What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

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Ptarmigan
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#21 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed May 18, 2022 9:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'd like to have another season like 1914, but perhaps with one fewer storm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1914_Atlantic_hurricane_season


I suspect 1914 had more storms that went undetected.
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#22 Postby SconnieCane » Thu May 26, 2022 7:53 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
TheAustinMan wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:1933 or 1893 today would likely have had close to 30 storms in each of them. Who knows how many escaped in the ocean unaware...


One wonders how social media would respond to something like September 4, 1933, when two high-end Category 3 hurricanes made landfall on the lower 48 within 24 hours of each other. Brownsville ,Texas, recorded 949 mb / 70 kt, which suggested 940 mb / 110 kt at landfall. Jupiter, Florida, recorded a 948 mb central pressure.

Source: US Daily Weather Maps
https://i.imgur.com/h2N4cLU.png

Of course, there's also 1837, when it's believed Florida was hit by two hurricanes on the same day on two separate occasions.


I'm just waiting for that kind of day to happen again. Imagine the crippling dilemma that major news organizations, let alone storm chasers and meteorologists, are going to face in terms of which storm to cover, especially if both storms target populated regions of the US :wink:


Back in August 2020 I made a version of the "two buttons" meme depicting chasers trying to choose between Laura and Marco (at the time, some model runs were suggesting that they both might become strong hurricanes and threaten different parts of the U.S. coast). Obviously that did not come to pass, but I didn't know there was historical precedent for such an occurrence.
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#23 Postby al78 » Mon May 30, 2022 4:14 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:I can just imagine the posts for Andrew in 1992 like

Sheared and won’t do anything

It’s a tropical wave, lost its circulation

Doesn’t have enough time to do anything significant

To

Andrew is going through Rapid Intensification and is a cat 4 with 945 pressure

Is now 175 mph with 922 pressure near The Bahamas

Is doing an eyewall meld on its way to Miami

Is landfalling at the NHC and measuring 922 pressure with sustained winds of 165mph with gusts to 190+


Wasn't Andrew assessed as a category 4 hurricane with 145 mph sustained winds at its south Florida landfall at the time, and was upgraded some number of years later?
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#24 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon May 30, 2022 6:13 pm

al78 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:I can just imagine the posts for Andrew in 1992 like

Sheared and won’t do anything

It’s a tropical wave, lost its circulation

Doesn’t have enough time to do anything significant

To

Andrew is going through Rapid Intensification and is a cat 4 with 945 pressure

Is now 175 mph with 922 pressure near The Bahamas

Is doing an eyewall meld on its way to Miami

Is landfalling at the NHC and measuring 922 pressure with sustained winds of 165mph with gusts to 190+


Wasn't Andrew assessed as a category 4 hurricane with 145 mph sustained winds at its south Florida landfall at the time, and was upgraded some number of years later?


Yes indeed. I feel like this grand reanalysis project is going to find some storms that were stronger than previously thought. Like we saw this with Betsy, Inez, and Beulah, and I have a gut feeling that when 1974 is assessed, Carmen may be upgraded in some fashion too.
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#25 Postby 115MphAgatha » Mon May 30, 2022 6:28 pm

Speaking of Beulah it had one of the most hilarious tracks I've ever seen.
Image
It smashes into Texas and then it's all like "OH NO! I'M SORRY! TAKE ME BACK, TAKE ME BACK!"

It does not make it back to the ocean lol
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#26 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon May 30, 2022 6:29 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'd like to have another season like 1914, but perhaps with one fewer storm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1914_Atlantic_hurricane_season


I suspect 1914 had more storms that went undetected.


Based on available writings from 1914, and some records limitations back then, 1914 might look like if it was today. June 1914 featured frost advisories for the eastern United States, and temperatures 30º below average, so I don't think there were any June storms. Then it had two weak coastal storms in July. In early August, the third storm passed near Cape Cod, and maybe there was a short-lived hurricane over the Atlantic that got missed, a la Hurricane Danny in 2015. In September, there was the Georgia TS (which is the only storm in the official record for the season), and a possible tropical storm in September, which HURDAT investigated and said was frontal - with today's technology, maybe they would've found a brief sloppy TS/STS with today's technology. And let's add another hurricane that got missed due to WW1 disruptions. There was then an October coastal storm, and let's add one more subtropical-origin storm to bring it to nine.

