-ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

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-ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#1 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Apr 30, 2022 12:00 pm

A negative ENSO usually means below-average wind shear in the Western Atlantic, especially during autumn. However, many seasons could not take advantage of these conditions. From 1995 to 2021, there were 15 -ENSO seasons (1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2017, 2020, and 2021), 9 of which (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2017, and 2021) failed to have 2 or more storms attain major hurricane intensity in ON (October and November). Furthermore, 4 of those (2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021) failed to attain 1 major hurricane during ON.

Summary:

  • 2+ major hurricanes during ON: 1995, 2001, 2005, 2008, 2016, and 2020
  • 1 major hurricane during ON: 1996, 1998, 1999, 2011, and 2017
  • 0 major hurricanes during ON: 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021

The question is: why do some -ENSO seasons fail to take advantage of theoretically favorable conditions?

Some of these can easily be answered: 2007 and 2021 had strong Atlantic Niños, suppressing the ITCZ to the south; and 2000 was a -AMM year. However, some of these make little sense: why did 2010 fail to produce a single major hurricane during ON. It had a -PDO, +AMM, +AMO, and no strong Atlantic Niño; plus, it was ultimately a strong La Niña? What ASO conditions do 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021 share that the others do not? What ASO conditions do 1996, 1998, 1999, 2011, and 2017 share that the others do not?
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#2 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Apr 30, 2022 12:07 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:A negative ENSO usually means below-average wind shear in the Western Atlantic, especially during autumn. However, many seasons could not take advantage of these conditions. From 1995 to 2021, there were 15 -ENSO seasons (1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2017, 2020, and 2021), 9 of which (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2017, and 2021) failed to have 2 or more storms attain major hurricane intensity in ON (October and November). Furthermore, 4 of those (2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021) failed to attain 1 major hurricane during ON.

Summary:

  • 2+ major hurricanes during ON: 1995, 2001, 2005, 2008, 2016, and 2020
  • 1 major hurricane during ON: 1996, 1998, 1999, 2011, and 2017
  • 0 major hurricanes during ON: 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021

The question is: why do some -ENSO seasons fail to take advantage of theoretically favorable conditions?

Some of these can easily be answered: 2007 and 2021 had strong Atlantic Niños, suppressing the ITCZ to the south; and 2000 was a -AMM year. However, some of these make little sense: why did 2010 fail to produce a single major hurricane during ON. It had a -PDO, +AMM, +AMO, and no strong Atlantic Niño; plus, it was ultimately a strong La Niña? What ASO conditions do 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021 share that the others do not? What ASO conditions do 1996, 1998, 1999, 2011, and 2017 share that the others do not?

2010 had massive dry air problems in the Caribbean, where October/November development is favored.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#3 Postby Stormybajan » Sat Apr 30, 2022 12:07 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:A negative ENSO usually means below-average wind shear in the Western Atlantic, especially during autumn. However, many seasons could not take advantage of these conditions. From 1995 to 2021, there were 15 -ENSO seasons (1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2017, 2020, and 2021), 9 of which (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2017, and 2021) failed to have 2 or more storms attain major hurricane intensity in ON (October and November). Furthermore, 4 of those (2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021) failed to attain 1 major hurricane during ON.

Summary:

  • 2+ major hurricanes during ON: 1995, 2001, 2005, 2008, 2016, and 2020
  • 1 major hurricane during ON: 1996, 1998, 1999, 2011, and 2017
  • 0 major hurricanes during ON: 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021

The question is: why do some -ENSO seasons fail to take advantage of theoretically favorable conditions?

Some of these can easily be answered: 2007 and 2021 had strong Atlantic Niños, suppressing the ITCZ to the south; and 2000 was a -AMM year. However, some of these make little sense: why did 2010 fail to produce a single major hurricane during ON. It had a -PDO, +AMM, +AMO, and no strong Atlantic Niño; plus, it was ultimately a strong La Niña? What ASO conditions do 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021 share that the others do not? What ASO conditions do 1996, 1998, 1999, 2011, and 2017 share that the others do not?

My guy 2010 literally had FIVE (5) hurricanes in October..it doesnt get much more active than that :blowup:
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#4 Postby NotSparta » Sat Apr 30, 2022 12:13 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:A negative ENSO usually means below-average wind shear in the Western Atlantic, especially during autumn. However, many seasons could not take advantage of these conditions. From 1995 to 2021, there were 15 -ENSO seasons (1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2017, 2020, and 2021), 9 of which (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2017, and 2021) failed to have 2 or more storms attain major hurricane intensity in ON (October and November). Furthermore, 4 of those (2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021) failed to attain 1 major hurricane during ON.

