Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

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Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#1 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:04 am

In your opinion, what are some of the most notable instances of historic hurricanes or other tropical cyclones narrowly averting a situation that could have been historically worse? From my perspective, Lane maintaining strength and turning north while traveling faster, Earl taking a more westward recurve, Irma not hitting Cuba, and Dorian continuing more west as it went over the Bahamas are some scenarios that we should be thankful did not happen!
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#2 Postby Cat5James » Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:45 am

Hurricane IRMA hitting SE FL dead on as a Cat 4+ as was projected 3-4 days out.
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#3 Postby SFLcane » Thu Mar 17, 2022 11:11 am

Cat5James wrote:Hurricane IRMA hitting SE FL dead on as a Cat 4+ as was projected 3-4 days out.


Cat 4? Na if some of those GFS/Euro runs even remotely came to pass with some hitting as a powerful cat 5 it would have made andrew look like a daytime thunderstorm. I expericed Andrew in 92. Extremely lucky to say the least but one day history will repeat itself.

Image

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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#4 Postby Teban54 » Thu Mar 17, 2022 11:16 am

Sam had a few model runs with a Sandy or Long Island Express path.

Florence was expected to hit and race through NC as a Cat 4 a few days out, instead of stalling at the coast as a Cat 1.
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#5 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Mar 17, 2022 11:23 am

SFLcane wrote:
Cat5James wrote:Hurricane IRMA hitting SE FL dead on as a Cat 4+ as was projected 3-4 days out.


Cat 4? Na if some of those GFS/Euro runs even remotely came to pass with some hitting as a powerful cat 5 it would have made andrew look like a daytime thunderstorm. I expericed Andrew in 92. Extremely lucky to say the least but one day history will repeat itself.

https://i.postimg.cc/T315jNPK/euro.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/tJR4q7Zs/irma.png


I personally was very young and did not track Irma closely back then, but wow, I did not know how crazy some of these models really went until now! An 897 mbar landfall over Miami would literally be the city's demise.
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#6 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Mar 17, 2022 11:58 am

Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018 had the potential to get even stronger, but it stayed at 180/185 mph peak instead.
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#7 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Mar 17, 2022 1:19 pm

Hands down Hawaii from 2014-2018. Even in 2020. Dodged bullet after bullet. Hawaii is one hurricane hit away from a Puerto Rico 2017 disaster. Hawaii public safety organizations have published studies citing how catastrophic a simple Cat.1 hurricane hit would be on Hawaii.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_H ... anes#2010s

^Practically every hurricane from 2014 to 2020 in the vicinity of Hawaii was modeled to make a direct landfall. Very fortunate for the 200mb shear or the steering setups that saved Hawaii.
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#8 Postby aspen » Thu Mar 17, 2022 2:54 pm

There have been so many Cape Verde storms that the GFS originally modeled to ride up the East Coast and impact New England at hurricane intensity — Irma, Florence, Teddy, Larry, and Sam are just those I can remember. While Sam was the only one to not impact land, only Florence had a remotely similar impact site to its early GFS runs.

Henri could’ve been a lot worse where I live in western Connecticut. First, it was forecast to intensify much more during its turn to the north than it actually did, with the GFS, ICON, HWRF, and HMON showing it maintaining hurricane intensity into landfall. Second, Henri took a last-minute eastward jog on the night before and early morning of landfall. This combined with its rapid weakening down to a <45 kt TS resulted in minimal impacts where I live.
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#9 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Mar 17, 2022 3:15 pm

Hurricane Rita would have been devastating if it maintained peak strength through landfall
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#10 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Mar 17, 2022 3:18 pm

Also imagine if Katrina had stalled just onshore
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Mar 17, 2022 3:25 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Hurricane Rita would have been devastating if it maintained peak strength through landfall


Not necessarily. Smaller core means smaller RMW, which means less surge.
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#12 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Mar 17, 2022 3:33 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Hurricane Rita would have been devastating if it maintained peak strength through landfall


Not necessarily. Smaller core means smaller RMW, which means less surge.

