When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22

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When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced?

Poll ended at Sun Apr 10, 2022 7:00 pm

April 11-20
0
No votes
April 21-30
0
No votes
May 1-10
7
29%
May 11-20
10
42%
May 21-31
6
25%
June 1-10
1
4%
June 11-20
0
No votes
June 21-30
0
No votes
July
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 24

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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22

#21 Postby HUC » Mon May 09, 2022 10:18 am

[quote="wxman57"]This is very, very subjective. Waves can be tracked along the ITCZ for much of the year. When the NHC decides to identify one of them is irrelevant as far as a predictor of seasonal activity.[/quote]

Agree with that. I have the dates since 2008 and i have noted different dates for the first waves!
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8 22 Near African coast

#22 Postby Teban54 » Mon May 09, 2022 10:26 am

LemieT wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Here is a list of the first tropical waves since 2000. Is in spanish but the dates are clear in any language.

https://i.imgur.com/kQmGzUx.jpg


All the years that had their first wave form before May 10: 2005, 2008, 2010, 2017, and now 2022. :wink:


I found this an interesting note. Not just busy years, but high impact years as well... Maybe mere coincidence, but stats are a thing for a reason.

Do note that 2021's early season activity, particularly an early July MDR hurricane in Elsa, was only matched by years that ended up hyperactive. 2021 didn't.
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22

#23 Postby skyline385 » Mon May 09, 2022 11:16 am

wxman57 wrote:This is very, very subjective. Waves can be tracked along the ITCZ for much of the year. When the NHC decides to identify one of them is irrelevant as far as a predictor of seasonal activity.

Was the first thing that came to my mind when i saw the news too. How do you distinguish this one wave as the first wave when they really can exist during any part of the year?
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22

#24 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 09, 2022 4:10 pm

skyline385 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:This is very, very subjective. Waves can be tracked along the ITCZ for much of the year. When the NHC decides to identify one of them is irrelevant as far as a predictor of seasonal activity.

Was the first thing that came to my mind when i saw the news too. How do you distinguish this one wave as the first wave when they really can exist during any part of the year?


There is some subjectivity, yes, but they can't exist during the entire year. You don't tend to get AEWs before May, so having tropical waves during that time of year is generally not possible
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22

#25 Postby toad strangler » Mon May 09, 2022 5:15 pm

NotSparta wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:This is very, very subjective. Waves can be tracked along the ITCZ for much of the year. When the NHC decides to identify one of them is irrelevant as far as a predictor of seasonal activity.

Was the first thing that came to my mind when i saw the news too. How do you distinguish this one wave as the first wave when they really can exist during any part of the year?


There is some subjectivity, yes, but they can't exist during the entire year. You don't tend to get AEWs before May, so having tropical waves during that time of year is generally not possible


This makes sense. Why wouldn’t NOAA call them out all year if they were present all year? A tropical wave is a tropical wave right?
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22

#26 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 09, 2022 8:11 pm

Still hanging on with convection and has not puffed.

Image
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22

#27 Postby AJC3 » Tue May 10, 2022 1:10 am

toad strangler wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Was the first thing that came to my mind when i saw the news too. How do you distinguish this one wave as the first wave when they really can exist during any part of the year?


There is some subjectivity, yes, but they can't exist during the entire year. You don't tend to get AEWs before May, so having tropical waves during that time of year is generally not possible


This makes sense. Why wouldn’t NOAA call them out all year if they were present all year? A tropical wave is a tropical wave right?


Outside of December and May, off-season AEWs, are very low in both latitude (embedded within the ITCZ) and amplitude (i.e. very little veering of winds about their axes). So these perturbations are usually: (1) Indistinct from the ITCZ, and (2) Very difficult (if not impossible) to diagnose and track. Therefore you won't see them discussed as features outside of the ITCZ. I have another brief post about AEWs and the AEJ, relating to a T-wave in Late April/early May here:

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 3#p2966244
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