger is in a dominant position relative to its partner, the Fire Monkey. The three most recent of such pairings:

Water Tiger/Fire Monkey: 1) 1902/1872, 2) 1962/1932, 3) 2022/1992

1) a) 1902/1872 and b) 1962/1932 are converses in terms of track/clustering (steering):

a):
https://i.ibb.co/d0LvdyZ/1902-H5.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/72/1902_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-1902_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png
https://i.ibb.co/qxSzL3S/1872-H5.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/84/1872_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-1872_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

b):
https://i.ibb.co/n6b9Zr5/1962-H5.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d2/1962_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-1962_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png
https://i.ibb.co/sJW9CTb/1932-H5.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/46/1932_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-1932_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

2) 1962 is the inverse of 1902 in terms of track/clustering (steering):

https://i.ibb.co/n6b9Zr5/1962-H5.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d2/1962_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-1962_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png
https://i.ibb.co/d0LvdyZ/1902-H5.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/72/1902_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-1902_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

2022: inverse of 1962, converse of 1992?

https://i.ibb.co/GCQwRbJ/1992-H5.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/34/1992_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-1992_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png
????
????

Some takeaway notes from the above:

  • Years of the Tiger such as 1866 and 1926 were, along with (take note!) the Fire Monkey 1932, among the worst on record in the Bahamas, particularly in and near the capital Nassau.
  • According to Wayne Neely’s The Greatest and Deadliest Hurricanes to Impact the Bahamas (Cheyenne, WI: URLink, 2019, pp. 461–3), the Cape Verde-type “Great Nassau” hurricane of 1866 killed 387 people in the Bahamas and passed directly over Nassau as a 120-kt/938-mb Cat-4 in October, devastating the sponge-based local economy. In 1926 the unusual Cat-4 “Nassau” hurricane (120 kt) in July and the devastating “Great Miami” hurricane (130 kt) in September killed up to 268 and 123 individuals in the Bahamas, respectively, and in 1932 the “Great Abaco” hurricane, the worst to hit the Abaco Islands until 160-kt, Cat-5 Dorian (2019), passed over the same settlements that Dorian impacted with an intensity of 140 kt/≤ 921 mb, killing 18 people there.
  • If 2022 were to be the inverse of 1962 and the converse of 1992, it may end up being far more eventful than the former but be a “modified” version of the latter. Like the Fire Monkey 1992 but also in common with Tigers such as 1926 and 1950, maybe 2022 ends up being a year that is measured more in terms of quality/impact > quantity, and delivers a big impact to peninsular Florida and/or the Keys, as past “climatology” for the Tigers suggests. But instead of a small-sized Andrew tracking westward, maybe 2022 features a similarly intense but much larger system tracking north-northwestward across South Florida and Lake Okeechobee, following the various solutions for Irma that were feared but didn’t materialise, while paralleling Cat-4 King’s trajectory (1950) and hitting Miami hard (as in 1926).
  • Since 2016 virtually every region of the Bahamas has been hit hard except the capital (Nassau). During the same timeframe much of the CONUS has been hammered except Greater Miami (Southeast Florida). Will 2022 feature a powerful, large Cat-4+ that devastates Nassau en route to Miami before tracking NNW across Lake Okeechobee, like a more northerly version of Irma, being a blend of Andrew (intensity), 1926 Miami/Irma (large size), and 1950’s King (track across Miami/Lake Okeechobee)?
Interestingly, Years of the Snake cross Years of the Tiger at a 45° angle, and a Fire Snake, 1929, produced the devastating “Great Andros/Nassau” hurricane (135 kt/924 mb) in the Bahamas. That hurricane later struck the Florida Keys as a 100-kt Cat-3. Notice a pattern? “Fiery” years really tend to devastate the Bahamas, especially the capital Nassau, and in several cases (like 1926 and 1929) actually overlap with years that produced big impacts on peninsular Florida and/or the Keys, including Years of the Tiger. Could 2022 produce a storm that is much larger than the 1929 hurricane but is similar to Andrew in intensity and follows a 1929-type track, stalling over the central Bahamas near Nassau and even heading south of due west (Dorian and the 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane also stalled and drifted over/near the Bahamas, like the 1929 hurricane), before turning back to the NW and NNW and striking Miami head-on as a high-end major?

Another fact: the Tiger years very often featured individual storms that either a) hit both peninsular Florida and locations farther north (as did Storm #5 in 1878) or b) separately struck peninsular Florida and/or the Keys and the East Coast (like Bonnie and Georges in 1998, as well as Storms #5 and #11 in 1878). Could 2022’s “big one,” another storm, or both impact locations farther north along the East Coast as well as the Bahamas and South Florida? Could the possible “big one” that I highlighted above also parallel the east coast of Florida from Okeechobee to Orlando and Jacksonville before continuing northward past Savannah, Charleston, and Norfolk en route to the Mid-Atlantic and/or New England, somewhat like Donna (1960) in part, or the modelled “doomsday” solutions for Irma? Such an outcome would blend the Tigers 1878, 1926, 1938, 1950, and/or 1998 all together, with some input from 1866, 1929, 1962, and 1992, possibly.


:uarrow:
Thanks again for the review above Shellmound!
2020 was indeed a crazy year to begin making these threads lol, that late-season was insane. :eek:
That's the Year of the Rat for ya, big on October-November storms!

One slight correction to your years above, the years 1932/1992 were Water Monkey and 1929 was Earth Snake (like 1989). There's a good rule of thumb to know which element year we're in...
By looking at the last digit of the year, if the year ends in 0,1 it is Metal/ ends in 2,3 it is Water/ ends in 4,5 it is Wood/ ends in 6,7 it is Fire/ and ends in 8,9 it is Earth.

2022 and 1992 would still be opposing poles because of the Tiger VS Monkey, but of the same Water element.
Interesting how Tiger & Monkey years share the infamous List 2 of Hurricane names too.

