How strong will this -ENSO be for DJF?

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How strong will this -ENSO be for DJF?

Poll ended at Tue May 31, 2022 8:49 pm

Cool-neutral (0.0 C to -0.5 C)
1
5%
Weak Nina (-0.5 C to -1.0 C)
7
32%
Moderate Nina (-1.0 C to -1.5 C)
9
41%
Strong Nina (-1.5 C to -2.0 C)
4
18%
Very strong Nina (-2.0 C or below)
1
5%
 
Total votes: 22

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AlphaToOmega
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How strong will this -ENSO be for DJF?

#1 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon May 02, 2022 8:40 pm

With a -ENSO all but certain for this winter, the big question is how strong it will be: it could be cool-neutral, a weak La Nina, moderate La Nina, strong La Nina, or very strong La Nina.

Options:

  • Cool-neutral (0.0 C to -0.5 C)
  • Weak Nina (-0.5 C to -1.0 C)
  • Moderate Nina (-1.0 C to -1.5 C)
  • Strong Nina (-1.5 C to -2.0 C)
  • Very strong Nina (-2.0 C or below)
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Re: How strong will this -ENSO be for DJF?

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 02, 2022 8:49 pm

Made this question as a poll that will close om May 31rst at 9:49 PM EDT.
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Re: How strong will this -ENSO be for DJF?

#3 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon May 02, 2022 9:47 pm

Going with weak La Nina, although near -0.9 to -1.0 C at its peak (so bordering moderate territory).
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Re: How strong will this -ENSO be for DJF?

#4 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 02, 2022 11:05 pm

Should be a moderateish La Nina.
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Re: How strong will this -ENSO be for DJF?

#5 Postby Blown Away » Tue May 03, 2022 6:54 am

Image
My guess, neutral to maybe just slightly warm-neutral.
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Re: How strong will this -ENSO be for DJF?

#6 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue May 03, 2022 2:33 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/n9RLn70.jpg
My guess, neutral to maybe just slightly warm-neutral.


I wounder why many of the models do not show a La Nina (not even the CFSv2 shows a bona fide La Nina for this winter) despite:

  • The currently below-average SSTs
  • The currently cool subsurface
  • The current strong +SOI
  • The +SOI that is expected to continue throughout this summer and autumn
  • The La Nina-like VP pattern expected to form
  • The knowledge that -ENSO or +ENSO conditions usually strengthen throughout the winter
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