-ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#21 Postby NotSparta » Sun May 01, 2022 2:32 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:If we were to extend the original question back a bit, 1973-75 look really terrible for such a strong -ENSO compared to other robust -ENSO events in a -AMO. 1988/89 and the strong Ninas in the early 20th century generally resulted in at least respectable seasons yet that stretch was not much more active than El Ninos and neutrals in that same era.


Yeah basically the entirety of the 1970s was pretty quiet no matter what. The 1980s were a bit more varied, you had the super dead seasons but also a couple of active seasons
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#22 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun May 01, 2022 7:20 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:If we were to extend the original question back a bit, 1973-75 look really terrible for such a strong -ENSO compared to other robust -ENSO events in a -AMO. 1988/89 and the strong Ninas in the early 20th century generally resulted in at least respectable seasons yet that stretch was not much more active than El Ninos and neutrals in that same era.


Yeah basically the entirety of the 1970s was pretty quiet no matter what. The 1980s were a bit more varied, you had the super dead seasons but also a couple of active seasons


What I find particularly interesting is how the EPAC basically had an above average, active streak from 1982-1985 and another streak from 1990-1994 (all of those years having ACE that would be considered "hyperactive" according to Atlantic standards). Seems like the EPAC could have cared less about El Nino or La Nina during those 9 years. But then there was 1986-1989, which featured near normal or slightly above-average activity in terms of ACE. And 1986 and 1987 were El Nino years that exceeded 1 C above average while 1988 and 1989 were strong La Nina and cool neutral respectively. I wonder why there's this activity break between 1985 and 1990.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#23 Postby Iceresistance » Sun May 01, 2022 7:37 pm

October through December 2021 had NO Major Tropical Cyclones globally at all.

ON had no named storms in 2021 for the Atlantic, but 2021 was indeed hyperactive before it seems like that it became extremely exhausted from being on Tropical Cyclone overdrive and did not want to repeat 2020.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon May 02, 2022 6:12 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:If we were to extend the original question back a bit, 1973-75 look really terrible for such a strong -ENSO compared to other robust -ENSO events in a -AMO. 1988/89 and the strong Ninas in the early 20th century generally resulted in at least respectable seasons yet that stretch was not much more active than El Ninos and neutrals in that same era.


Yeah basically the entirety of the 1970s was pretty quiet no matter what. The 1980s were a bit more varied, you had the super dead seasons but also a couple of active seasons


What I find particularly interesting is how the EPAC basically had an above average, active streak from 1982-1985 and another streak from 1990-1994 (all of those years having ACE that would be considered "hyperactive" according to Atlantic standards). Seems like the EPAC could have cared less about El Nino or La Nina during those 9 years. But then there was 1986-1989, which featured near normal or slightly above-average activity in terms of ACE. And 1986 and 1987 were El Nino years that exceeded 1 C above average while 1988 and 1989 were strong La Nina and cool neutral respectively. I wonder why there's this activity break between 1985 and 1990.


1986 was a Modoki-ish El Niño (El Ninos don’t seem to get any more active or less active regardless of AMO). 1987 was above average (Nino was stronger than the year before) and 1988-89 was a strong Niña where both seasons managed to break 110 ACE. I wouldn’t consider this period much of a break, and that as a whole 1982-94 is one super long ridiculously active stretch that puts the last 6 years in the Atlantic to shame. With that said, keep in mind the +AMO state is more common than the -AMO state so the two basins are naturally going to have different activity distributions.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Mon May 02, 2022 3:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon May 02, 2022 6:13 am

Iceresistance wrote:October through December 2021 had NO Major Tropical Cyclones globally at all.

ON had no named storms in 2021 for the Atlantic, but 2021 was indeed hyperactive before it seems like that it became extremely exhausted from being on Tropical Cyclone overdrive and did not want to repeat 2020.


Malou and Rai say hi.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#26 Postby aspen » Mon May 02, 2022 7:58 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:October through December 2021 had NO Major Tropical Cyclones globally at all.

ON had no named storms in 2021 for the Atlantic, but 2021 was indeed hyperactive before it seems like that it became extremely exhausted from being on Tropical Cyclone overdrive and did not want to repeat 2020.


Malou and Rai say hi.

Still, there was a 60 day drought in global MH activity between Sam and Nyatoh, the longest in the entire satellite era and highly abnormal for an active La Niña-fueled Atlantic.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#27 Postby dexterlabio » Mon May 02, 2022 11:59 pm

aspen wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:October through December 2021 had NO Major Tropical Cyclones globally at all.

ON had no named storms in 2021 for the Atlantic, but 2021 was indeed hyperactive before it seems like that it became extremely exhausted from being on Tropical Cyclone overdrive and did not want to repeat 2020.


Malou and Rai say hi.

Still, there was a 60 day drought in global MH activity between Sam and Nyatoh, the longest in the entire satellite era and highly abnormal for an active La Niña-fueled Atlantic.



Didn't this happen also in 2017? That was the last textbook hyperactive Atlantic season that I consider, but since Ophelia dissipated in October, not a single Cat3+ formed worldwide that year.


I always thought La Niña years are supposed to be above average TC seasons in the Atlantic, but in terms of global activity La Niña years do not deliver. And I believe that is due to the fact that the Pacific basins are dead during a La Niña, and even a hyperactive Atlantic wouldn't be enough to raise the global activity to normal level.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#28 Postby JetFuel_SE » Tue May 03, 2022 2:15 am

dexterlabio wrote:
aspen wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Malou and Rai say hi.

Still, there was a 60 day drought in global MH activity between Sam and Nyatoh, the longest in the entire satellite era and highly abnormal for an active La Niña-fueled Atlantic.



Didn't this happen also in 2017? That was the last textbook hyperactive Atlantic season that I consider, but since Ophelia dissipated in October, not a single Cat3+ formed worldwide that year.


I always thought La Niña years are supposed to be above average TC seasons in the Atlantic, but in terms of global activity La Niña years do not deliver. And I believe that is due to the fact that the Pacific basins are dead during a La Niña, and even a hyperactive Atlantic wouldn't be enough to raise the global activity to normal level.

When the Atlantic is active, most of the rest of the world tends to die.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#29 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 03, 2022 3:23 am

dexterlabio wrote:
aspen wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Malou and Rai say hi.

Still, there was a 60 day drought in global MH activity between Sam and Nyatoh, the longest in the entire satellite era and highly abnormal for an active La Niña-fueled Atlantic.



Didn't this happen also in 2017? That was the last textbook hyperactive Atlantic season that I consider, but since Ophelia dissipated in October, not a single Cat3+ formed worldwide that year.


I always thought La Niña years are supposed to be above average TC seasons in the Atlantic, but in terms of global activity La Niña years do not deliver. And I believe that is due to the fact that the Pacific basins are dead during a La Niña, and even a hyperactive Atlantic wouldn't be enough to raise the global activity to normal level.


There was Typhoon Lan around October 20, but yeah aside from that there weren't any after Ophelia
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