I really have a personal hunch that 2022 could try to be like a busy version of 1992, as far as NS/H/MH ratio and potential high impact storm goes... like if 1992's numbers were X3 or even X4. Hurricane Andrew itself also fits a Tiger-year-like track too. So yeah man, maybe 2022 could be a 'converse' of 1992, where we see an Andrew-like storm or two 30 years after Andrew himself.

Then again, there's that small chance that 2022 completely busts our speculations and pulls a 1962 instead :lol:
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Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22

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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#22 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Mar 30, 2022 7:26 am

FireRat wrote:One slight correction to your years above, the years 1932/1992 were Water Monkey and 1929 was Earth Snake (like 1989). There's a good rule of thumb to know which element year we're in...
By looking at the last digit of the year, if the year ends in 0,1 it is Metal/ ends in 2,3 it is Water/ ends in 4,5 it is Wood/ ends in 6,7 it is Fire/ and ends in 8,9 it is Earth.

2022 and 1992 would still be opposing poles because of the Tiger VS Monkey, but of the same Water element.
Interesting how Tiger & Monkey years share the infamous List 2 of Hurricane names too.

I really have a personal hunch that 2022 could try to be like a busy version of 1992, as far as NS/H/MH ratio and potential high impact storm goes... like if 1992's numbers were X3 or even X4. Hurricane Andrew itself also fits a Tiger-year-like track too. So yeah man, maybe 2022 could be a 'converse' of 1992, where we see an Andrew-like storm or two 30 years after Andrew himself.

Thank you for your input as well. I have since corrected some of the corresponding points in my post.

Here are some additional interesting data, incorporating results from this preliminary reanalysis as well as the official records:

Since 1851:
N (frequency of ≥1 MH hit on peninsular FL and/or Keys for subset X, years for each category) = 27
1865, 1870, 1871, 1880, 1888, 1894, 1896, 1906, 1909, 1919, 1921, 1926, 1928, 1929, 1933, 1935, 1945, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950, 1960, 1965, 1992, 2004, 2005, 2017

………….METAL…WATER…WOOD…FIRE…EARTH…TOTAL
Tiger…….2…………0……….0…………1………0……….3
Rabbit…...0…………0……….0…………0………0……….0
Dragon…..1…………0……….0…………0………1……….2
Snake……0…………0……….1…………0………1……….2
Horse……1…………0……….1…………1………0……….3
Sheep……1…………0……….0…………0………1……….2
Monkey…0…………1……….2…………1………0……….4
Rooster….1…………2……….2…………1………1……….7
Dog……...0…………0……….0…………0………0……….0
Boar……..0…………0……….1…………1………0……….2
Rat………1…………0……….0…………0………2……….3
Ox……….0………....0……….1…………0………1……….2
ALL……..7………....3……….8…………5………7……….30

List II (of names): 1980, 1986, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2010, 2016, 2022

Red = H impact on peninsular FL and/or Keys (bold red = MH impact)

Some notes on the above:
  • The “Water” subset featured fewer MH landfalls on peninsular FL and/or the Keys than the others. However, one of the three known hits to have occurred during a “Water” year was 1992’s Andrew, one of the two known Cat-5 impacts on the region (the other being the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, which occurred during a Year of the Wood Boar). The other two “Water” hits occurred during the Water Roosters 1873 and 1933.
  • Only Years of the Dog (no MH hits) and of the Rooster (seven MH hits) deviated considerably from the mean of 2.5 MH hits per Zodiac sign. So relative to all but these two exceptions, Years of the Tiger have roughly the same probability of featuring one or more MH impacts on peninsular FL and/or the Keys.
Regarding the season of 1962, I should point out that it, like 2013, featured a sharp decrease in its springtime AMO index, leading to a persistent TUTT over the deep tropics during the peak months, despite sharing a coolish neutral ENSO state with 2013. Basically, 1962 and 2013 ended up as well-below-average seasons due to an unexpected reversal of the springtime AMOC and a corresponding weakening of the THC. So long as 2022 avoids a similar process, it may well prove to be above-average or even near-hyperactive season, if the Years of the Tiger are anything to go by.

Also, for newcomers, a “cheat sheet” showing all the years since the first of the eighteenth century:

Wood Tiger: 1734, 1794, 1854, 1914, 1974
Wood Rabbit: 1735, 1795, 1855, 1915, 1975
Fire Dragon: 1736, 1796, 1856, 1916, 1976
Fire Snake: 1737, 1797, 1857, 1917, 1977
Earth Horse: 1738, 1798, 1858, 1918, 1978
Earth Sheep: 1739, 1799, 1859, 1919, 1979
Metal Monkey: 1740, 1800, 1860, 1920, 1980
Metal Rooster: 1741, 1801, 1861, 1921, 1981
Water Dog: 1742, 1802, 1862, 1922, 1982
Water Boar: 1743, 1803, 1863, 1923, 1983
Wood Rat: 1744, 1804, 1864, 1924, 1984
Wood Ox: 1745, 1805, 1865, 1925, 1985
Fire Tiger: 1746, 1806, 1866, 1926, 1986
Fire Rabbit: 1747, 1807, 1867, 1927, 1987
Earth Dragon: 1748, 1808, 1868, 1928, 1988
Earth Snake: 1749, 1809, 1869, 1929, 1989
Metal Horse: 1750, 1810, 1870, 1930, 1990
Metal Sheep: 1751, 1811, 1871, 1931, 1991
Water Monkey: 1752, 1812, 1872, 1932, 1992
Water Rooster: 1753, 1813, 1873, 1933, 1993
Wood Dog: 1754, 1814, 1874, 1934, 1994
Wood Boar: 1755, 1815, 1875, 1935, 1995
Fire Rat: 1756, 1816, 1876, 1936, 1996
Fire Ox: 1757, 1817, 1877, 1937, 1997
Earth Tiger: 1758, 1818, 1878, 1938, 1998
Earth Rabbit: 1759, 1819, 1879, 1939, 1999
Metal Dragon: 1760, 1820, 1880, 1940, 2000
Metal Snake: 1761, 1821, 1881, 1941, 2001
Water Horse: 1762, 1822, 1882, 1942, 2002
Water Sheep: 1763, 1823, 1883, 1943, 2003
Wood Monkey: 1764, 1824, 1884, 1944, 2004
Wood Rooster: 1765, 1825, 1885, 1945, 2005
Fire Dog: 1766, 1826, 1886, 1946, 2006
Fire Boar: 1767, 1827, 1887, 1947, 2007
Earth Rat: 1768, 1828, 1888, 1948, 2008
Earth Ox: 1769, 1829, 1889, 1949, 2009
Metal Tiger: 1770, 1830, 1890, 1950, 2010
Metal Rabbit: 1771, 1831, 1891, 1951, 2011
Water Dragon: 1772, 1832, 1892, 1952, 2012
Water Snake: 1773, 1833, 1893, 1953, 2013
Wood Horse: 1774, 1834, 1894, 1954, 2014
Wood Sheep: 1775, 1835, 1895, 1955, 2015
Fire Monkey: 1776, 1836, 1896, 1956, 2016
Fire Rooster: 1777, 1837, 1897, 1957, 2017
Earth Dog: 1778, 1838, 1898, 1958, 2018
Earth Boar: 1779, 1839, 1899, 1959, 2019
Metal Rat: 1780, 1840, 1900, 1960, 2020
Metal Ox: 1781, 1841, 1901, 1961, 2021
Water Tiger: 1782, 1842, 1902, 1962, 2022
Water Rabbit: 1783, 1843, 1903, 1963, 2023
Wood Dragon: 1784, 1844, 1904, 1964, 2024
Wood Snake: 1785, 1845, 1905, 1965, 2025
Fire Horse: 1786, 1846, 1906, 1966, 2026
Fire Sheep: 1787, 1847, 1907, 1967, 2027
Earth Monkey: 1788, 1848, 1908, 1968, 2028
Earth Rooster: 1789, 1849, 1909, 1969, 2029
Metal Dog: 1790, 1850, 1910, 1970, 2030
Metal Boar: 1791, 1851, 1911, 1971, 2031
Water Rat: 1792, 1852, 1912, 1972, 2032
Water Ox: 1793, 1853, 1913, 1973, 2033
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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#23 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Apr 02, 2022 12:31 pm

(Please note that the following is most emphatically not a forecast and is just presented for the sake of a fun discussion. :wink: )

I actually made the following “hypothetical” scenario for the upcoming 2022 season, based on the information presented/analysed in this thread:

Image

Big ones: Earl, Ian, and Martin

TS ALEX, late Jun (MSW [kt]: 55): early-season tropical storm, forms near western Cuba, tracks NNE near the Keys, strengthens over the Gulf Stream, makes landfall on the Outer Banks, and then curves out to sea off Newfoundland.
*Landfall near Cape Hatteras, NC (50)

TS BONNIE, early Jul (40): forms over the Gulf north of the Yucatán, tracks generally N toward the Florida Panhandle, then curves inland and dissipates.
*Landfall near Carrabelle, FL (40)

TS COLIN, late Jul (40): develops from a tropical wave off the Dominican Republic, passes through the Turks and Caicos Islands, and then dissipates SE of Bermuda while executing a long, clockwise loop.
*Landfall on North Caicos, TCI (35)

TS DANIELLE, early Aug (50): forms from an easterly wave east of the Lesser Antilles, briefly peaks, then opens up into a surface trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea after passing between Martinique and Dominica; does not make landfall.

MH EARL, mid Aug (120): first “big” hurricane of the season, develops as a “homegrown” TC in the Gulf, then rapidly strengthens into a major hurricane as it heads WSW, peaking prior to and during landfall on the Mexican mainland as a solid Cat-4.
*Landfall near La Presita, Tamaulipas, MX (120)

TS FIONA, mid Aug (35): short-lived system, forms over the Yucatán Channel, then strikes the Yucatán and dissipates quickly afterward.
*Landfall near Cancún, Quintana Roo, MX (35)

TS GASTON, late Aug (55): forms in the wake of FIONA, tracks NNE into the Florida Panhandle, then turns eastward over GA and SC before dissipating just offshore, over the western Atlantic.
*Landfall near Seacrest, FL (55)

H HERMINE, late Aug (90): forms from a decaying front and rapidly organises as a small system, curving into Florida’s Big Bend as a deepening hurricane, then paralleling the East Coast while tracking over GA and the Carolinas, making a second landfall on the Canadian Maritimes while still a hurricane.
*Landfall between Suwannee and Cedar Key, FL (90)
*Landfall near Chebogue Point, Nova Scotia, CAN (75)

MH IAN, early Sept (155): a “big one” of the year, a classic, long-lived CV-type hurricane, eventually stalls over and near the central Bahamas before curving NW into Florida, eventually tracking up the East Coast like Donna (1960) and some other infamous storms; similar to Irma in size/intensity.
*Landfall on Eleuthera, BH (130)
*Landfall on Nassau, New Providence, BH (145)
*Landfall on Andros, BH (150)
*Landfall on Miami, FL (155)
*Landfall near Edisto Beach, SC (90)
*Landfall near Brookhaven, Long Island, NY (75)

H JULIA, early Sept (75): forms over the Sargasso Sea, hits Bermuda as a TS, then peaks as a hurricane while curving out to sea.

TS KARL, mid Sept (40): short-lived TS, forms west of the CV islands, then curves E and dissipates.

H LISA, mid Sept (75): similar to 2004’s Lisa, a CV-type system that heads N over the subtropical eastern North Atlantic, becoming a hurricane at high latitudes.