185 mph with 895mb? I’m certain that would have been worse than what did actually happen.
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Mar 17, 2022 4:10 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Hurricane Rita would have been devastating if it maintained peak strength through landfall


Not necessarily. Smaller core means smaller RMW, which means less surge.

185 mph with 895mb? I’m certain that would have been worse than what did actually happen.


Surge and inland freshwater flooding are the deadliest threats from hurricanes, not wind, and those are only somewhat correlated with direct strength. However, it would have been much worse for people in the relatively compact RMW, but Rita did not hit a particularly populated area. Most of the deaths associated with Rita were due to the evacuation in Houston anyway.
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#14 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Mar 17, 2022 4:13 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Not necessarily. Smaller core means smaller RMW, which means less surge.

185 mph with 895mb? I’m certain that would have been worse than what did actually happen.


Surge and inland freshwater flooding are the deadliest threats from hurricanes, not wind, and those are only somewhat correlated with direct strength. However, it would have been much worse for people in the relatively compact RMW, but Rita did not hit a particularly populated area. Most of the deaths associated with Rita were due to the evacuation in Houston anyway.

Keep in mind had Rita maintained its strength it would have become larger anyhow.
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#15 Postby Hammy » Thu Mar 17, 2022 4:21 pm

Charley not making that northeast turn at the last minute comes to mind. Would've been a direct hit on Tampa, and probably continued intensifying further on top of it.
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#16 Postby kevin » Thu Mar 17, 2022 6:09 pm

Since I started really following storms back in 2017 the biggest examples I can remember are also Irma and Dorian. Dorian was at one point forecasted to be a high-end cat 4 landfall in Florida. And with Irma I still clearly remember when NHC forecasted a direct cat 5 hit on Miami. While the devastation was still enormous in both cases, they are two storms whose impact could've been even greater.
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#17 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Mar 17, 2022 6:13 pm

I think Dorian was in reality a worst case scenario.
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#18 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Mar 17, 2022 6:52 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:I think Dorian was in reality a worst case scenario.


Imagine a hurricane like Dorian, except it parks over central Miami with 185 mph winds (or Houston, or New Orleans, or Tampa Bay for that matter). Now that would be a biblical hurricane whose name alone will be synonymous with disaster and suffering for many many years (and, unfortunately, something that has a non-zero chance of occurring sometime in the future).
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#19 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Mar 18, 2022 12:12 pm

As far as South Florida is concerned, there have almost been too many “what-ifs” to count over the past three decades:

  • Andrew (1992) could have been larger and struck farther north, hitting Miami or Fort Lauderdale instead of Homestead;
  • Georges (1998) could have tracked north of the Greater Antilles and made landfall on South Florida as a major hurricane;
  • Floyd (1999) could have curved much farther west than it did, producing hurricane-force winds from Hollywood northward;
  • Debby (2000) could have avoided Hispaniola and potentially mimicked Andrew en route to a major landfall on South Florida;
  • Frances (2004) could have tracked farther south and maintained Cat-4 winds until landfall, as was initially forecast;
  • Katrina (2005) could have become a major hurricane prior to landfall had it stalled offshore for another day or so;
  • Ernesto (2006) could have encountered lighter shear and approached major-hurricane status before landfall, per the NHC;
  • Ike (2008) could have made less of a pronounced southward dip and instead curved into South Florida as a major;
  • Erika (2015) could have headed farther north and encountered more conducive conditions en route to South Florida;
  • Matthew (2016) could have impacted South Florida as a major, as several models and even the NHC indicated;
  • Irma (2017) could have represented a “worst-case” scenario, heading NNW into South Florida as a Cat-4+, per the NHC;
  • Dorian (2019) could have followed the NHC’s initial forecasts and made landfall on South Florida as a Cat-4+, like Irma
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Re: Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

#20 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Mar 18, 2022 1:57 pm

I think we can all agree that Harvey was a worst case scenario.
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