What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

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AtlanticWind
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What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#1 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu May 12, 2022 12:15 am

I have been looking at historic seasons from the 1800s and early 1900s and contemplating the impacts
if they happened this year.

One of the first ones that jumped out out me was 1893.

On August 17th a Cat 3 struck Puerto Rico and the eye was over the island for 7 hours,
Meanwhile a hurricane was headed for the NYC area that would strike on August 24th
as a Cat 1... at the same time a Cape Verde storm was on the way that would strike the savannah area
on August 27th as a Cat 3.

Quite a wild August, Hard to imagine what kind of coverage in the media, not to mention how stretched thin
the resources to help eveyone affected in such a small time period would be.

Then continuing on a Cat 2 hits Louisiana on Sept 7th.

But the season wasnt done as a Cat 4 made landfall in Louisiana -Alabama area on October 2nd.
And a then a Cat 3 makes landfall near Myrtle beach on October 13th.

It was one crazy year.
Last edited by AtlanticWind on Thu May 12, 2022 2:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#2 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu May 12, 2022 2:18 am

1886 is also an interesting season as it had 3 hurricanes make landfall on the Gulf coast in June.

Haven't seen a June like that that I can remember.
Also had a hurricane make landfall in the Gulf in July.

The season went on to have 4 notable majors with 2 making landfall in the U.S. gulf coast .
10 hurricanes in all with 7 Gulf coast strikes from Florida to Texas

It would be a season we would talking about for a long time if it occurred now.
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#3 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu May 12, 2022 9:04 am

Imagine the 1992 season, except it happens in 2022.

Just imagine how monetarily costly Andrew would have been.
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#4 Postby al78 » Thu May 12, 2022 9:25 am

Or this one occurring today which happened a century ago, since when there has been nothing comparable around Tampa and no-one alive there has experienced such an event:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_Tampa_Bay_hurricane

Make it a cat 4 and raise the storm surge funnelled up the bay to 20+ft and you have an extreme disaster.
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#5 Postby Iceresistance » Thu May 12, 2022 10:08 am

1933 would be talked about for a very long time, highest ACE ever recorded in the ATL.
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#6 Postby toad strangler » Thu May 12, 2022 11:25 am

al78 wrote:Or this one occurring today which happened a century ago, since when there has been nothing comparable around Tampa and no-one alive there has experienced such an event:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_Tampa_Bay_hurricane

Make it a cat 4 and raise the storm surge funnelled up the bay to 20+ft and you have an extreme disaster.


Tampa's run of luck has been astounding. You would think it is a prime target for late season W Caribbean re-curving systems.
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#7 Postby zal0phus » Thu May 12, 2022 1:21 pm

toad strangler wrote:
al78 wrote:Or this one occurring today which happened a century ago, since when there has been nothing comparable around Tampa and no-one alive there has experienced such an event:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_Tampa_Bay_hurricane

Make it a cat 4 and raise the storm surge funnelled up the bay to 20+ft and you have an extreme disaster.


Tampa's run of luck has been astounding. You would think it is a prime target for late season W Caribbean re-curving systems.


Cosigned. I have a dreadful feeling that Tampa's luck may run out this year, or at least within the decade. Dumb luck can only continue so long. :cry:
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#8 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu May 12, 2022 4:02 pm

Talking about Tampa Bay , I came across 1848 hurricane season where a likely cat 3 or 4 hit
the Tampa area in September and then another strong hurricane hit the same area a few weeks later
in October.
That would a tough 1/2 punch with todays population .
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#9 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 16, 2022 2:20 pm

1933 or 1893 today would likely have had close to 30 storms in each of them. Who knows how many escaped in the ocean unaware...
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#10 Postby TheAustinMan » Mon May 16, 2022 3:19 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:1933 or 1893 today would likely have had close to 30 storms in each of them. Who knows how many escaped in the ocean unaware...


One wonders how social media would respond to something like September 4, 1933, when two high-end Category 3 hurricanes made landfall on the lower 48 within 24 hours of each other. Brownsville ,Texas, recorded 949 mb / 70 kt, which suggested 940 mb / 110 kt at landfall. Jupiter, Florida, recorded a 948 mb central pressure.

Source: US Daily Weather Maps
Image

Of course, there's also 1837, when it's believed Florida was hit by two hurricanes on the same day on two separate occasions.
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#11 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon May 16, 2022 3:26 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:1933 or 1893 today would likely have had close to 30 storms in each of them. Who knows how many escaped in the ocean unaware...


One wonders how social media would respond to something like September 4, 1933, when two high-end Category 3 hurricanes made landfall on the lower 48 within 24 hours of each other. Brownsville ,Texas, recorded 949 mb / 70 kt, which suggested 940 mb / 110 kt at landfall. Jupiter, Florida, recorded a 948 mb central pressure.