MH MARTIN, late Sept (135): another “big one” of the year, a compact but very intense hurricane that is like a blend of the 1930 San Zenón hurricane and 1998’s Georges, tracks through the Leewards en route to southwestern Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola; does not survive the mountainous terrain.
*Landfall on Antigua (110)
*Landfall on St. Kitts (115)
*Landfall on Isla Cueva, Lajas, Puerto Rico (125)
*Landfall south of Boca de Yuma, DR (135)
*Landfall near La Romana, DR (125)

TS NICOLE, late Sept (55): a typical BoC system, meanders about west of the Yucatán before curving southward and inland.
*Landfall near Isla Aguada, Campeche, MX (50)

MH OWEN, early Oct (120): forms over the Windward Passage, but does not become a hurricane until beyond the Bahamas, fortunately peaking at sea and becoming extratropical before bypassing eastern Canada; vaguely similar to 2015’s Joaquín.
Landfall on Mayaguana, BH (45)
Landfall on Eleuthera, BH (60)

MH PAULA, early Oct (105): somewhat “fishy,” late-season, CV-type major, passes through the Azores as a hurricane, but does not make landfall on any individual island.

TS RICHARD, mid Oct (55): long-lived CV-type system, forms unusually far southeast for mid October, but does not impact any landmass.

TS SHARY, late Oct (80): another unusually late CV-type system, does not become a hurricane until well into the subtropics; also remains out at sea.

TS TOBIAS, mid Nov (60): forms and curves out to sea well to the south and east of Bermuda.
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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#24 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Apr 05, 2022 9:43 am

^ Concerning the above, it is interesting to note that the latest long-range ECMWF is indicating:

  • A hyperactive season with an ACE of ~175 (~30% above the +AMO-era seasonal mean of ~135);
  • an Atlantic/Pacific Niña (cool Gulf of Guinea + Niño 1/2) juxtaposed with a strong West African monsoon (WAM);
  • along with the above, a robust -PDO/-IOD enhancing lift over the Atlantic vs. other basins;
  • most disconcertingly, a 500-mb setup during ASO that correlates strongly with the historical composite for major hurricane impacts on peninsular FL :eek:
So far, key seasonal “indicators” such as that by wxman57 (highlighted previously) and now the normally conservative EC model seem to be aligning with the most bullish of the “Tiger” years, in terms of overall activity and potential steering. Taken verbatim, the EC solution in particular would definitely be in line with a “hyperactive” version of 1992, along with the “Tiger” years 1878, 1926, 1950, and/or 1998. The meridional, expansive “ridge-bridge,” with a +NAO and -PDO promoting strong blocking over eastern North America, might also hint at a storm like the 1929 Bahamas hurricane, which stalled over the Bahamas before striking South FL and/or the Keys.

These images are certainly telling:

Image
Image

The image at bottom is a composite of the H5 patterns in place during the landfalls of Storm #5 (1878), the “Great Miami” hurricane (1926), the 1929 Bahamas–Keys hurricane, Hurricane King (1950), Hurricane Andrew (1992), and Hurricane Georges (1998). The match between the composite and the EC outlook for ASO of 2022 is rather striking indeed! :double: The “Tiger/[Water-] Monkey” blend, with some influence exerted by the (Earth) Snake, certainly seems to be evinced in some of the key forecasts issued to date!

On another note, all this may well fit in with indications that 2023 may feature a robust El Niño following our soon-to-be third-year Niña. 2023 is a Water Rabbit, and Years of the Rabbit in general tend to be among the quietest subsets, at least insofar as major impacts on peninsular FL are concerned. Interestingly, there have been a number of very eventful “Rabbit” years, including 1903 (Jamaica, Florida, and Vagabond/New Jersey hurricanes), 1915 (Galveston II/New Orleans hurricanes), 1951 (Hurricane Charlie), 1963 (Hurricane Flora), 1999 (Hurricanes Bret, Floyd, Irene, and Lenny), and 2011 (Hurricane Irene). So even if 2023 features a robust +ENSO, it could well exceed expectations relative to those of other years that ended up with El Niño.
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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#25 Postby FireRat » Wed Apr 06, 2022 3:22 pm

Shell Mound wrote:^ Concerning the above, it is interesting to note that the latest long-range ECMWF is indicating:

  • A hyperactive season with an ACE of ~175 (~30% above the +AMO-era seasonal mean of ~135);
  • an Atlantic/Pacific Niña (cool Gulf of Guinea + Niño 1/2) juxtaposed with a strong West African monsoon (WAM);
  • along with the above, a robust -PDO/-IOD enhancing lift over the Atlantic vs. other basins;
  • most disconcertingly, a 500-mb setup during ASO that correlates strongly with the historical composite for major hurricane impacts on peninsular FL :eek:
So far, key seasonal “indicators” such as that by wxman57 (highlighted previously) and now the normally conservative EC model seem to be aligning with the most bullish of the “Tiger” years, in terms of overall activity and potential steering. Taken verbatim, the EC solution in particular would definitely be in line with a “hyperactive” version of 1992, along with the “Tiger” years 1878, 1926, 1950, and/or 1998. The meridional, expansive “ridge-bridge,” with a +NAO and -PDO promoting strong blocking over eastern North America, might also hint at a storm like the 1929 Bahamas hurricane, which stalled over the Bahamas before striking South FL and/or the Keys.

These images are certainly telling:

https://i.ibb.co/mvm6MbW/Ska-rmavbild-2022-04-05-kl-15-43-57.png
https://i.ibb.co/P4XY3q7/Ska-rmavbild-2022-04-05-kl-16-30-27.png

The image at bottom is a composite of the H5 patterns in place during the landfalls of Storm #5 (1878), the “Great Miami” hurricane (1926), the 1929 Bahamas–Keys hurricane, Hurricane King (1950), Hurricane Andrew (1992), and Hurricane Georges (1998). The match between the composite and the EC outlook for ASO of 2022 is rather striking indeed! :double: The “Tiger/[Water-] Monkey” blend, with some influence exerted by the (Earth) Snake, certainly seems to be evinced in some of the key forecasts issued to date!

