Low pressure inland over the Carolinas

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Will low pressure make transition to subtropical or not?

Poll ended at Mon May 09, 2022 7:40 am

Yes
11
34%
No
21
66%
 
Total votes: 32

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cycloneye
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Low pressure inland over the Carolinas

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 07, 2022 7:40 am

Creating a poll about the low that will meaender for a few days in Western Atlantic and the big question is if it's going to make the transition to subtropical or not. Apart from voting, let's have good discussions about this. Poll will close for voting on Monday at 8:40 AM EDT.
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#2 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat May 07, 2022 8:28 am

For those of you who voted yes, why? And for no, why? I personally voted for yes, because I just think that while the waters may not be ridiculously warm, I do think that the Gulf Stream will very much so aid in the process of even at least turning this into a short lived T/ST system
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#3 Postby tropicwatch » Sat May 07, 2022 9:36 am

Waiting to see if we get something out of the NHC today or tomorrow. I know that is kind of cheating 8-)
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#4 Postby Old-TimeCane » Sat May 07, 2022 11:20 am

Voted yes. More hoping for yes than anything, but I do believe it could easily happen. We could use the rain here, and it failed to give us much yesterday. It owes us! :lol:
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 07, 2022 11:50 am

Here is the complex system moving torwards the water.

Image
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#6 Postby tropicwatch » Sat May 07, 2022 12:07 pm

Looks like it is going to come offshore a little further south than expected.
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 07, 2022 12:26 pm

tropicwatch wrote:Waiting to see if we get something out of the NHC today or tomorrow. I know that is kind of cheating 8-)


From the 18 UTC discussion.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat May 7 2022


For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will prolong fresh to
strong SW to W winds off the Florida coast, just north of the
Bahamas through this evening. The front will move eastward, from
31N73W to the NW Bahamas on Mon, causing fresh to locally strong
winds to shift to the west central Atlantic waters. A cut-off low
is going to intensify off the North Carolina coast Mon night
through Tue night, which should bring fresh to strong northerly
winds and rough seas off the Georgia/Florida coast.
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#8 Postby AnnularCane » Sat May 07, 2022 1:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:Here is the complex system moving torwards the water.

https://i.imgur.com/yR46W4b.gif


That wouldn't happen to be the same system that produced all the severe weather this week, would it?
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#9 Postby OuterBanker » Sat May 07, 2022 1:55 pm

I guess the question that I have is will it get into the gulf stream. If so will it transition before the trough kills it around Thurs or Fri. Anyway it's going to be rough either way for us with erosion and over wash. Latest nws coastal water forecast for us:
AMZ150-080600-
S of Currituck Beach Light to Oregon Inlet NC out 20 nm-
104 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.THIS AFTERNOON...NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt
late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave Detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds. A slight
chance of showers and tstms late.
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to
5 ft. Wave Detail: S 5 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of tstms.
Showers, mainly in the evening.
.SUN...N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to
25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to
8 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft in the afternoon. Wave Detail: NE
7 ft at 9 seconds, building to NE 10 ft at 9 seconds in the
afternoon. A chance of showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds around 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas
10 to 13 ft, building to 12 to 13 ft after midnight. Wave Detail:
NE 12 ft at 9 seconds, building to NE 13 ft at 11 seconds after
midnight. A chance of showers.
.MON...N winds 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 12 to
14 ft. Wave Detail: NE 14 ft at 12 seconds. A chance of showers.
.MON NIGHT...N winds 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas
13 to 15 ft. Wave Detail: NE 14 ft at 12 seconds. A chance of
showers.
.TUE...N winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 14 ft. A chance of
showers.
.WED...N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming NE around 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 13 ft, subsiding to 8 to 10 ft. A chance of
showers.
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#10 Postby FireRat » Sat May 07, 2022 4:50 pm

Aha, so this is what's been causing the wild weather around my area yesterday and today, we had heavy rains and lightning, you can feel the energy with this thing in the Carolinas. Kind of tropical-ish rains, voted yes.
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#11 Postby tropicwatch » Sat May 07, 2022 5:01 pm

It appears that two distinct lows are coming off the coast.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/13/GOES16-EUS-13-1000x1000.gif
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#12 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Sat May 07, 2022 5:44 pm

tropicwatch wrote:It appears that two distinct lows are coming off the coast.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/13/GOES16-EUS-13-1000x1000.gif


Yes, I noticed that as well and both are drifting southward. Of the two the one in the Carolinas for now would likely have the better chance. I voted NO... number one: because I think they've gone a bit giddy with naming systems coming off the Atlantic coast--they may have "tropical characteristics" but I feel nearly half a dozen last year shouldn't have even been named--my opinion. That said, if this one gets convection going completely around it before that trough pulls it in... they likely will get their May storm early this year. If not... oh well, lots of other lows coming off the continent surely one of them gets a name before June 1... gotta keep that 8 year streak going. (Yes I know it will be 8).

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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#13 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Sat May 07, 2022 6:32 pm

I'm voting no considering how broad this system is. I'm not sure if it will be able to consolidate before making landfall, and models aren't very keen on that happening. Some GFS runs have shown that, though, so I think it does have a chance, but I believe it's more likely for any pre-season storm this year to be something else later in the month.
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?l

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 08, 2022 8:16 am

East of Cape Hatteras.

Image
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#15 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun May 08, 2022 9:13 am

I think it will be an occluded low. I’m not seeing this building thermodynamic convection.
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#16 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sun May 08, 2022 9:26 am

Gonna have to say no for now, model support has been shoddy. GFS and CMC have been on and off with it, Euro doesn't develop it period, etc. It's a very fickle synoptic setup so it makes sense, I suppose. I'm more interested in what could happen later this month, possibly a CAG developing as the MJO enters phase 1.
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#17 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun May 08, 2022 1:37 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Gonna have to say no for now, model support has been shoddy. GFS and CMC have been on and off with it, Euro doesn't develop it period, etc. It's a very fickle synoptic setup so it makes sense, I suppose. I'm more interested in what could happen later this month, possibly a CAG developing as the MJO enters phase 1.


Gotta say, starting to agree with you here. We may get a little surprise, but not banking on it anymore. I do think there's a decent shot we see a bona fide TS sometime around the May 20 timeframe, looks like ensembles and the GFS are potentially hinting at a WCAR steup there
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 09, 2022 7:25 am

There is the low pressure.

Image
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#19 Postby tropicwatch » Mon May 09, 2022 8:43 am

That is somewhat impressive and the shear above it is not too bad.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=
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Re: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast / Will it make transition to Subtropical or not?

#20 Postby toad strangler » Mon May 09, 2022 8:46 am

cycloneye wrote:There is the low pressure.

https://i.imgur.com/0WIvvd7.gif


Well it's in the right historical area for an early spin up that's for sure.
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