My rationale for the above? 1914 was right at the start of World War I, so typical shipping routes were disrupted. An average season might have a short-lived hurricane, or even major hurricane, that was undetected before the satellite era, like Danny in 2015, or Julia in 2010. I bet there would also be a few storms subtropical in origin in the northern half of the basin, like Olga 01 or Florence 94. A season without activity in the Caribbean is rare, but it happened in 1982, 1992, and 1997, and nearly happened in 2015. I think 1982 is the best analogy for a 1914 type of season, what it might look like nowadays. Alberto, one of two hurricanes, actually dissipated in the Gulf of Mexico. South Florida was much less populated back in 1914, so it's conceivable a storm like that could exist. The June 1982 subtropical storm might not have gotten classified in 1914, but it would leave traces.

I looked up archived reports from the Monthly Weather Review. July 1914 mentions two possible East Coast tropical storms - https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/42/7/1520-0493_1914_42_458_sawfj_2_0_co_2.xml?rskey=rRSwaO&result=37&tab_body=pdf

On the evening of the 4th the wind circulation over Georgia indicated the development of a disturbance over that region. On the morning of the 6th vessel reports indicated the presence of this disturbance off the south Atlantic coast 200 or 300 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras. By the morning of the 7th it was over Long Island with increased energy, high winds being reported at Nantucket and Block Island. It passed to the Grand Banks during the 48 hours following.
...
During the night of the 26th-27th a low developed over the Middle Atlantic States and on the morning of the 28th was near Norfolk, Va. In the 24 hours following it passed off the coast, and during the nest several days proceeded slowly north-northeastward until at the end of the month it was southeast of Nantucket.


The August 1914 issue - https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/42/8/1520-0493_1914_42_504_sawfa_2_0_co_2.xml?rskey=G4VMs7&result=6&tab_body=pdf
On the 5th there was a moderate depression just south of Nantucket, Mass., with a northeastward movement, and small-craft warnings were ordered for the New England coast. The disturbance passed off rapidly, however, and the winds were only fresh.


The October 1914 issue - https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/42/10/1520-0493_1914_42_593_sawfo_2_0_co_2.xml?rskey=G4VMs7&result=10&tab_body=pdf
At this time also there was a moderate disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico with a marked high pressure area over eastern New York. Storm warnings were therefore ordered at 10 a.m. from Savannah, Ga., to Norfolk, Va., and fresh to moderate strong winds occurred during the day. At 8 .m. of the 2nd, the Gulf disturbance appeared to be a little more threatening and storm warnings were ordered at 930 p.m. from Savannah, Ga., to Fort Monroe, VA. There was no further development, however, and on the morning of the 3d the warnings were ordered clown. There were still some evidences of the disturbance over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and small-craft warnings to this effect were issued. On the morning of the 4th there was a tropical disturbance near the mouth of the Yucatan Channel, accompanied by heavy rains but without winds of consequence, and advisory messages to this effect were at once sent to all coast stations between Boston and New Orleans. The disturbance did not develop materially and no further advices were necessary. On the morning of the 4th there was a moderate depression some distance off the North Carolina coast with marked high pressure to the northward and small-craft warnings were therefore ordered for the extreme southern New England coast. These were followed by fresh to strong northeast winds.


That brings the season up to nine named storms and two or so hurricanes - this is below average, but the average number of storms has been going up as our technology improves. When I first started tracking hurricanes in the 1990s, the average season had 9 storms, but now that number is up to 14. I think this is a realistic look at what 1914 might've looked like today.
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon May 30, 2022 9:20 pm

1914 was during a negative AMO, was during a 2nd year El Niño, and unlike some of the seasons during that -AMO period, the Sahel region during that time frame was historically dry and IIRC in 1914 Jamaica was also record dry. I totally can believe nothing of tropical origins formed that year, given that 1983 had nothing off tropical origins in a very similar state, and we’ve seen years like 1982 and 1991 of a similar state where only 1 named storm formed from tropical origins. A few random storms likely formed in 1914 at higher latitudes as is the case during every season, however, but I’d be surprised if ACE was >25 or so.
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