On another note, all this may well fit in with indications that 2023 may feature a robust El Niño following our soon-to-be third-year Niña. 2023 is a Water Rabbit, and Years of the Rabbit in general tend to be among the quietest subsets, at least insofar as major impacts on peninsular FL are concerned. Interestingly, there have been a number of very eventful “Rabbit” years, including 1903 (Jamaica, Florida, and Vagabond/New Jersey hurricanes), 1915 (Galveston II/New Orleans hurricanes), 1951 (Hurricane Charlie), 1963 (Hurricane Flora), 1999 (Hurricanes Bret, Floyd, Irene, and Lenny), and 2011 (Hurricane Irene). So even if 2023 features a robust +ENSO, it could well exceed expectations relative to those of other years that ended up with El Niño.


Thanks again Shell, I really appreciate your input in this thread, awesome graphics btw, including your hypothetical map based on the Tiger years! That would be a crushing blow for the islands, northern Mx and Florida, ouch. That's a good hypothetical map for this season based on this fun 12yr zodiac stuff.
Thanks also for the "cheat sheet" you made a few posts back, it is really useful for looking at the years quickly!

When it comes to the season's names on another note, I also have a feeling about those names Ian and Martin come the peak season! l'd also would watch Shary or Tobias for the late season if they were to mirror 1998 Mitch or 1950 King.

2023 could be interesting as well in its own way, like you pointed out, Rabbit years have been good for Florida but not for the Caribbean and Gulf. 2023 might be a quality vs quantity type of season, with a 1963 Flora type situation in the worse case. It would be likelier to be a below-average or average season based on this cycle too, on a more positive note.

A little further down the road, I would speculate that the whole state, as well as Cuba and the Bahamas, could be hit on multiple occasions during 2024 - 2026. Wood Dragon, Wood Snake & Fire Horse years have been eventful ones in the past for this part of the world.
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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#26 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Apr 07, 2022 11:37 am

FireRat wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:^ Concerning the above, it is interesting to note that the latest long-range ECMWF is indicating:

  • A hyperactive season with an ACE of ~175 (~30% above the +AMO-era seasonal mean of ~135);
  • an Atlantic/Pacific Niña (cool Gulf of Guinea + Niño 1/2) juxtaposed with a strong West African monsoon (WAM);
  • along with the above, a robust -PDO/-IOD enhancing lift over the Atlantic vs. other basins;
  • most disconcertingly, a 500-mb setup during ASO that correlates strongly with the historical composite for major hurricane impacts on peninsular FL :eek:
So far, key seasonal “indicators” such as that by wxman57 (highlighted previously) and now the normally conservative EC model seem to be aligning with the most bullish of the “Tiger” years, in terms of overall activity and potential steering. Taken verbatim, the EC solution in particular would definitely be in line with a “hyperactive” version of 1992, along with the “Tiger” years 1878, 1926, 1950, and/or 1998. The meridional, expansive “ridge-bridge,” with a +NAO and -PDO promoting strong blocking over eastern North America, might also hint at a storm like the 1929 Bahamas hurricane, which stalled over the Bahamas before striking South FL and/or the Keys.

These images are certainly telling:

https://i.ibb.co/mvm6MbW/Ska-rmavbild-2022-04-05-kl-15-43-57.png
https://i.ibb.co/P4XY3q7/Ska-rmavbild-2022-04-05-kl-16-30-27.png

The image at bottom is a composite of the H5 patterns in place during the landfalls of Storm #5 (1878), the “Great Miami” hurricane (1926), the 1929 Bahamas–Keys hurricane, Hurricane King (1950), Hurricane Andrew (1992), and Hurricane Georges (1998). The match between the composite and the EC outlook for ASO of 2022 is rather striking indeed! :double: The “Tiger/[Water-] Monkey” blend, with some influence exerted by the (Earth) Snake, certainly seems to be evinced in some of the key forecasts issued to date!

On another note, all this may well fit in with indications that 2023 may feature a robust El Niño following our soon-to-be third-year Niña. 2023 is a Water Rabbit, and Years of the Rabbit in general tend to be among the quietest subsets, at least insofar as major impacts on peninsular FL are concerned. Interestingly, there have been a number of very eventful “Rabbit” years, including 1903 (Jamaica, Florida, and Vagabond/New Jersey hurricanes), 1915 (Galveston II/New Orleans hurricanes), 1951 (Hurricane Charlie), 1963 (Hurricane Flora), 1999 (Hurricanes Bret, Floyd, Irene, and Lenny), and 2011 (Hurricane Irene). So even if 2023 features a robust +ENSO, it could well exceed expectations relative to those of other years that ended up with El Niño.

Thanks again Shell, I really appreciate your input in this thread, awesome graphics btw, including your hypothetical map based on the Tiger years! That would be a crushing blow for the islands, northern Mx and Florida, ouch. That's a good hypothetical map for this season based on this fun 12yr zodiac stuff.
Thanks also for the "cheat sheet" you made a few posts back, it is really useful for looking at the years quickly!

When it comes to the season's names on another note, I also have a feeling about those names Ian and Martin come the peak season! l'd also would watch Shary or Tobias for the late season if they were to mirror 1998 Mitch or 1950 King.

2023 could be interesting as well in its own way, like you pointed out, Rabbit years have been good for Florida but not for the Caribbean and Gulf. 2023 might be a quality vs quantity type of season, with a 1963 Flora type situation in the worse case. It would be likelier to be a below-average or average season based on this cycle too, on a more positive note.

A little further down the road, I would speculate that the whole state, as well as Cuba and the Bahamas, could be hit on multiple occasions during 2024 - 2026. Wood Dragon, Wood Snake & Fire Horse years have been eventful ones in the past for this part of the world.

On another note, it is interesting that CSU’s latest forecast officially calls for a hyperactive season with an ACE of 160 (the threshold for hyperactivity is > 159.6 units). This is in line with the hyperactive April ECMWF forecast and in fact shares very similar numbers (19/9/4) with wxman57’s outlook (19/8/4). Overall, the numbers are very similar to those of your outlook (20/9/4) and of my preliminary outlook in the S2K poll (19/9/5; in fact CSU’s ACE is the same as mine!). CSU’s analogs are 1996, 2000, 2001, 2008, 2012, and 2021, with its expected ACE falling toward the upper end of these analogs’ range. The April NMME also suggests a potentially hyperactive season, given the busy MDR and +AMM being modelled.