Source: US Daily Weather Maps
https://i.imgur.com/h2N4cLU.png

Of course, there's also 1837, when it's believed Florida was hit by two hurricanes on the same day on two separate occasions.


I'm just waiting for that kind of day to happen again. Imagine the crippling dilemma that major news organizations, let alone storm chasers and meteorologists, are going to face in terms of which storm to cover, especially if both storms target populated regions of the US :wink:
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#12 Postby Teban54 » Mon May 16, 2022 6:19 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
TheAustinMan wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:1933 or 1893 today would likely have had close to 30 storms in each of them. Who knows how many escaped in the ocean unaware...


One wonders how social media would respond to something like September 4, 1933, when two high-end Category 3 hurricanes made landfall on the lower 48 within 24 hours of each other. Brownsville ,Texas, recorded 949 mb / 70 kt, which suggested 940 mb / 110 kt at landfall. Jupiter, Florida, recorded a 948 mb central pressure.

Source: US Daily Weather Maps
https://i.imgur.com/h2N4cLU.png

Of course, there's also 1837, when it's believed Florida was hit by two hurricanes on the same day on two separate occasions.


I'm just waiting for that kind of day to happen again. Imagine the crippling dilemma that major news organizations, let alone storm chasers and meteorologists, are going to face in terms of which storm to cover, especially if both storms target populated regions of the US :wink:

Not limited to the US, but IIRC Irma and Jose came really close to doing this (two strong major hurricanes approaching land at the same time), and would have pulled it off if only Jose tracked slightly further west and made landfall. That would have also meant Barbuda would be hit by two Cat 4/5 hurricanes within a week.

Hanna and Douglas 2020 were also approaching the US at the same time and sometimes appeared together in the news.
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#13 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 16, 2022 11:36 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:1933 or 1893 today would likely have had close to 30 storms in each of them. Who knows how many escaped in the ocean unaware...


One wonders how social media would respond to something like September 4, 1933, when two high-end Category 3 hurricanes made landfall on the lower 48 within 24 hours of each other. Brownsville ,Texas, recorded 949 mb / 70 kt, which suggested 940 mb / 110 kt at landfall. Jupiter, Florida, recorded a 948 mb central pressure.

Source: US Daily Weather Maps
https://i.imgur.com/h2N4cLU.png

Of course, there's also 1837, when it's believed Florida was hit by two hurricanes on the same day on two separate occasions.


I'd think you'd see more in Florida, but they would have to spread reporters to cover them both (what would Jim Cantore, and what would Josh Morgerman, choose in that scenario?) - and relief efforts afterward - from all of the country.

I wonder how they would cover the 1935 Labor Day hurricane if it happened today - would chasers and reporters actually go to the Keys to get in the eye of the monster on small islands?
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#14 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue May 17, 2022 10:06 am

Recent thought, but imagine how crazy Storm2k would go if the 1932 Cuba hurricane happened again :D
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#15 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue May 17, 2022 10:59 am

I can just imagine the posts for Andrew in 1992 like

Sheared and won’t do anything

It’s a tropical wave, lost its circulation

Doesn’t have enough time to do anything significant

To

Andrew is going through Rapid Intensification and is a cat 4 with 945 pressure

Is now 175 mph with 922 pressure near The Bahamas

Is doing an eyewall meld on its way to Miami

Is landfalling at the NHC and measuring 922 pressure with sustained winds of 165mph with gusts to 190+
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#16 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 17, 2022 1:56 pm

I'd like to have another season like 1914, but perhaps with one fewer storm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1914_Atlantic_hurricane_season
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#17 Postby toad strangler » Tue May 17, 2022 2:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'd like to have another season like 1914, but perhaps with one fewer storm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1914_Atlantic_hurricane_season


ha, that would make 2013 blush
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#18 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue May 17, 2022 2:54 pm

toad strangler wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'd like to have another season like 1914, but perhaps with one fewer storm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1914_Atlantic_hurricane_season


ha, that would make 2013 blush


You would need a record-breaking SAL and cool sst anomalies as well as a very strong El Nino to even get a remote shot at that! :D
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#19 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed May 18, 2022 8:03 pm

1935 would be a season that I wonder how the models would have had handled.

Would they have shown the labor storm developing from a depression to a sub 900 MB storm
in a few days? Would we believe them ?

And the the Yankee storm in November?
If the GFS was showing a hurricane coming from north of Bermuda in November to hit Miami, I think we
we would be saying the model has gone crazy. :lol:
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Re: What if these historic hurricane seasons happened now?

#20 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed May 18, 2022 9:07 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:1933 or 1893 today would likely have had close to 30 storms in each of them. Who knows how many escaped in the ocean unaware...


I always suspected 1893 and 1933 had many storms that went undetected. I always thought 1933 had 30 storms.
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