EPAC Hurricane Season Numbers Poll
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- cycloneye
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EPAC Hurricane Season Numbers Poll
Is the first time there is a poll for the members to vote on how you think of the numbers for the Eastern Pacific. Poll closes on May 15th at 8:42 PM. If anyone wants to comment apart from voting can do so.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC poll
Last 10 years or so make plus likely northward displaced ITCZ make this an easy vote for option 3.
I’d probably peg like 19/6/1 with an ACE of 85 if I wanted to be a little bold.
I’d probably peg like 19/6/1 with an ACE of 85 if I wanted to be a little bold.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Fri Apr 15, 2022 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: EPAC poll
Went with a below average 11-15. La Niña and -PDO are both better-established than the prior two years at this point in time so I do think the floor is pretty low. NS count could end up a little higher if we get some more of those short-lived sloppy tropical storms like the prior three seasons though, not unlike the "shorties" in the Atlantic.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC poll
Went with 11-15 named systems. Unfortunately my EPAC won't compete this year.
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Re: EPAC poll
18/8/3 ACE 96
The EPAC season is longer in the sense that MJO pulses can produce quality right when the season starts, whereas the ATL producing quality usually doesn't start until 2 months after the official kickoff in June, so even in down years the EPAC can still produce a decent storm count, they just are typically shorter and weaker.
2020 did 17/4/3 and 2021 did 19/8/2 so voting for the 16-20 range seems the safest bet. I'm not expecting a banner Pacific year, but I think there will be at least a couple good majors to watch.
The EPAC season is longer in the sense that MJO pulses can produce quality right when the season starts, whereas the ATL producing quality usually doesn't start until 2 months after the official kickoff in June, so even in down years the EPAC can still produce a decent storm count, they just are typically shorter and weaker.
2020 did 17/4/3 and 2021 did 19/8/2 so voting for the 16-20 range seems the safest bet. I'm not expecting a banner Pacific year, but I think there will be at least a couple good majors to watch.
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Re: EPAC poll
Suggestion: Make the title more informative like "2022 EPAC Hurricane Season Numbers Poll"?
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Re: EPAC poll
Keep in mind that in terms of named storms, EPAC has been above average for the past 9 years. More and more shorties are named in the Pacific, just like the Atlantic. I am expecting at least 16 NS this season.
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC poll
Teban54 wrote:Suggestion: Make the title more informative like "2022 EPAC Hurricane Season Numbers Poll"?
Modified the title.
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Re: EPAC Hurricane Season Numbers Poll
Most likely this’ll be a repeat of the last two seasons: extreme quantity-over-quality with several questionable systems (looking at you, Julio ‘20), as well as an early TD or weak TS.
16-19 NS, 5-7 H, 2-4 MH with an ACE of 75-95 units.
16-19 NS, 5-7 H, 2-4 MH with an ACE of 75-95 units.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- AtlanticWind
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: EPAC Hurricane Season Numbers Poll
Is there any way I can change my vote to 16-21 NS? I feel it is more logical given my reasoning.
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC Hurricane Season Numbers Poll
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Is there any way I can change my vote to 16-21 NS? I feel it is more logical given my reasoning.
Edited the poll to allow members to change their vote.
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Re: EPAC Hurricane Season Numbers Poll
The Pacific pattern is well-defined this year: the Nino 1+2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and Nino 4 indices will be below-average; the PDO will be negative. Since 2000, the seasons that conform to this pattern for JAS are: 2000, 2010, 2011, 2020, and 2021. The average ACE of all of these seasons is 86.8. From 2010 to 2021, the average ACE for East Pacific hurricane seasons was 141.4, and the average storm count was 18.5, which was an average of 7.643 ACE per storm. For an ACE of 86.8, that would be a storm count of 11.4. Given that the expected pattern is one of the least favorable patterns for development in the East Pacific and given the recent ACE:storm ratio, I am expecting between 11 and 15 storms in the East Pacific this year.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC Hurricane Season Numbers Poll
AlphaToOmega wrote:The Pacific pattern is well-defined this year: the Nino 1+2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and Nino 4 indices will be below-average; the PDO will be negative. Since 2000, the seasons that conform to this pattern for JAS are: 2000, 2010, 2011, 2020, and 2021. The average ACE of all of these seasons is 86.8. From 2010 to 2021, the average ACE for East Pacific hurricane seasons was 141.4, and the average storm count was 18.5, which was an average of 7.643 ACE per storm. For an ACE of 86.8, that would be a storm count of 11.4. Given that the expected pattern is one of the least favorable patterns for development in the East Pacific and given the recent ACE:storm ratio, I am expecting between 11 and 15 storms in the East Pacific this year.
The problem with this analysis is it assumes 7.643 ACE per storm which is rare in La Niña. Only instance of >6.5 ACE per storm in a non-El Nino since 1998 is 2011, which had a southward displaced ITCZ, which gave the systems more time to intensify over warm waters while sacrificing quantity.
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC Hurricane Season Numbers Poll
Those who have not voted yet on this poll have until May 15th at 8:42 PM EDT when it closes.
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