Summary:

  • 2+ major hurricanes during ON: 1995, 2001, 2005, 2008, 2016, and 2020
  • 1 major hurricane during ON: 1996, 1998, 1999, 2011, and 2017
  • 0 major hurricanes during ON: 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021

The question is: why do some -ENSO seasons fail to take advantage of theoretically favorable conditions?

Some of these can easily be answered: 2007 and 2021 had strong Atlantic Niños, suppressing the ITCZ to the south; and 2000 was a -AMM year. However, some of these make little sense: why did 2010 fail to produce a single major hurricane during ON. It had a -PDO, +AMM, +AMO, and no strong Atlantic Niño; plus, it was ultimately a strong La Niña? What ASO conditions do 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021 share that the others do not? What ASO conditions do 1996, 1998, 1999, 2011, and 2017 share that the others do not?


Pretty high bar to get nearly the seasonal average of majors after the peak, just can't have that every -ENSO year. Can take even a minor disruption/unfavorable state to prevent that from happening or even just plain luck
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#5 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat Apr 30, 2022 12:16 pm

Stormybajan wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:A negative ENSO usually means below-average wind shear in the Western Atlantic, especially during autumn. However, many seasons could not take advantage of these conditions. From 1995 to 2021, there were 15 -ENSO seasons (1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2017, 2020, and 2021), 9 of which (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2017, and 2021) failed to have 2 or more storms attain major hurricane intensity in ON (October and November). Furthermore, 4 of those (2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021) failed to attain 1 major hurricane during ON.

Summary:

  • 2+ major hurricanes during ON: 1995, 2001, 2005, 2008, 2016, and 2020
  • 1 major hurricane during ON: 1996, 1998, 1999, 2011, and 2017
  • 0 major hurricanes during ON: 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021

The question is: why do some -ENSO seasons fail to take advantage of theoretically favorable conditions?

Some of these can easily be answered: 2007 and 2021 had strong Atlantic Niños, suppressing the ITCZ to the south; and 2000 was a -AMM year. However, some of these make little sense: why did 2010 fail to produce a single major hurricane during ON. It had a -PDO, +AMM, +AMO, and no strong Atlantic Niño; plus, it was ultimately a strong La Niña? What ASO conditions do 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021 share that the others do not? What ASO conditions do 1996, 1998, 1999, 2011, and 2017 share that the others do not?

My guy 2010 literally had FIVE (5) hurricanes in October..it doesnt get much more active than that :blowup:

To be fair 2010 did underperform a bit, not so much in just October and November but overall. The Tropical Atlantic was at record levels of warmth, and over in the Pacific, ENSO, the PDO and NPMM were all strongly negative which shut down the EPAC after June, yet the season only managed to eclipse the hyperactive threshold by about 5 units (1951-2020 climo), far from a top 10 season ACE-wise, and there were no Cat 5s (officially anyway, I know there's debate surrounding Igor). Several years with less favorable setups overall (as in almost all of them) managed to fair better than 2010.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#6 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Apr 30, 2022 12:23 pm

I mean, I think of all the -ENSO seasons that underperformed, 2013 is by far the one that intrigues me the most. We could even dedicate an entire Storm2k thread on what happened in 2013.

I will say, many of the seasons you mentioned such as 2000 and 2007 "underperformed" conspicuously as they had basin-wide cooler than average sst anomalies throughout most of spring and summer. 2010 was weird in that it seemed to struggle a bit with mid-level dry air, although something tells me that this may have had something to do with the persistent, crazy MDR warmth that lasted throughout the spring and summer (2020 and 2005 to an extent also had this dry air issue, and they were also years with persistent, above-average MDR warmth). 2011 was a Modoki La Nina year with an EPAC that featured an above-average number of major hurricanes despite seeing below-normal number of total NS; this likely robbed the Atlantic of its true potential that year despite a relatively favorable ENSO state and sst anomaly configuration.

Now as for why some -ENSO years have one MH in October and November while others have more...that I have no idea. Intraseasonal variability is my best guess
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#7 Postby skyline385 » Sat Apr 30, 2022 12:25 pm

Stormybajan wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:A negative ENSO usually means below-average wind shear in the Western Atlantic, especially during autumn. However, many seasons could not take advantage of these conditions. From 1995 to 2021, there were 15 -ENSO seasons (1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2017, 2020, and 2021), 9 of which (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2017, and 2021) failed to have 2 or more storms attain major hurricane intensity in ON (October and November). Furthermore, 4 of those (2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021) failed to attain 1 major hurricane during ON.

Summary:

  • 2+ major hurricanes during ON: 1995, 2001, 2005, 2008, 2016, and 2020
  • 1 major hurricane during ON: 1996, 1998, 1999, 2011, and 2017
  • 0 major hurricanes during ON: 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021

The question is: why do some -ENSO seasons fail to take advantage of theoretically favorable conditions?

