Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

[Kingarabian]

I think we can all agree that Harvey was a worst case scenario.

Yeah Harvey was a classic case of never say never and how downcasting can come back to bite. I think a lot of us thought it would crash into Mexico. After the models finally realized it would be picked up 2-3 days before landfall, a lot of people didn't think the stalling scenarios were going to verify. Wrong again. Truly one of the more horrific hurricanes.

[CrazyC83]

Also imagine if Katrina had stalled just onshore

That would have required a dramatically different steering environment though. In that case, the steering ridge over Florida and the Southeast would have to break down, with a second ridge (that was never there) developing over Texas.

[CrazyC83]

I think we can all agree that Harvey was a worst case scenario.

Yeah Harvey was a classic case of never say never and how downcasting can come back to bite. I think a lot of us thought it would crash into Mexico. After the models finally realized it would be picked up 2-3 days before landfall, a lot of people didn't think the stalling scenarios were going to verify. Wrong again. Truly one of the more horrific hurricanes.

Harvey and Maria of 2017 were both truly worst case scenarios. It's amazing there were 2 that year and almost a 3rd.

I can't think of too many other storms that absolutely could not have realistically been topped. If Harvey was stronger or weaker, it would have made little difference in the long run anyway, and in the case of Maria, it was the pre-landfall ERC that sealed Puerto Rico's fate.

[aspen]

I think we can all agree that Harvey was a worst case scenario.

Yeah Harvey was a classic case of never say never and how downcasting can come back to bite. I think a lot of us thought it would crash into Mexico. After the models finally realized it would be picked up 2-3 days before landfall, a lot of people didn't think the stalling scenarios were going to verify. Wrong again. Truly one of the more horrific hurricanes.

Harvey and Maria of 2017 were both truly worst case scenarios. It's amazing there were 2 that year and almost a 3rd.

I can't think of too many other storms that absolutely could not have realistically been topped. If Harvey was stronger or weaker, it would have made little difference in the long run anyway, and in the case of Maria, it was the pre-landfall ERC that sealed Puerto Rico's fate.

While Florida was VERY lucky that Irma went a little further south and weakened due to land interaction with Cuba, it was definitely a worse-case scenario for islands like Barbuda and St Martin. You can’t get much worse than a 155 kt landfall on a tiny speck of an island.

2017 as a whole was just a worst case scenario year. It had the perfect combination of a low ITCZ, strong ridging, an active WAM/ASW, and above-average MDR temps to produce so many extremely powerful majors that were directed towards land. 2020 had the active wave train and warm MDR but lacked the strong ridging and south-displaced ITCZ to produce 2017-esqe long-trackers. 2021 had the right ITCZ placement, but once again, ridging was weak enough to give Larry and Sam escape routes away from the Caribbean and CONUS. 2017 was the only year to have 3 storms to each break 40 ACE (Irma, Maria, Jose), and I think it is the only other year besides 2005 to have multiple sub-915mb hurricanes (Irma and Maria).

[doomhaMwx]

For the WPAC, the best case I could think of is SuperTyphoon Hagupit in 2014. We were potentially looking at a "Haiyan 2.0" at that time.

Anyone who has tracked Hagupit will remember how huge of a headache it was due to model guidance being all over the place. JTWC was a constant outlier while all the other agencies were initially bringing it towards where Haiyan struck (ugh, imagine them being hit again just about a year later). At some point, JTWC even explicitly forecasted Hagupit to reach 170kts. The forecast only really became clear 24-48hrs before it made landfall. With Haiyan still fresh in the minds of people and the fact that it was uncertain what the storm will do next, I'd say that the hype I was seeing at that time was justified.

In the end, Hagupit made landfall as a category 3 north of where Haiyan hit. Still a significant storm that caused significant damage, but no doubt that it would've been much worse if the initial forecasts panned out.

[Shell Mound]

Yeah Harvey was a classic case of never say never and how downcasting can come back to bite. I think a lot of us thought it would crash into Mexico. After the models finally realized it would be picked up 2-3 days before landfall, a lot of people didn't think the stalling scenarios were going to verify. Wrong again. Truly one of the more horrific hurricanes.

Harvey and Maria of 2017 were both truly worst case scenarios. It's amazing there were 2 that year and almost a 3rd.

