When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22

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When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced?

Poll ended at Sun Apr 10, 2022 7:00 pm

April 11-20
0
No votes
April 21-30
0
No votes
May 1-10
7
29%
May 11-20
10
42%
May 21-31
6
25%
June 1-10
1
4%
June 11-20
0
No votes
June 21-30
0
No votes
July
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 24

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cycloneye
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When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 31, 2022 7:00 pm

Let's see how the peeps vote on this question and the poll will close on April 10 at 8 PM EDT.
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced?

#2 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Mar 31, 2022 7:02 pm

I think we could have tropical waves early in May, but given that is almost a month before the start of the season, I do not foresee any of those developing into tropical storms.
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced?

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:44 am

Only 17 votes? This poll closes next sunday at 8 PM EDT.
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced?

#4 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:20 pm

I'll vote for one of the most unlikely to win categories: June 1-10.
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced?

#5 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sun May 08, 2022 12:15 am

Congrats to those who voted for May 1-10...
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The first tropical wave of the season appears to move off the W
coast of Africa. Currently, clusters of moderate to strong convection
are noted over parts of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The
Hovmoller diagram clearly shows the westward propagation of this
convective activity. Tropical wave guidance has it moving westward
over the next 24-48 hours, crossing just S of the Cabo Verde Islands.
A tropical wave will likely be added to the 0600 UTC analysis/surface
map.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced?

#6 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun May 08, 2022 12:39 am

Wow! This is relatively early for the first official TW. I seem to remember years having their first TW in early May be above average or hyperactive historically, does anyone happen to have a list of dates when the first TW was designated? I know it has been on or after May 15 the last four years.
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced?

#7 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun May 08, 2022 1:18 am

And so it begins. :flag: :flag: :flag:
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced?

#8 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun May 08, 2022 3:54 am

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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced?

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 08, 2022 5:02 am

The option May 1-10 is the winner with 29% of the votes.
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8 22 Near African coast

#10 Postby ouragans » Sun May 08, 2022 5:26 am

I can't find the dates for the last 5 years
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8 22 Near African coast

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 08, 2022 5:27 am

Image
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22 Near African coast

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 08, 2022 6:50 am

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The first tropical wave of the season is emerging off the W coast
of Africa this morning. Currently, clusters of moderate to strong
convection are noted over parts of Guinea, Sierra Leone and
Liberia. The Hovmoller diagram clearly shows the westward
propagation of this convective activity. Tropical wave guidance
has it moving westward over the next 24-48 hours, crossing just S
of the Cabo Verde Islands.
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22 Near African coast

#13 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sun May 08, 2022 10:41 am

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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8 22 Near African coast

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 08, 2022 1:11 pm

ouragans wrote:I can't find the dates for the last 5 years


Here is a list of the first tropical waves since 2000. Is in spanish but the dates are clear in any language.

Image
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8 22 Near African coast

#15 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun May 08, 2022 1:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ouragans wrote:I can't find the dates for the last 5 years


Here is a list of the first tropical waves since 2000. Is in spanish but the dates are clear in any language.

https://i.imgur.com/kQmGzUx.jpg


All the years that had their first wave form before May 10: 2005, 2008, 2010, 2017, and now 2022. :wink:
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8 22 Near African coast

#16 Postby AnnularCane » Sun May 08, 2022 2:12 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
ouragans wrote:I can't find the dates for the last 5 years


Here is a list of the first tropical waves since 2000. Is in spanish but the dates are clear in any language.

https://i.imgur.com/kQmGzUx.jpg


All the years that had their first wave form before May 10: 2005, 2008, 2010, 2017, and now 2022. :wink:



I suppose it could just be a coincidence, but...yikes? :wink:
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22

#17 Postby wxman57 » Sun May 08, 2022 6:43 pm

There were weak waves in April. With zero chance of development, they pass without mention.
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8 22 Near African coast

#18 Postby LemieT » Sun May 08, 2022 10:23 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
ouragans wrote:I can't find the dates for the last 5 years


Here is a list of the first tropical waves since 2000. Is in spanish but the dates are clear in any language.

https://i.imgur.com/kQmGzUx.jpg


All the years that had their first wave form before May 10: 2005, 2008, 2010, 2017, and now 2022. :wink:


I found this an interesting note. Not just busy years, but high impact years as well... Maybe mere coincidence, but stats are a thing for a reason.
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8 22 Near African coast

#19 Postby ouragans » Mon May 09, 2022 7:55 am

cycloneye wrote:
ouragans wrote:I can't find the dates for the last 5 years


Here is a list of the first tropical waves since 2000. Is in spanish but the dates are clear in any language.

https://i.imgur.com/kQmGzUx.jpg

Thanks a lot. I assume one should take note of this for the next years
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22

#20 Postby wxman57 » Mon May 09, 2022 9:56 am

This is very, very subjective. Waves can be tracked along the ITCZ for much of the year. When the NHC decides to identify one of them is irrelevant as far as a predictor of seasonal activity.
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