Some of these can easily be answered: 2007 and 2021 had strong Atlantic Niños, suppressing the ITCZ to the south; and 2000 was a -AMM year. However, some of these make little sense: why did 2010 fail to produce a single major hurricane during ON. It had a -PDO, +AMM, +AMO, and no strong Atlantic Niño; plus, it was ultimately a strong La Niña? What ASO conditions do 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021 share that the others do not? What ASO conditions do 1996, 1998, 1999, 2011, and 2017 share that the others do not?

My guy 2010 literally had FIVE (5) hurricanes in October..it doesnt get much more active than that :blowup:


5 hurricanes which struggled and just made to Cat 1/2, and three of these were in the Caribbean in October in a season with record levels of warmth. As for the other two, Shary was a 75mph shorty and Otto quickly transitioned to extratropical.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#8 Postby aspen » Sat Apr 30, 2022 12:37 pm

JetFuel_SE wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:A negative ENSO usually means below-average wind shear in the Western Atlantic, especially during autumn. However, many seasons could not take advantage of these conditions. From 1995 to 2021, there were 15 -ENSO seasons (1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2017, 2020, and 2021), 9 of which (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2017, and 2021) failed to have 2 or more storms attain major hurricane intensity in ON (October and November). Furthermore, 4 of those (2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021) failed to attain 1 major hurricane during ON.

Summary:

  • 2+ major hurricanes during ON: 1995, 2001, 2005, 2008, 2016, and 2020
  • 1 major hurricane during ON: 1996, 1998, 1999, 2011, and 2017
  • 0 major hurricanes during ON: 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021

The question is: why do some -ENSO seasons fail to take advantage of theoretically favorable conditions?

Some of these can easily be answered: 2007 and 2021 had strong Atlantic Niños, suppressing the ITCZ to the south; and 2000 was a -AMM year. However, some of these make little sense: why did 2010 fail to produce a single major hurricane during ON. It had a -PDO, +AMM, +AMO, and no strong Atlantic Niño; plus, it was ultimately a strong La Niña? What ASO conditions do 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2021 share that the others do not? What ASO conditions do 1996, 1998, 1999, 2011, and 2017 share that the others do not?

2010 had massive dry air problems in the Caribbean, where October/November development is favored.

That didn’t stop Paula, Richard, and Tobias from peaking at Cat 2s in the Caribbean during ON. Sure none of them became majors, but multiple late-season Caribbean majors is a very rare occurrence anyways — 2005 with Wilma and Beta; 2020 with Delta, Eta, and Iota; maybe a few others I can’t remember off the top of my head.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#9 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Apr 30, 2022 3:58 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:We could even dedicate an entire Storm2k thread on what happened in 2013.


yes, very intriguing; the PTSD from that year has caused a nearly uncountable amount of erroneous comparisons over the years, with absolutely each and every one busting completely and entirely.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#10 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Apr 30, 2022 4:28 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:We could even dedicate an entire Storm2k thread on what happened in 2013.


yes, very intriguing; the PTSD from that year has caused a nearly uncountable amount of erroneous comparisons over the years, with absolutely each and every one busting completely and entirely.


2013 is literally the boogeyman of Atlantic hurricane seasons. That is, the fact that it happened really caused scientists and wx enthusiasts to rethink about the idea that a -ENSO state alone and warm sst anomalies would guarantee a busy season. I think it is super important to understand that a bust and a underperformance of that magnitude, let alone predicting it in advance given typical criteria like ENSO state, sst anomalies, etc., is likely not going to happen for a while. Predicting a 2013 will happen this year is just as ridiculous as predicting a 2005 will happen this year, for example.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#11 Postby tolakram » Sat Apr 30, 2022 7:45 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I mean, I think of all the -ENSO seasons that underperformed, 2013 is by far the one that intrigues me the most. We could even dedicate an entire Storm2k thread on what happened in 2013.


Just about every other thread in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 ... was devoted to 2013. :lol: After 2013,in the midst of the major hurricane landfall drought, dry air became THE problem parroted every year. Each dust outbreak was a season killer, even though Saharan dust outbreaks are fairly common and not the primary reason for the slow 2013 season. We had more than a few members thinking we would never get hit with a major hurricane again, even though that made no sense.

If anything 2013 should teach us that no single indicator, ENSO or otherwise, is going to define a season. 2013, similar to 2005, will probably never repeat, we just don't know.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#12 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:22 pm

tolakram wrote:2013, similar to 2005, will probably never repeat, we just don't know.


Yeah, well said - it's the antithesis to 2005.