I can't think of too many other storms that absolutely could not have realistically been topped. If Harvey was stronger or weaker, it would have made little difference in the long run anyway, and in the case of Maria, it was the pre-landfall ERC that sealed Puerto Rico's fate.

While Florida was VERY lucky that Irma went a little further south and weakened due to land interaction with Cuba, it was definitely a worse-case scenario for islands like Barbuda and St Martin. You can’t get much worse than a 155 kt landfall on a tiny speck of an island.

Irma was basically a worst- or near-worst-case scenario everywhere except Florida. Irma made four (!) separate landfalls as a Cat-5 hurricane: on Barbuda, St. Martin, Virgin Gorda, and Cuba. Irma also struck the southern Bahamas as a borderline Cat-4/-5. Irma maintained Cat-4+ status for an exceptionally long period of time and was also a very large system, so had it missed Cuba it would have proved catastrophic in South Florida. A north-northwestward trajectory across Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Lake Okeechobee, Orlando, and Jacksonville, as was projected by the NHC and models at several points, would have easily been the costliest solution in American history, given an expected MSW of ≥ 135 kt at landfall.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Imelda was a worst case scenario IMO as well. I mean like, a nothing-storm causing billions of damage in USD? wow

[Teban54]

Oh, how could I have forgotten about this:

Imagine if Laura's Euro runs that brought it to Houston actually verified.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Oh, how could I have forgotten about this:

Imagine if Laura's Euro runs that brought it to Houston actually verified.

oh yeah like high end c4 Houston

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh, how could I have forgotten about this:

Imagine if Laura's Euro runs that brought it to Houston actually verified.

I think the surge and wind damage would have been much worse for Laura than for Harvey, though Harvey was an epic disaster mainly due to how much water it dumped. They would have been made a legendary tale of two different but highly devastating Houston storms.

[NorthieStangl]

I recall that back in 1995 Opal made landfall as a weakening, borderline 115 MPH category 3 hurricane, but it still managed to become, at the time, the 3rd costliest hurricane to make landfall in the USA. It was expected to make landfall at a higher intensity. The entire Florida Panhandle probably could had been completely obliterated.

And I'm surprised that nobody had yet bought the possibility of what would had happened if Sandy made landfall further north up the New Jersey coastline, or on Staten Island. NYC would had fared much worse than it did.

[Foxfires]

Ok this is more of a joke answer but..




HWRF Mangkhut

[Hypercane_Kyle]

In your opinion, what are some of the most notable instances of historic hurricanes or other tropical cyclones narrowly averting a situation that could have been historically worse? From my perspective, Lane maintaining strength and turning north while traveling faster, Earl taking a more westward recurve, Irma not hitting Cuba, and Dorian continuing more west as it went over the Bahamas are some scenarios that we should be thankful did not happen!

Dorian. Had Dorian parked over Miami as a 185mph Category 5, it would've been an absolute calamity.

[InfernoFlameCat]

In your opinion, what are some of the most notable instances of historic hurricanes or other tropical cyclones narrowly averting a situation that could have been historically worse? From my perspective, Lane maintaining strength and turning north while traveling faster, Earl taking a more westward recurve, Irma not hitting Cuba, and Dorian continuing more west as it went over the Bahamas are some scenarios that we should be thankful did not happen!

Dorian. Had Dorian parked over Miami as a 185mph Category 5, it would've been an absolute calamity.

Miami would probably be erased from existence if that happened. Like it would literally be submerged and washed away. I don't know if the land would ever come back after that, like it would permanently alter Florida's geography!

[tolakram]

In your opinion, what are some of the most notable instances of historic hurricanes or other tropical cyclones narrowly averting a situation that could have been historically worse? From my perspective, Lane maintaining strength and turning north while traveling faster, Earl taking a more westward recurve, Irma not hitting Cuba, and Dorian continuing more west as it went over the Bahamas are some scenarios that we should be thankful did not happen!

Dorian. Had Dorian parked over Miami as a 185mph Category 5, it would've been an absolute calamity.

Miami would probably be erased from existence if that happened. Like it would literally be submerged and washed away. I don't know if the land would ever come back after that, like it would permanently alter Florida's geography!