This fits with the notion of 2022 being a busy standout among “Water-Tiger” years, like 1842 and several of the busier “Tiger” years that have been mentioned in this thread, and also may reflect the possibility of 2022 being a busier “converse” of the “Water Monkey” 1992. Interestingly, the strongest indicators to date for seasonal ACE (see pp. 9–10 of CSU’s report), SST anomalies in the Caribbean and subtropical eastern Atlantic, favour a busy MDR (high seasonal ACE) during 2022. Several of CSU’s analogs also featured one or more long-tracked, intense, CV-type hurricanes in the MDR (Edouard and Isidore ‘96; Alberto ‘00; Bertha ‘08; and Larry and Sam ‘21) or just outside (Ike ‘08). The pattern definitely applies to “Tiger” years such as 1878, 1926, 1950, and/or 1998 as well, and obviously 1992’s Andrew was a CV-type system that became an intense hurricane in the subtropics before turning toward the Bahamas and FL.

2022 may well combine hyperactivity with at least one long-lived, powerful, CV-type hurricane that impacts the Bahamas and/or peninsular Florida (or the Keys). There could be multiple long-lived systems in the MDR that impact different parts of the Caribbean and/or Southeastern U.S., like the hypothetical Ian/Martin that I outlined. The following tweet truly illustrates how just about every region of the CONUS and Caribbean has been impacted since 2017, with the exceptions of eastern peninsular Florida (especially Greater Miami) and the Big Bend/Nature Coast of Florida, suggesting that the latter regions may well be impacted in 2022 and/or one of the upcoming seasons, perhaps those that follow 2023:

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1512088412655915008




Cat-2+ landfalls on the CONUS in 1996, 2000, 2008 + 1878, 1926, 1950, 1998 + 1929, 1992:

Image

Interestingly, Bertha/Fran ‘96 and Gustav ‘08 + 1929 Bahamas and Andrew ‘92 closely match the clusters associated with the “Tigers” 1878, 1926, 1950, and 1998:

  • Hispaniola;
  • Cuba, especially its eastern and western ends;
  • Central Bahamas (in and around Nassau, New Providence);
  • Greater Miami and/or the Florida Keys;
  • The Cape Fear region of NC eastward to Carteret County;
  • Between Houma and Atchafalaya Bay, LA
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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#27 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Apr 08, 2022 10:53 am

:uarrow: In regard to the above, I was also pondering how 2022 might be an “inverse” of 1962 and a “converse” of 1992. 1902, as mentioned, was an “inverse” of 1962. 1902 featured two tropical cyclones that tracked generally northward and north-northeastward toward the northeastern Gulf Coast, one of which impacted Florida’s Big Bend/Nature Coast, near Cedar Key. 1992’s significant hurricane, Andrew, made landfall on Southeast Florida as a Cat-5 while heading west-northwestward. The “converse” of 1992’s Andrew might be a similarly intense hurricane that hits Northwest Florida (i.e., the Big Bend/Nature Coast) instead of Southeast Florida while heading NNE instead of WNW. Intriguingly, the “Water Tiger” 1842 featured a major hurricane that affected Apalachee Bay, especially between St. Marks and Cedar Key. The latest NMME seems to suggest that we might see impacts in this general region come the peak of the season. So a realistic “alternative” to my hypothetical “Ian” might be an Andrew-type storm that tracks NNE into Cedar Key, like an eastward-displaced version of Michael (2018) or a stronger version of the 1896 Cedar Keys hurricane. Even the timeframe (late September or early October) might be similar. Storm #4 of 1902 also originated in the same general area and timeframe as the 1842 Apalachee hurricane.
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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#28 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Apr 12, 2022 11:49 am

Shell Mound wrote::uarrow: In regard to the above, I was also pondering how 2022 might be an “inverse” of 1962 and a “converse” of 1992. 1902, as mentioned, was an “inverse” of 1962. 1902 featured two tropical cyclones that tracked generally northward and north-northeastward toward the northeastern Gulf Coast, one of which impacted Florida’s Big Bend/Nature Coast, near Cedar Key. 1992’s significant hurricane, Andrew, made landfall on Southeast Florida as a Cat-5 while heading west-northwestward. The “converse” of 1992’s Andrew might be a similarly intense hurricane that hits Northwest Florida (i.e., the Big Bend/Nature Coast) instead of Southeast Florida while heading NNE instead of WNW. Intriguingly, the “Water Tiger” 1842 featured a major hurricane that affected Apalachee Bay, especially between St. Marks and Cedar Key. The latest NMME seems to suggest that we might see impacts in this general region come the peak of the season. So a realistic “alternative” to my hypothetical “Ian” might be an Andrew-type storm that tracks NNE into Cedar Key, like an eastward-displaced version of Michael (2018) or a stronger version of the 1896 Cedar Keys hurricane. Even the timeframe (late September or early October) might be similar. Storm #4 of 1902 also originated in the same general area and timeframe as the 1842 Apalachee hurricane.

As a potential analog, the 1896 Cedar Keys hurricane is certainly intriguing. 2022’s “big one” may well be similar to this storm in terms of trajectory and landfall, but end up with a much higher intensity during impact. The Town of Cedar Key has recently sustained impacts from tropical storms Eta (2020) and Elsa (2021), both of which may well represent warm-ups for a bigger event. Maybe 2022 will featuring a strengthening Cat-4+ that directly strikes Cedar Key while heading north-northeastward, like a second coming of Charley (2004) or Michael (2018) in some respects: a relatively small but potentially rapidly deepening system curving ahead of a front. I am actually starting to suspect that FireRat’s methodology would favour this kind of “big” impact on peninsular Florida over a 1926- or Andrew-type track into Greater Miami, at least in 2022. In any event, the Big Bend/Nature Coast of Florida may well be a kind of “ground zero” in 2022.