For me the most egregious was the 2013-casting up until about 23 August, back in 2017. Of course, I'm cheating here by using the power of hindsight, but man.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#13 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:28 pm

How about a +ENSO season the EPAC failed to take advantage of? How does the strong el Nino of 2009 have less quality than the moderate la Nina of 2011? Granted, it had way more named storms, but that's about it. Pitiful ACE too for a 1.6 C event (granted this was within the broader -PDO regime, so eh)

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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Apr 30, 2022 10:11 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:How about a +ENSO season the EPAC failed to take advantage of? How does the strong el Nino of 2009 have less quality than the moderate la Nina of 2011? Granted, it had way more named storms, but that's about it. Pitiful ACE too for a 1.6 C event (granted this was within the broader -PDO regime, so eh)

https://i.imgur.com/zICVNS2.png

https://i.imgur.com/i9fxlFs.png


127 ACE is pretty good for the EPAC given it struggles to get past >100 most non-warm ENSO/-AMO years, especially considering 2009 had one of the strongest individual hurricanes in the basin. 2011 is definitely the more anomalous season relative to the base state.

As for the original question in the title, 2007 is the most obvious one aside from 2013. Strong La Niña yet only 73 ACE is very underwhelming. A case could be made for 2000 and 2011 as well, but they were still respectable. Most -ENSO/+AMO seasons deliver with a few memorable storms and even you can have some surprises occasionally with +ENSO if the WAM cooperates or a Modoki happens.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#15 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 30, 2022 11:56 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:How about a +ENSO season the EPAC failed to take advantage of? How does the strong el Nino of 2009 have less quality than the moderate la Nina of 2011? Granted, it had way more named storms, but that's about it. Pitiful ACE too for a 1.6 C event (granted this was within the broader -PDO regime, so eh)

https://i.imgur.com/zICVNS2.png

https://i.imgur.com/i9fxlFs.png

2019 for sure. Simply due to the preseason hype and the amount of slop we endured instead.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#16 Postby aspen » Sun May 01, 2022 5:34 am

Kingarabian wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:How about a +ENSO season the EPAC failed to take advantage of? How does the strong el Nino of 2009 have less quality than the moderate la Nina of 2011? Granted, it had way more named storms, but that's about it. Pitiful ACE too for a 1.6 C event (granted this was within the broader -PDO regime, so eh)

https://i.imgur.com/zICVNS2.png

https://i.imgur.com/i9fxlFs.png

2019 for sure. Simply due to the preseason hype and the amount of slop we endured instead.

Barbara probably contributed to the disappointment in 2019. A borderline Cat 5 at the beginning of July sure seems like it would’ve been a harbinger of a very active and high-quality season, but nope. Nearly three years later and the EPac has yet to (officially) produce anything as strong; Douglas and Felicia might’ve hit 130+ kt, but without recon, it’s difficult to assess those kinds of storms with very smooth but only B/W CDOs.
Last edited by aspen on Sun May 01, 2022 6:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#17 Postby Teban54 » Sun May 01, 2022 5:51 am

aspen wrote:but without recon, it’s difficult to asses those kinds of storms with very smooth but only B/W CDOs.

Oops
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#18 Postby aspen » Sun May 01, 2022 6:52 am

Teban54 wrote:
aspen wrote:but without recon, it’s difficult to asses those kinds of storms with very smooth but only B/W CDOs.

Oops

Fixed lol

I also almost forgot about Kiko in 2019. That was agony. I’ve never seen a weakened storm just refuse to go away. I also think Erick might’ve been stronger than 115 kt due to its pinhole eye making Dvorak estimates difficult.
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 01, 2022 1:52 pm

aspen wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:How about a +ENSO season the EPAC failed to take advantage of? How does the strong el Nino of 2009 have less quality than the moderate la Nina of 2011? Granted, it had way more named storms, but that's about it. Pitiful ACE too for a 1.6 C event (granted this was within the broader -PDO regime, so eh)

https://i.imgur.com/zICVNS2.png

https://i.imgur.com/i9fxlFs.png

2019 for sure. Simply due to the preseason hype and the amount of slop we endured instead.

Barbara probably contributed to the disappointment in 2019. A borderline Cat 5 at the beginning of July sure seems like it would’ve been a harbinger of a very active and high-quality season, but nope. Nearly three years later and the EPac has yet to (officially) produce anything as strong; Douglas and Felicia might’ve hit 130+ kt, but without recon, it’s difficult to assess those kinds of storms with very smooth but only B/W CDOs.


EPAC is very dependent on sub-seasonal variability so one impressive storm in JAS doesn't have too much correlation on the entire season. 2019 has an easy explanation however given the cold tongue that emerged near the equatorial EPAC during the summer, which can create issues (see 1977 and 2004 as well).
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Re: -ENSO seasons that failed to take advantage of favorable conditions

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 01, 2022 2:04 pm

If we were to extend the original question back a bit, 1973-75 look really terrible for such a strong -ENSO compared to other robust -ENSO events in a -AMO. 1988/89 and the strong Ninas in the early 20th century generally resulted in at least respectable seasons yet that stretch was not much more active than El Ninos and neutrals in that same era.
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