When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22
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- cycloneye
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When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22
Let's see how the peeps vote on this question and the poll will close on April 10 at 8 PM EDT.
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced?
I think we could have tropical waves early in May, but given that is almost a month before the start of the season, I do not foresee any of those developing into tropical storms.
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- cycloneye
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced?
Only 17 votes? This poll closes next sunday at 8 PM EDT.
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced?
I'll vote for one of the most unlikely to win categories: June 1-10.
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced?
Congrats to those who voted for May 1-10...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The first tropical wave of the season appears to move off the W
coast of Africa. Currently, clusters of moderate to strong convection
are noted over parts of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The
Hovmoller diagram clearly shows the westward propagation of this
convective activity. Tropical wave guidance has it moving westward
over the next 24-48 hours, crossing just S of the Cabo Verde Islands.
A tropical wave will likely be added to the 0600 UTC analysis/surface
map.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced?
Wow! This is relatively early for the first official TW. I seem to remember years having their first TW in early May be above average or hyperactive historically, does anyone happen to have a list of dates when the first TW was designated? I know it has been on or after May 15 the last four years.
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- cycloneye
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced?
The option May 1-10 is the winner with 29% of the votes.
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8 22 Near African coast
I can't find the dates for the last 5 years
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David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris '95, Luis '95, Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
This post is just a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris '95, Luis '95, Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
- cycloneye
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8 22 Near African coast
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- cycloneye
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22 Near African coast
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The first tropical wave of the season is emerging off the W coast
of Africa this morning. Currently, clusters of moderate to strong
convection are noted over parts of Guinea, Sierra Leone and
Liberia. The Hovmoller diagram clearly shows the westward
propagation of this convective activity. Tropical wave guidance
has it moving westward over the next 24-48 hours, crossing just S
of the Cabo Verde Islands.
The first tropical wave of the season is emerging off the W coast
of Africa this morning. Currently, clusters of moderate to strong
convection are noted over parts of Guinea, Sierra Leone and
Liberia. The Hovmoller diagram clearly shows the westward
propagation of this convective activity. Tropical wave guidance
has it moving westward over the next 24-48 hours, crossing just S
of the Cabo Verde Islands.
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22 Near African coast
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- cycloneye
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8 22 Near African coast
ouragans wrote:I can't find the dates for the last 5 years
Here is a list of the first tropical waves since 2000. Is in spanish but the dates are clear in any language.
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8 22 Near African coast
cycloneye wrote:ouragans wrote:I can't find the dates for the last 5 years
Here is a list of the first tropical waves since 2000. Is in spanish but the dates are clear in any language.
https://i.imgur.com/kQmGzUx.jpg
All the years that had their first wave form before May 10: 2005, 2008, 2010, 2017, and now 2022.
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8 22 Near African coast
Category5Kaiju wrote:cycloneye wrote:ouragans wrote:I can't find the dates for the last 5 years
Here is a list of the first tropical waves since 2000. Is in spanish but the dates are clear in any language.
https://i.imgur.com/kQmGzUx.jpg
All the years that had their first wave form before May 10: 2005, 2008, 2010, 2017, and now 2022.
I suppose it could just be a coincidence, but...yikes?
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- wxman57
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22
There were weak waves in April. With zero chance of development, they pass without mention.
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8 22 Near African coast
Category5Kaiju wrote:cycloneye wrote:ouragans wrote:I can't find the dates for the last 5 years
Here is a list of the first tropical waves since 2000. Is in spanish but the dates are clear in any language.
https://i.imgur.com/kQmGzUx.jpg
All the years that had their first wave form before May 10: 2005, 2008, 2010, 2017, and now 2022.
I found this an interesting note. Not just busy years, but high impact years as well... Maybe mere coincidence, but stats are a thing for a reason.
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- ouragans
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8 22 Near African coast
cycloneye wrote:ouragans wrote:I can't find the dates for the last 5 years
Here is a list of the first tropical waves since 2000. Is in spanish but the dates are clear in any language.
https://i.imgur.com/kQmGzUx.jpg
Thanks a lot. I assume one should take note of this for the next years
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Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is just a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris '95, Luis '95, Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
This post is just a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris '95, Luis '95, Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
- wxman57
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Re: When will the first 2022 Tropical Wave be officially introduced? 5/8/22
This is very, very subjective. Waves can be tracked along the ITCZ for much of the year. When the NHC decides to identify one of them is irrelevant as far as a predictor of seasonal activity.
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