Image

This illustration truly shows how the east coast of peninsular Florida has been extremely fortunate since 2016. Almost every other location has been impacted, from South Texas to Puerto Rico and the Carolinas! Only the east coast of peninsular Florida has been spared a landfalling hurricane during the same timeframe. The Gulf Coast and the East Coast (excluding peninsular Florida) combined have seen no fewer than eighteen hurricane landfalls, while peninsular Florida has just seen one (two if one counts Irma’s second landfall in the state). The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast have also seen significant indirect impacts from storms such as Isaias and Ida, while still recovering to some degree from Sandy, a storm that hit nearly a decade ago. So peninsular Florida, especially its east coast, is really about the only place left that has not experienced a significant hurricane impact since 2016.
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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#29 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:41 am

wxman57 wrote:I was talking with Phil Klotzbach the other day. New data is even more bullish on seasonal activity, indicating ACE of 170-190. One think to look for is whether the current drought in TX/LA continues into July. That would be good for people there, as hurricane activity may shift east of Louisiana this year.

Wxman57’s latest post on the season

Wxman57’s latest information is disconcerting. The bolded part definitely might imply a greater risk to peninsular Florida than in 2016–21, suggesting a risk that runs eastward from MS, as in some of the “Tiger” years! For example, 1878, 1926, 1950, and 1998 centred on peninsular Florida and/or the Keys, with 1998’s Georges being the western outlier, making its final landfall no farther west than MS! Of these years, only 1926 featured a landfalling major hurricane in LA or points westward. Taken together, the evidence lines up well with earlier points in this thread:
As one can see, the match is rather striking. The vast majority of Cat-2+ impacts on the CONUS that occurred during the Years of the Tiger since 1851 occurred on either peninsular Florida or locations farther north rather than on the Gulf Coast (which per my definition includes the Florida Keys). ... Taken together, the statistics and the aforementioned consideration(s) indicate that peninsular Florida and/or the Keys is rather strongly favoured as a potential major-hurricane target during Years of the Tiger since 1851. 1854, 1938, 1974, and 2010 fail to offset the overall signal that is weighted, both in quantity and quality, toward 1878, 1926, 1950, and 1998.

The set of frequencies definitely targets peninsular Florida and/or the Keys, with a secondary threat centred farther north, around the Carolinas (especially NC). Since 2016 the vast majority of hurricane impacts have occurred on the Gulf Coast and/or the East Coast rather than peninsular Florida. Conversely, could 2022 feature additional East-Coast impacts but be centred on peninsular Florida and/or the Keys rather than the breadth of the Gulf Coast? Combined with an even higher (hyperactive) range of ACE, that might not bode well for the peninsula in 2022! :eek:
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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#30 Postby FireRat » Fri Apr 22, 2022 2:40 am

Caladesi wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I was talking with Phil Klotzbach the other day. New data is even more bullish on seasonal activity, indicating ACE of 170-190. One think to look for is whether the current drought in TX/LA continues into July. That would be good for people there, as hurricane activity may shift east of Louisiana this year.

Wxman57’s latest post on the season

Wxman57’s latest information is disconcerting. The bolded part definitely might imply a greater risk to peninsular Florida than in 2016–21, suggesting a risk that runs eastward from MS, as in some of the “Tiger” years! For example, 1878, 1926, 1950, and 1998 centred on peninsular Florida and/or the Keys, with 1998’s Georges being the western outlier, making its final landfall no farther west than MS! Of these years, only 1926 featured a landfalling major hurricane in LA or points westward. Taken together, the evidence lines up well with earlier points in this thread:
As one can see, the match is rather striking. The vast majority of Cat-2+ impacts on the CONUS that occurred during the Years of the Tiger since 1851 occurred on either peninsular Florida or locations farther north rather than on the Gulf Coast (which per my definition includes the Florida Keys). ... Taken together, the statistics and the aforementioned consideration(s) indicate that peninsular Florida and/or the Keys is rather strongly favoured as a potential major-hurricane target during Years of the Tiger since 1851. 1854, 1938, 1974, and 2010 fail to offset the overall signal that is weighted, both in quantity and quality, toward 1878, 1926, 1950, and 1998.

The set of frequencies definitely targets peninsular Florida and/or the Keys, with a secondary threat centred farther north, around the Carolinas (especially NC). Since 2016 the vast majority of hurricane impacts have occurred on the Gulf Coast and/or the East Coast rather than peninsular Florida. Conversely, could 2022 feature additional East-Coast impacts but be centred on peninsular Florida and/or the Keys rather than the breadth of the Gulf Coast? Combined with an even higher (hyperactive) range of ACE, that might not bode well for the peninsula in 2022! :eek:


Hey Shell, I see you changed your name to Caladesi :)
It really is interesting to see how wxman57 and other pro mets are upping their numbers, 170-190 ACE, holy cow, that's even higher than what I was thinking, big yikes on that regard, wow!

And if the storm activity shifting east of Louisiana verifies, it could actually line up well with some of the Tiger years mentioned, like you pointed out, depending on how much east. Florida really has been lucky for the most part during these past wild seasons, could 2022 really change things? That's the intriguing question! I can see a best case scenario being a 2010, with the worse case scenarios being a 1842/1926/1950 for peninsular FL or a 1866/1938/1998 for other areas in the Atlantic basin.

I still can't believe how the actual indicators and predictions from the professionals keep getting more bullish with time, man 2022 is looking like it means business!
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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#31 Postby FireRat » Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:26 am

Hey guys, I made the following graphic out of curiosity to see how years from this zodiac cycle have behaved in the past with regards to "when activity began to pick up".
I've noticed some posts joking about how this season is even behind 2013's pace by this date, considering that 2022 is certainly not having the same rapid start with a flurry of named storms like 2020-2021. Having seen only Alex so far, one might wonder if this could mean something?

Lets have a look at all the Tiger-year seasons dating back to 1926, so almost back to 100 years...