Not sure I agree. It would have spun down fairly quickly over much shallower water and greatly increased wind resistance due to land interaction. I huge disaster, yes, and certainly something that would have been very bad, but I think rain and flooding, much like Harvey, would have been the big story.

[Hurricaneman]

There are many that could have been worse than they were

2020 Laura if it came in 100 miles farther east

2019 Dorian if the stall was 250 miles west

2017 Irma if it didn’t track over Cuba

2015 Erika if it didn’t do the greater Antilles tour

2015 Joaquin if it had continued slowly moving WSW and hit Florida

2010 Earl if moved 200mi west on the recurve would have destroyed OBX

2010 Hermine if it tracked 50mi east. Would have been a hurricane impact on Houston/Galveston

2009 Bill was 50 miles from being a big disaster for Atlantic Canada

2009 Ida could have been real bad for the Mississippi delta if it didn’t make initial landfall Over Central America

2008 Dolly as it clipped the Yucatán before heading to Texas, could have been a major for the Corpus Cristi area very easily if not for that

2008 Fay if not for its love for land would have been a major hurricane in the Florida panhandle I believe

2008 Gustav could have been a lot worse especially if it didn’t hit Hispaniola and Cuba because once again could have been a Cat 5 hitting Beaumont or even Houston/Galveston

2008 Hanna had the stuffing knocked out of it by Hispaniola but if it had stayed north of Hispaniola it could have been devastating for eastern NC and possibly New York and southern New England

2008 Ike went over the length of Cuba but if it had taken the through the straits path this would have been an upper end hurricane for Houston/Galveston

2008 Omar was 50mi from being a Puerto Rican disaster

2007 Humberto could have been worse if it came in 40mi WSW and had another day or so over water

2007 Noel could have been worse for eastern New England if it tracked 50 farther west in the Gulf Stream

[Hurricaneman]

Other older storms before 2000

1999 Bret as it turned towards South Padre Island but if it didn’t bend west it was making a bee line right to Houston/Galveston as a cat 4 hurricane

1999 Dennis if it would have waited a little longer to do the loop would maybe have been a major landfall for OBX

1999 Irene if this had bee 100 miles west it possibly could have missed Cuba and come into Tampa bay as a major

1999 Lenny could have been a near cat 5 for Puerto Rico if the ENE turn had been 12 hrs earlier

1998 Georges if you move the track 50miles north and avoid Cuba and Hispaniola would have been a complete disaster for Miami and Panama City

1996 Edouard was about 250 miles from a substantial hurricane for Southern New England and Long Island

1995 Luis if it recurved 250 miles farther west would have been a Cat 4 for Puerto Rico

1995 Opal for worst case scenario for this one see 2018 Michael

1993 Emily could have been quite a bit worse if it didn’t turn east when it did, would have been a major for eastern NC

1992 Andrew was literally 10miles from complete destruction of Miami

1991 Bob was close to being a major landfall in OBX

1989 Hugo could have been worse if it came in at a different angle and hit both Savannah and Jacksonville with the eyewall

1985 Elena could have kept going into Tampa bay as a major hurricane

1985 Kate if it went through the straits and curved sharper could have been a major for Tampa

[Patrick99]

Hurricane IRMA hitting SE FL dead on as a Cat 4+ as was projected 3-4 days out.

Cat 4? Na if some of those GFS/Euro runs even remotely came to pass with some hitting as a powerful cat 5 it would have made andrew look like a daytime thunderstorm. I expericed Andrew in 92. Extremely lucky to say the least but one day history will repeat itself.

https://i.postimg.cc/T315jNPK/euro.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/tJR4q7Zs/irma.png

This one scared me, 897mb into the gut of Miami. It wasn't GFS doing GFS things, either, that scenario was entirely possible with the atmosphere and SSTs absolutely juiced in the area between Cuba, Andros and Miami. The entire Miami-WPB region still wouldn't have fully recovered to this day.

[SconnieCane]

Ok this is more of a joke answer but..




HWRF Mangkhut

The HWRF was basically forecasting Mangkhut to turn into Earth's version of the Great Red Spot with that run.

[Ptarmigan]

I recall Hurricane Gilbert was forecasted to hit Southeast Texas as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. It was a monster hurricane back in 1988.