Image

Looks like the forecasts calling for a very busy season are definitely still on track, and by looking at these years I can say things will likely explode come Late August and last well into the Fall. Interestingly, the active-era Tiger years tended to start rather late compared to other zodiac years, and funny enough the ones that did begin earlier were the slower ones like '86 and '74, so a "slow start" is practically misleading when it comes to indicating an upcoming busy or slow season in years like this one, probably more so than a typical year.

2010 had Alex late in June but the season didn't really blow up until Late August, 1998 had Alex in Late July and didn't really take off until Late August as well when Bonnie formed, 1950 didn't even get the FIRST system until AUGUST, Had 1938 not had that rare January system it would've also not seen its first storm until AUG, 1926 the beast that was didn't get going until Late July with its first storm.

Also worth mentioning, the Majority of the Active-era Tiger years (2010, 1998, 1950, 1926) were quite back-loaded, and were characterized by having both a busy September and a busy October.

Some fun food for thought as we still trudge through the foothills of the 2022 season. 8-)
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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#32 Postby FireRat » Sun Aug 21, 2022 4:02 am

8/20 has passed and the bell has rung!
For fun, lets look at exactly when these years have had the switch flip:
For Tiger Years dating back to 1950, these were the dates on the seasonal timelines when the switch flipped...

1950 - August 12
1962 - August 26 (barely, but still there)
1974 - August 26
1986 - September 7 (weakly similar to 1962, but there nonetheless)
1998 - August 19
2010 - August 22

The above dates are when the first significant peak season tropical system/ tropical storm formed.

*Average switch flip date for these seasons: August 24.
We're getting close, lets see if the 2022 season finally wakes up in the days ahead.
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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#33 Postby 115MphAgatha » Thu Sep 08, 2022 5:25 pm

September 8th and not only have we had exactly two storms since Colin (both of which underperformed - by a large margin in Earl's case) but the Atlantic is actually becoming more hostile, not less. Plus a TUTT will likely be parking over the Caribbean in October due to multiple recurving typhoons. I think Earl might actually have been our Florida threat (the models were all gung-ho for a Florida landfall at first), but ended up recurving (and busting) instead. Looks like 2022's going to be a fairly quiet season overall and the possibility exists that we might not get any majors this year (provided you don't count Bonnie).
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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#34 Postby FireRat » Fri Sep 09, 2022 3:01 pm

115MphAgatha wrote:September 8th and not only have we had exactly two storms since Colin (both of which underperformed - by a large margin in Earl's case) but the Atlantic is actually becoming more hostile, not less. Plus a TUTT will likely be parking over the Caribbean in October due to multiple recurving typhoons. I think Earl might actually have been our Florida threat (the models were all gung-ho for a Florida landfall at first), but ended up recurving (and busting) instead. Looks like 2022's going to be a fairly quiet season overall and the possibility exists that we might not get any majors this year (provided you don't count Bonnie).


It really is becoming more apparent that 2022 is going to likely end up as either below average or average. Perhaps 1962/1902 may end up being the best "analog" years for this season regarding this thread.

The lowest end of the possibilities for 2022 may end up being the best outcome... 11/6/2. If that.
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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#35 Postby FireRat » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:45 am

Bumping thread because of Ian...

2022 isn't messing around anymore!

Could Ian's future track and strength mimic that of the 1842 Cedar Key Hurricane?

This will be interesting to see, as far as history goes the 1842 hurricane was a Major that struck the big bend area with a large storm surge on October 5, which is only a week after when Ian is supposed to hit the FL gulf coast.

Perhaps a little history repeating here. Seems 1842 is now a better analog to this season instead of 1962, the AMO must still be in the same mode it has been since 1995 after all.

Probably a very active October and November from here on, so 15+ NS is on the table again IMO.
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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#36 Postby 115MphAgatha » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:03 am

115MphAgatha wrote:September 8th and not only have we had exactly two storms since Colin (both of which underperformed - by a large margin in Earl's case) but the Atlantic is actually becoming more hostile, not less. Plus a TUTT will likely be parking over the Caribbean in October due to multiple recurving typhoons. I think Earl might actually have been our Florida threat (the models were all gung-ho for a Florida landfall at first), but ended up recurving (and busting) instead. Looks like 2022's going to be a fairly quiet season overall and the possibility exists that we might not get any majors this year (provided you don't count Bonnie).


Like milk. So who had "Tampa major threat" on the bingo card?
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Re: 2022 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 Year Cycle)

#37 Postby FireRat » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:09 pm

Shell Mound wrote::uarrow: In regard to the above, I was also pondering how 2022 might be an “inverse” of 1962 and a “converse” of 1992. 1902, as mentioned, was an “inverse” of 1962. 1902 featured two tropical cyclones that tracked generally northward and north-northeastward toward the northeastern Gulf Coast, one of which impacted Florida’s Big Bend/Nature Coast, near Cedar Key. 1992’s significant hurricane, Andrew, made landfall on Southeast Florida as a Cat-5 while heading west-northwestward. The “converse” of 1992’s Andrew might be a similarly intense hurricane that hits Northwest Florida (i.e., the Big Bend/Nature Coast) instead of Southeast Florida while heading NNE instead of WNW. Intriguingly, the “Water Tiger” 1842 featured a major hurricane that affected Apalachee Bay, especially between St. Marks and Cedar Key. The latest NMME seems to suggest that we might see impacts in this general region come the peak of the season. So a realistic “alternative” to my hypothetical “Ian” might be an Andrew-type storm that tracks NNE into Cedar Key, like an eastward-displaced version of Michael (2018) or a stronger version of the 1896 Cedar Keys hurricane. Even the timeframe (late September or early October) might be similar. Storm #4 of 1902 also originated in the same general area and timeframe as the 1842 Apalachee hurricane.


Man this post from months ago is becoming eerily realistic after what we're now seeing with the forecast with IAN.


Had to be Ian too. The chances of a major hurricane heading to that part of Florida are becoming likely. :eek:
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Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22


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